Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Don Valley North

Prediction Changed
2015-09-11 10:21:31

Constituency Profile


Brown, Caroline

Daniel, Joe

Sadikali, Akil

Tan, Geng

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1420.36%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Don Valley East
   (99/202 polls, 52.60% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joe Daniel

   (101/202 polls, 47.40% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Chungsen Leung


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15 10 16 Dr. Bear
I agree 100% with Marco Ricci's assessment. I thought it highly suspicious that there would be all these conservative predictions, mostly from one-time posters. If what they say is true, then good work to Joe Daniel and his team, stemming the red tide in an area where the liberals traditionally do well. However, I believe this will not come to pass and the liberals will gain this seat as expected.
15 10 15 Marco Ricci
The long list of Conservative predictions below is surprising because all 3 Don Valley ridings are projected to go Liberal overwhelmingly by all the seat projection sites.
So either the polls are way off, or we have a number of Conservative operatives posting below. I suspect the latter.
15 10 03 OgtheDim
We will know by the Wednesday before the election but this riding right now looks like a Liberal win. NDP is dropping in the GTA while the Tories have peaked. The vote splits that got Tories into 416 seats are not happening this time around.
15 09 26 ProBirch
I recently got a Conservative door knocker come to my door - the first from any party. They seem to have large broadsheet pieces (similar to newspapers), so it looks like they are well funded. My street solely has Conservative signs (I'm still undecided but leaning towards voting for the Conservatives). Polling puts this area as a neck and neck race between the Conservatives and Liberals. I do not think this should be called for the Liberals.
15 09 25 Woodworth
Update: Tory signs dominate the north and west parts of the riding. It looks like Daniel will pull it off. Recent Forum and Mainstreet polls for Toronto have put LPC and CPC neck and neck in North York. Considering North York includes CPC black holes of Humber-Black Creek and York South-Weston, it looks like this riding is leaning Tory.
15 09 14 Malahat
Heard from good authority that the Conservatives are sinking their Toronto resources into this riding as well as York Centre and Eg-Law. The Tory candidate has been pounding the pavement in this riding and has gotten a lot of support of the higher ups from the looks of it. Look for a surprise on election night.
15 09 12 Adeline96
I went to High School here and lived in this district until August 2013. Joe Daniel was an accidental Tory gain in 2011 but he quickly reached out to the neighbourhoods by constantly holding Town halls and knocking on doors to speak with the people who live here (my parents note that it was the first time they had a local MP knock on their door). He also came to my school and spoke a few times and was generally well received. I think that local constituency touch will save his skin in this riding, but it really depends on who gets to the new voters merged in from Willowdale first. Polling is once again putting the Conservatives ahead in Ontario by a decent margin and this riding should be Too Close to Call for the time being.
15 09 10 Nick M.
Conservatives are going to lose 10% of the popular vote at the least. The CPC Just not ready is meant for riding like this, and 905 ridings. It is Ontario where the CPC needs to hold onto seats, and most of those seat are against the Liberals in 905 and GTA. (I know, stating the obvious)
As effective as the just not ready campaign is, it won't be enough to discourage the Sentiment that Harper is a tired old government. Only thing I feel could work for the CPC is Wynne doing silly public stunts.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
There weren't any issues with the Liberal nomination that would effect the general public. They were mainly inter-party disagreements from what I can tell.
As to this riding, it's actually projected to go Liberal by a pretty clear margin right now (90% chance of a Liberal win based on the new Labour Day numbers:)
However, even though the projections show the Liberals with a clear lead, since it is a new riding with new candidates, it is safe to keep it as TCTC just in case the Liberal projection here is off.
15 09 06 OgtheDim
The real campaign started a tad earlier then I expected. Was thinking people would not be listening until after Labour Day.
Then the Syrian refugee issue blew up in the CPC's faces. People did hear that. No real advantage nationally to either the Liberals or the NDP beyond a few point drops that are unlikely to come back to the CPC. But there will be ridings where money and effort will be placed by locals to ensure the CPC and its immigration and refugee approach does not win. This is one of those ridings.
Still a way to go yet but I would say right now its advantage Liberals in this riding.
15 09 06 King Brendan
There are loads of local factors going on in my riding which point to a Conservative win. Mostly, which many other posters agree with is the weakness of the candidates. If the others don't go knocking on doors it will hurt the chances of toppling Joe Daniel. The equal support of the NDP and Liberals is also not desirable for an opposition win here.
15 08 31 DireWolf
The Liberal candidate was in a controversy over their nomination, and the Tory will not do any media interviews. Although these are big issues the constituency should be made aware of, 90% of people would not have heard of either controversy come voting time. I think this riding will go with the general trend in the GTA, and I think whichever party wins government will win this seat.
15 08 28 JimmyinOntario
I am updating my prediction. I agree with Jason's statement that both Geng Tan and Joe Daniel are weak candidates. I was pleased that that the NDP communicated with me at my door, but it appears they are also running a weak campaign. I have not seen a single NDP sign or even the campaign office. Interesting predicament with all 3 candidates and it appears DVN will have a disappointing MP regardless. 3 way toss up between the parties right now.
15 08 25 High Park Girl
Joe Daniel, running in the re-created Toronto riding of Don Valley North, isn't doing media interviews until the final ballots are counted on Oct. 19 according to a report in the Toronto Metro newspaper (Monday, August24, 2015).
15 08 27 Jason
Both Joe Daniel and Geng Tan are weak candidates. They have impressive resumes outside of politics, but Daniel has not made a splash in parliament and I highly doubt Tan would either.
It is difficult to even consider Joe Daniel an incumbent in this riding as the majority of this riding split from Willowdale rather than Don Valley East where Daniel was 'accidentally' elected back in 2011.
There was some controversy with Geng Tan's nomination last year, but I doubt the average voter noticed.
This part of Toronto is big-L Liberal by default. Trudeau's Ontario numbers are okay enough for Geng Tan to squeeze through this riding - even with an NDP surge.
15 08 18 Monkey Cheese
And we should trust a NDP partisan like you, 'Tes'? This site is full of partisans trying to convince other partisans that their side will win. Some are simply more subtle about it. You cannot deny that the Liberals have been improving in the polls since the first debate, generally at the expense of both the Conservatives and NDP. Also, take a look at the 2011 results. It is the Liberals who were in second place. It would only take a marginal shift of about 1500 votes for the Liberals to win this seat the next time around whereas the NDP would have to double their result to win. Given the new dynamic of the current polls, you can therefore see the stats being more in the Liberals' favor, not the NDP. This is a Lib-Con battle. The NDP will be in third once again here. This one should probably be TCTC right until the election.
15 08 17 OgtheDim
Still too early to call but there is an interesting little tidbit buried in the last national Leger poll indicating 1/4 of all people planning to vote CPC either think there is a need for a change in government or are unsure when asked the question. In a riding this close, that 7% being in play or in danger of not voting can be the difference between coming in 3rd and coming up the middle.
I remain convinced that this riding will mirror national sentiment.
15 08 16 Swellow
This is a seat where a strong NDP only hurts the Liberals, and secures a Tory win. A weak Liberal candidate only makes it more likely the Tory will squeak through.
15 08 15 Tes
Liberal partisan 'Follow The Numbers' believes this will be a Liberal seat, but I beg to differ. As someone who actually works and formerly lived in this riding (rather than being from Prince Edward County or Ottawa like some of the previous posters), The Anti-Harper voters have decided to throw their support fully behind the NDP this election, and I can tell you that this seat has the undertow to go orange. While 'Follow The Numbers' likes to cite 308 as a source for a lot of their predictions, 308's creator himself said not to look too closely at the seat-by-seat riding breakdowns he puts out but rather the general trend, and the general trend here is a strong NDP in Toronto. This seat is an NDP-Tory race. The Liberals are out of the question here without Rana Sarkar as their candidate. Dr. Geng will not win the seat after the mess of the nomination meeting he had, and the fact his nomination website was completely Mandarin outside of the home page also turned off many people. Some posters also cited the Chinese community being behind Geng Tan, and that is false. Many do not realize the divide between the Hong Kong Chinese (of which I am, and which make up the majority of the Chinese population in this riding) and mainland Chinese (of which Geng Tan is from). Many Hong Kong Chinese are weary of Dr. Geng's closeness to Michael Chan, who has been a controversial figure in the riding I currently live in. I have probably seen more Chinese supporters door knocking with Dr. Daniel and Mr. Sadikali posted on social media than Dr.Geng. Akil Sadikali has run here in the past and has been working hard, and he will take a large percentage of the vote. Joe Daniel will finish second but it won't be close, while Geng Tan will finish a weak 3rd as a result of the Anti-Harper vote coalescing around the NDP.
15 08 09 Follow The Numbers
The polls are showing this as a Liberal pickup. They have been doing better since the last election and I have to think that counts for something here. Joe Daniel hasn't been a particularly strong MP. The Liberals narrowly lost this one last time and with improved polling numbers this time, they should be able to win here. Liberal gain.
15 07 31 Woodworth
The Tories only have four seats they have a shot in in the 416, and this is one of them (alongside Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre, and Etobicoke Lakeshore). The Liberal candidate won by stacking his nomination with people of his ethnic background (common among many candidates across party lines in the GTA). It will be interesting to see if the Liberal still has a chance after isolating his Riding Association.
15 07 26 MPS
Harper has visited my riding twice since January. This was one of the seats which delivered him his majority in 2011, so I'm not at all surprised he is targeting to keep Joe Daniel in parliament.
15 07 19 JimmyinOntario
I used to live in Willowdale, but after the riding boundary changes I now fall into this riding. I think this will be a battleground between the Conservatives and Liberals. It's a bit early to call it for the Liberals I think, especially with recent polls putting them behind the Conservatives in Ontario. On the other hand, the only candidate who has knocked on my door so far is the NDP's, although I have received info pieces from the Conservatives and NDP. I haven't heard anything from the Liberals yet. This riding will be a bellwether riding.
15 07 16 Naythan
I have to disagree with the current declaration of this seat going Liberal. This is one of the three North York seats (alongside Willowdale and Don Valley West) which can swing either Lib or Con. Recent riding association numbers came out and the DVN Con association had much more money than the Lib association. Although not a clear indicator of who will win, more money is always helpful. The Con inroads with the Chinese community may be beneficial here, but as the Scarborough Agincourt by-election proved, the Cons can't take the Chinese vote for granted. Too close to call.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
The CPC M.P. here has been invisible on Parliament Hill, but quite active in the constituency. This riding would normally lean LPC but the LPC candidate had a controversial nomination battle and will be working to mend bridges. Either way, it's hard to see either Tan or Daniel making a huge impact in the 42nd Parliament, even despite their A-list credentials (Daniel is a scientist and former University professor while Tan is a Ph.D Chemist).
15 07 01 HFoster
This is a riding which will be between the Liberals and CPC. If the NDP run strong here, they will allow Conservative MP Daniel to win up the middle. This is another Toronto riding which has faced some Liberal infighting and a controversial nomination. This may turn many Liberals to the NDP or the Conservatives to keep out Geng Tan. At the moment, strong NDP polling favours a CPC victory here.
15 06 09 Molly T.
I am calling a CPC win here only because the NDP has risen and the Liberals have fallen. Joe Daniel won in 2011 because of a split on the left, and if the NDP continue to be strong, Joe Daniel will be a two term MP.
15 06 09 CH
Suburban Toronto (though not the Toronto suburbs) are going to go Liberal en masse. This riding only notionally voted Conservative last time because the Conservatives won a majority. This election will be a 3-way race in Ontario, and thus the Liberals will win this part of their old territory back.
15 05 31 A.S.
Actually, Jason Z, it's the *north* half of the former DVE that's traditionally been the more 'Liberal friendly' (the old Elinor/David Caplan fiefdom, after all), though the rightward/Fordward ethnoburban shift has flattened the ratio somewhat (but the old pattern does endure municipally: left-Lib Shelley Carroll representing the north, Denzil M-W representing the south)--what really makes this more favourable to Joe Daniel than the new-model DVE is the lack of Flemingdon-style CPC black holes. And of course, that's only 'more favourable' by 416 standards--but, win or lose, a trade-up is a trade-up (however marginal), and Daniel did the sensible thing if he had/has any hope of saving his 'accidental gain' skin. And maybe, like last time, Grit bumbling will finish the job for him.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
Joe who? I can't think of anything this backbencher has done to warrant him getting re-elected. If you go by the numbers, polling aggregate threehundredeight has the Liberals at 45.5% compared to 32% for the Conservatives. This is fitting seeing how the Liberals are much stronger in Ontario now than they were in 2011. I'm calling a Liberal pickup based on the numbers alone.
15 04 09 Jeanne Marie
Predicting a cpc win - at the moment. A lot can change in the next few months but Harper will aim to keep his Toronto seats and this is one of the party's best shots.
15 04 06 Kate
Looking like this is one of the safer CPC seats in Toronto (though that isn't saying much). Leaning CPC although campaign can change it in my opinion.
15 03 30 OgtheDim
Too far away to call yet. The bit of Willowdale halved off to make this riding is Red Tory or Blue Liberal. Baring a serious gaffe, this race will not be won or lost by the local candidates. To be blunt, nobody really knows who these people are.
This riding is all about GOTV and who's winning nationally. If there still is a Lib North York machine, this is the test.
15 03 28 monkey
While more favourable for Joe Daniel, the Tories still would have only barely won this in 2011 which was a highwater mark for them and low water mark for the Liberals so even if the Tories win in 2015, they will probably lose this. In fact I think the Tories' chances of winning a majority nationally are better than holding this riding.
15 03 26 Jason Z
Geng Tan was a divisive choice for the Liberals here, beating the brass' favoured candidate and isolating a lot of the base with many controversies, like a nomination website which was nearly all in Chinese. Joe Daniel is active in the Chinese community in the riding (which makes up a large portion of DVN), and was also active at a lot of events held by Willowdale MP CS Leung (Don Valley North will be made of half of Willowdale and half of Joe Daniel's previous riding Don Valley East). Daniel loses the more Liberal friendly south half of the riding and gains a more Conservative part of Willowdale. Will be close but the way things are going right now I think Joe Daniel will win.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
This is where the Conservatives should focus all their campaigning in East York. It will be razor thin either way, but I predict a CPC hold.
15 03 24 MH
Although there has been a Don Valley North before, this constituency is the result of redistribution. Given the substantial shift of voters away from the Conservatives in the larger cities, Don Valley North will end up in the Liberal column. But there's half a year to go, and the picture may change.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
An 'accidental' win for the CPC in 2011, as I think the Conservatives were more focused on winning Don Valley West and elsewhere in Toronto proper. The general shift back toward in Liberals in the large cities will see this one flip back to the Liberals.
I also agree with Craig Hubley that it's most unfortunate that, as a scientist, Mr. Daniel was not an outspoken champion of the sciences. Regardless of who is in power, we need the scientific community to speak up loudly in order to ensure good policy trumps special interest.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Joe Daniel, being a published scientist, should have made far more of a mark on Parliament than he has. However, he has done literally nothing of note, is a backbencher who stays silent while science itself is under attack. Despite being an expert in fibre optic technology, for instance, he has literally nothing to say about Canada getting a tariffed dark fibre backbone like other developed countries, to free it of its telecom overlords. Really, who needs people like this in the House, who can't speak even to their own expertise, or even elaborate why Canada is somehow different (and must remain more primitive) than every other G7 country.
Geng Tam, his Liberal opponent, is a chemist, and quite likely to rip into Daniel on his failure to stand up against the anti-science Harper regime.
It may become apparent that Daniel, who was a 'manager in engineering' at IBM for 14 years, only got his name on papers because he signed cheques.
Which would open up a whole different can of worms.
In any case, I'm calling this Liberal for Daniel's lack of achievement and a general shift of Toronto area votes from Conservative to Liberal.

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