Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:04:04

Constituency Profile


Hughes, Carol

Orok, Calvin John

Robichaud, André

Wilson, Heather

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 110.03%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (213/232 polls, 91.11% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Carol Hughes

   Sault Ste. Marie
   (17/232 polls, 8.54% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Bryan Hayes

   Nickel Belt
   (2/232 polls, 0.35% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Claude Gravelle


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15 10 16 Dr. Bear
NDP support is solid in northern Ontario. Meanwhile the wheels on the conservative campaign bus are falling off and team blue knows it. Saying the conservatives will win a seat that went 50% NDP last time is just crazy talk. I can't wait until October 19th. I will toast when this riding is called for team orange.
15 10 15 HG
Carol Hughes is well liked throughout the region. She is a very hard worker and is very visible in many communities in this huge riding. Her bilingualism is a an asset as well. Another thing to consider is the growing anti-Harper sentiment being felt all over Canada. Many people, myself included, will throw their support behind the candidate that will prevent a Conservative from winning. In our case, Carol Hughes should easily retain her seat.
15 10 14 ND
Polls are inaccurate, I believe Mrs Huges is feeling the heat and seeing her support on highway 11 slipping away. Mr Robichaud is very well known with active members in all communities, his track record speaks for itself, he brought over 2 million dollars to small businesses and youth in his community. Imagine what he could do for this ridding. Robichaud is shaking it up, can't wait until October 19th. Small communities back each other up. To bad Mrs Huges does not live in a community in the ridding, I!m sure Sudbury has her back,
15 10 13 NJam101
CTV Northern Ontario-Oracle Poll for this district:
Among decided voters:
Hughes (NDP) 45%
Robichaud (CPC) 30%
Wilson (LPC) 20%
Orok (GPC) 5%
300 people polled by telephone with live interviewer. 18% were undecided. Margin of error +/- 5.6% 19/20
Source: http://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=726178
15 09 29 NJam101
I stand by what I wrote before. Easy NDP victory for Carol Hughes. The only two places in this district that I have been to in the last week are Foleyet and Chapleau. Every single lawn sign I saw was NDP. I'll be up in Kap and Hearst soon and will report but friends are telling me that it is heavily NDP as well. I imagine Elliot Lake, Espanola and Blind River will go NDP. She is a bilingual and francophone and has become very well known.
The fact that the CPC candidate André Robichaud is a bilingual francophone and from Kapuskasing really won't make any difference. Maybe a few more CPC votes in Kap and that's about it. I have never heard of him and I live in the region. Liberal votes will be higher than last time and it will be interesting to see who comes in second.
Never use province-wide polling results to make predictions for Northern Ontario. Especially when it comes to the NDP.
15 09 15 Dr.Bear
Will be a solid NDP win here, the polling numbers clearly show strong NDP support in Northern Ontario. A CPC gain? Please! They're down anywhere from 9 - 15% from last election. They're not picking up anything unless something extraordinary is happening in that riding.
15 09 10 Tony Ducey
Conservatives aren't winning here, they haven't won in this area since the 1800's, why now in a election where they're in 3rd place in the polls? NDP hold.
15 09 10 ERB
I believe that the NDP will hold the riding, may not be with the high numbers from the last election, but 1/2 way through the election, we have not seen any candidates, around our part of the riding, a few signs. In the past reasons, candidates did not come into the small communities, was the lack of time and the size of the Riding. There is no reason this time, they have all the time in the world, but I am sure they will just, sneak in for a few hours and head to those other larger areas to get votes. They should remember, that there are allot of voters in the small communities who make 'Algoma Manitoulin home.
15 09 08 NorthernDude
The riding will be a tight race between the CPC and NDP. The CPC have found an energetic, bilingual and well known candidate (Andre Robichaud) from the northern part of the riding, Kapuskasing to be specific. They will make strong gains along hwy 11. A must if they want to win, and they are making ground in the area already. The electorate has a good memory and still remembers the flip flop of Carol Hughes on the long gun registry. The incumbent also moved out of the riding. This is a close one...the CPC will squeak this one out.
15 09 01 ontheToulin
I live in this riding...A likely hold for the NDP...the Cons choice to nominate an unknown francophone from the far northern corner of this huge riding will in my view result in the Liberals moving from 3rd in '11 to 2nd in 2015.
15 08 23 A.S.
Mike Pearson may turn in his grave at the thought, but the way things are positioned now, the Cons are still, in 2015, likelier than the Libs to defeat Hughes over the gun registry issue--and their own candidate's a Franco-Ontarian from Kapuskasing, so there goes the 'Manitoulin and North Shore rump' argument. But I did say 'likelier', as opposed to 'likely'. And who knows how much added ballast the Dippers now have from MPP Bob Mantha's provincial whistle-blowing over the Algo Centre collapse--not that Hughes absolutely requires it, of course...
15 04 06 NJam101
Carol Hughes, who is fluently bilingual, is very popular and should have no trouble holding here. This district is rural and very spread out and not very well connected in many ways. The Northern portions are majority francophone. The largest community is Elliot Lake with a population of around 11,000. Rural Northern Ontario tends to vote NDP. Some areas such as Manitoulin Island (excluding First Nations) and some areas along the North shore of Lake Huron tend to be politically more to the right and conservative but Hughes will win big in mining and lumber areas.
15 03 29 monkey
While this will probably go NDP, I could see the Liberals retaking this as the NDP promises to bring back the gun registry which is quite unpopular in Northern Ontario whereas the Liberals promise to not bring it back. The Tories may win several communities at the very southern edge, but once you get beyond that they are a non-factor here.
15 03 23 DT
Mme Hughes is a popular local MP. The NDP usually does well in Northeastern Ontario, particularly among the francophone working class. Being Franco-Ontarian and an incumbent, she definitely has an edge that other candidates don't have. Easy NDP Hold.

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