Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Brampton North

Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:39:21

Constituency Profile


Gill, Parm

Hundal, Harinderpal

Sahota, Ruby

Singh, Martin

Thornham, Pauline

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1840.46%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (143/186 polls, 78.39% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Parm Gill

   (31/186 polls, 15.71% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Bal Gosal

   Brampton West
   (12/186 polls, 5.90% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Kyle Seeback


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15 10 13 SC
Mainstreet poll for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting finds the Liberals and Tories 43/32 among all voters, and 46/37 amongst decided voters. 11% undecided.
15 10 14 Jeff S
Now moving this to Liberal.
15 10 13 South Islander
Mainstreet poll taken October 8 shows Liberal lead outside the MOE 46/37. Liberals have enjoyed further momentum in Ontario since then. Probably no longer TCTC.
15 10 14 JC
Parm Gill is cooked and Ruby Sahota is going to Ottawa, Mainstreet Research poll shows
46-Liberal Party
37-Conservative Party
14- NDP
15 10 08 Monkey Cheese
A slim lead for Parm Gill, but that was likely conducted before Forum's most recent poll that now has the Liberals leading in Ontario. It's also before Parm Gill found himself in controversy as he's currently being investigated by Elections Canada for accepting or charging money from unsuspecting donors without their consent. In a tight race like this scandals like this won't win him any favors. Still TCTC at this point.
15 10 06 Marco Ricci
It actually looks like the NDP is running 3rd here and that Singh may split the vote and Gill could be re-elected.
'Parm Gill with slim lead in Brampton North'
Forum Poll - October 5th
Parm Gill (39%) Conservative
Ruby Sahota (34%) Liberal
Martin Singh (24%) NDP
15 10 06 Jeff S
CPC 39 LPC 34 NDP 24.
Although CPC has the edge, on the chance of late strategic voting from NDP to LPC, I'd keep it TCTC.
15 10 03 R. Ay
This riding will be a slight NDP victory over the Liberals. NDP has a strong chance of winning this riding for a few key reasons:
1. He unites the two largest voting populations in this area - Sikh Canadians and White Canadians. Brampton North, especially east of Kennedy has ethnically, a strong Sikh presence. While the Liberal and Conservative candidates are also Sikh, Martin Singh is Orthodox. Sikhs will believe their values/principles are upheld better with him. The white population in this riding - will also identify with his east coast roots as many are from up North or east coast.
2. A large small-business owning population. Martin Singh is also a small business owner. = Ta-Da!
3. Working families... Brampton as a whole has a maybe 15% unshakable working class, NDP-voting population. Families living in basements or town homes who feel more attached to the NDP promise.
4. Lack of local Liberal momentum, although better known National leader.
Predictions for Brampton North: 35% NDP, 32% Liberal, 28% Conservative, 4% Green, 1% Other
15 08 29 Monkey Cheese
I agree with JC's comment from earlier. This is not a safe lock for Parm Gill who Jan correctly noted is a very polarizing figure. The recent controversy surrounding a Liberal supporter's credit card information being used to donate to Parm Gill's campaign isn't something that's going to sit well with people. TCTC is probably The right call until we start seeing some regional and local riding polls. The NDP won't win here. This is a Conservative-Liberal battle.
15 08 16 Swellow
I can not see the Tories losing this seat. With redistribution this is a seat they'll probably only lose if they go under 100 seats.
15 08 07 The Turbinator
Solid hold. The MP is very strong and is much more popular then the previous 3 term former MP who isnt running again.
Parm Gill should maintain and/or increase his vote margin.
Anyone who thinks the NDP will win this is on something that shouldnt be legalized. The other Ruby/local liberals are a shell of their former glory back in the 2000s. The Conservative riding association is one of the top 20 in the country.
15 08 05 Jan
Conservative MP Parm Gill is unpopular. I remember when he ran for the Conservatives in York West - the guy is polarizing and uninspiring. Watch for the NDP to take this riding thanks to the candidacy of Martin Singh.
15 08 04 R.O.
Parm Gill is one of the better known conservative mp's in this area , I'm not sure the conservatives can hold all of Brampton like last election but an mp like Parm Gill should be able to get re-elected in this area. The riding has also be redistributed so much different riding than he won in 2011. The liberal mp he beat is also not back and new liberal doesn't seem as high profile.
15 07 31 Woodworth
Safest Tory seat in GTA West. If Parm Gill does not win the Conservatives are swept out of Peel. The Liberals are weak so he should hold. Gill is also a good Constituency MP and has a large team behind him.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Parm Gill is a strong incumbent and will be working hard. He even had a decent base of support before being MP. Won't be easy, but he should win.
15 05 27 Canadian Election Atlas
I'm not sure what makes this riding particularly Conservative compared to the rest of Brampton. Sure, the Tories won big here last time, but wasn't that to kick Ruby Dhalla out? In 2008, this seat was much closer. PollMaps.ca calculated that the Tories won it by just 2.3%. Surely the Liberals are doing better in the polls than in 2008?
The Peel Region acts rather monolithically (with some exceptions), so if surrounding seats go Liberal, this one will too.
15 04 12 A.S.
Never mind just the Liberals; the *NDP* should be deemed a factor here on at least two counts: (a) Gurpreet Dhillon (now a municipal councillor) having successfully carried 'Jagmeet Singh NDPism' into the Springdale polls provincially last year (which got him a hitherto-unforeseen 32% and second place riding-wide), and (b) their present federal candidate here being former leadership contender *Martin* Singh. As far as Parm Gill goes, as smooth an 'ethno-Con' archetype as he may be, he surely benefited from Ruby Dhalla having accrued something of what we might now call an 'Indo-Canadian Eve Adams' stigma--otherwise, surely, he would have had longer provincial coattails last year (Pam Hundal *third*?!? Who'd have thought). Thus, what might save him now has less to do with this being a 'stronghold' (whether personal or party-wise) than with the same-ol' split-opposition circumstance--Parm Gill going ballot-box Bal Gosal on us, perhaps...
15 03 30 JC
This is not a lock at all for Parm Gill, the Lawyers have changed their Ruby's in this election. 3,700 people showed up for the Liberal Nomination in this riding alone. It was the largest turnout for any Ontario nomination vote to date, there is no way in hades that Parm Gill wins this riding at all.
15 03 29 Jason
Parm Gill won by a large margin last election, but with current polling trends I'd say he is vulnerable here. Peel Region is leans more towards Liberals, though the federal Tories have done well in 2011.
I would suspecting Stephen Harper and Jason Kenney take multiple trips to this riding before election day. Justin Trudeau too.
15 03 28 Jason Z
Parm Gill is a popular MP in the riding - and constantly pulls in great numbers, even when he lost in 2008 he had a strong result. With redistribution Brampton North becomes even more safe than Brampton-Springdale was.

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