Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-08 11:48:00

Constituency Profile


Cloutier, François

Hughes, Carol

Rekmans, Lorraine A.

Sturgeon, Ray

Carol Hughes

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • algoma-manitoulin (168/208 Polls)
  • nickel-belt (3/190 Polls)
  • timmins-james-bay (58/185 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 NJam101
    No doubt that Carol Hughes will win. A very weak region as a whole for Conservatives. Hearst which normally votes Liberal may switch big time to NDP. The long gun registry is not a major issue to the majority of people here. As ERB said, forestry and mining workers tend to be big NDP supporters.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    After Jack Layton's strong performance in the debate and considering how much the Liberals have to overcome, I really cannot see them retaking this. They may retake Sudbury, but not this one.
    11 04 14 binriso
    Conservatives literally had half the votes of the 2nd place Liberals last time. They wouldnt even be close to winning here this time.
    11 04 13 hunterHH
    Hughes is out, her flip flop on the LGR won't be forgotten. Lots of her votes were purely so the liberals St. Denis would lose this riding last election. Conservatives had a weak candidate, Hughs was the lesser of 2 evils.
    11 04 06 ERB
    I believe that this riding will stay with Carol and the NDP. Large part of the riding does have either Forestry or Mining at it's core. Both sectors large NDP supporters. The economics of the Riding is still hurting from the Forestry downfall and let us not forget it started with the Liberals, (both Federal and Provincial) doing nothing and then the conservatives did not raise a finger to help.
    11 04 05 John
    Well the reason this riding is so messed up is because people of Greater Sudbury and Temiskaming Shores complained when Sudbury was to be split into 3 electoral districts (Sudbury Center, Sudbury-Manitoulin, Sudbury - Temiskaming). The people of Temiskaming Shores felt a ‘greater connection’ with North Bay (same highway, etc), and Sudbury didn't want to be split. What resulted was the mess that is Algoma Manitoulin Kapuskasing. Why was Sudbury/Temiskaming Shores granted their wishes over Kap and Manitoulin? Because of bigger population numbers and the Liberals dividing it up strategically. You think people in Kap and Manitoulin are connected in anyway? No. Anyway, this is an NDP hold for sure.
    11 04 05 NJam101
    I agree that this riding is unusual in the way that communities are spread far apart over large areas that require lots of driving to travel within the riding. Campaigning must be quite the challenge and I agree with jeff316 that it must be hard to please most people in the different towns. The largest place is Elliot Lake with about 12,000 people. AMK is quite rural overall. In much of Canada outside Quebec, it would be a strongly Conservative riding but not in Northern Ontario. Manitoulin Island and some North shore communities along Lake Huron are more Conservative but they don't make up much of the riding's population. Forestry and mining towns do. These places are swinging more and more towards the NDP. Many are upset with the Liberals provincially over their lack of support for the ailing forestry industry and workers. The NDP both provincially and federally has been focusing on forestry issues. Especially in regards to one-industry towns that have lost their sawmill. As for mining, the NDP has always had a strong core base in mining towns. Some people think it's because of unionization but that's not mainly the case. Most people in mining are not unionized. Mining towns have volatile economies and often rely on government support in hard times. Miners don't have stable jobs and also want the government to be there if things don't go well. Carol Hughes has run in the last three elections and increased her support each time. She had 45% of the votes last time. There is no reason why she would lose votes given the ways things are in this riding.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing is likely one of Canada's top five hardest ridings to campaign in. There are larger and more far-flung ridings (NWT), but the problem with this riding is that every community is serviced by a road - meaning that there is the expectation that you're actually going to hit each town at least once. But almost none of them are accessible via a completely direct route from the last stop, meaning that it can be four or five or six hours just to get from one place to another - not more than an event or two a day. You have drive into other ridings just to be able to drive back into this one. Lumping the francophones voters of Hearst and Kap with places like Iron Bridge and Espanola and the Manitoulin crowd makes it difficult to appeal to everyone. It's crazy and was probably drawn up by the Liberals under the expectation that they'd never have to mount a strong campaign because they'd never lose it! This riding is so unwieldy that the Conservatives smartly passed on it and sent their resources to Sault Ste Marie. Hughes' vote total will drop but she'll retain the seat for another election. (But if the Conservatives win a majority, this could be her last win.)
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    This is really the NDP's to lose. The Liberals have a huge gap to overcome which seems unlikely but not impossible. Despite the opposition to the gun registry, the Tories are too weak to win although any votes they gain on this issue could have an impact depending on which party it comes from.
    11 04 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    No one's talking about this one. Seems like the CPC is ignoring this one and aiming elsewhere in Northern Ontario. Would make sense since they didn't do that well in '08. Liberals are probably too weak to retake this one just yet and should focus their energies on other more winnable ridings.
    10 04 10 PY
    I'm not arguing with you, A.S., regarding the 200-odd votes or so in Espanola. However, memories are long and amongst those I'm still in touch with in the riding, Carol Hughes has been a decent enough MP, though as NDP leader, Layton doesn't have quite the appeal that Broadbent did, especially when the latter was able to get the party to the 20% mark, unlike the former. I've also gotten the feeling that those voters who sat the last election out may well be regretting it now ('84 again, anyone?) and may not be in the mood to do so again. It also doesn't hurt that François Cloutier's background as a more-than-capable administrator (as was the case with Brent St. Denis and Maurice Foster) is familiar and could well be reassuring to long-time constituents...as for where local Conservative supporters will go electorally, it remains to be seen...will they hold their noses and continue to vote strategically for Hughes again or will they feel like they've already made their point and return to the Tory fold?
    Nonetheless, it'll be an interesting match-up as it'll be a battle of the ‘not bad, but not great (yet)’ combinations in Cloutier/Ignatieff vs. Hughes/Layton.
    09 12 26 A.S.
    Note to PY: as it so happens, Hughes won in Espanola in 2006, too (though not in 2004). Anyway, given the scale and universality (i.e. virtually *everywhere*, even Elliot Lake and Manitoulin) of Hughes' victory, I'm suspecting this is like Windsor West, i.e. a longtime Grit stronghold on the back of a political legend (even if twice-removed in this case), but the rudiments of NDP strength were always there, and now that the hump's been jumped, the old bond's been broken. And given how Iggy's not been the sort to channel that old-time northern Pearson populism (or, as in his Sudbury address, has fallen on his face in doing so), who knows if the incumbentless Grits might even end up ceding second place to the Tories--after all, the last Soo result proves that the CPC brand isn't necessarily kryptonite around these parts...
    09 11 18 binriso
    Honestly dont see the Liberals making any gains in the North other than possibly Sudbury this time. Not to mention the NDP knocking off an incumbent by more than 13 points and no doubt a weak CPC here means another NDP win.
    09 10 02 R.O.
    Willing to give the ndp an advantage here even though the riding has some considerable liberal history. think that the size of the riding and fact its so large and remote in places would make it very hard to campaign in. like to drive to the towns of wawa or say espanola in the same day would take hours if not the entire day. this gives the incumbent for such a riding a significant advantage if they have a strong team and are well known. now i don't think Carol Hughes is one the strongest ndp mp's in the north but there is a fair bit of ndp support here , we have to remember they almost won it provincially in 2007 and were very close in 2006 as well. Its tough to say what kind of candidate Francois Cloutier will be for the liberals but the fact long time mp Brent St Denis didn't even try to run again says something about there chances here.
    09 09 12 Marco Ricci
    The Liberals lost here by 13 points last time. That may be too large a margin to make up in one election. However, the NDP was able to jump from that far behind to winning in one election, so it seems possible that the Northern Ontario ridings could swing back by large margins as well.
    09 08 27 PY
    My hometown riding, though my parents have since left upon their retirement. I was disappointed to hear that there were that many people who decided to stay home during the last election, but they may be feeling guilty if not ashamed now at having done so...and when I looked at the raw numbers alone, I saw that the Tory vote went down compared to the election before last, which led me to believe that perhaps there may have been some strategic voting for the NDP on the part of Conservative supporters in the hopes of finally getting Brent St. Denis out.
    According to an old family friend who was close to the St. Denis campaign, Espanola went NDP by something like two hundred votes...going into the upcoming campaign, the question on my mind is whether as the town goes, so indeed goes this seat, but that'll depend on whether people are still buying into the Layton message and whether they feel that Hughes has been able to deliver.
    09 08 24 Del Prescott
    Francois Cloutier of Kapuskasing has won the Liberal Nomination on the third ballot after a travelling ballot box in Little Current, Blind River,Wawa, Hearst and Kap.

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