Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:40:41

Constituency Profile


MacCallum, Bill

Marquis, David

Perry, Mike

Schmale, Jamie

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
   (253/253 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Barry Devolin


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15 08 30 A.S.
For all the easy 'only a disunited right can elect the left' conclusions to be had in HKLB, remember how Dennis Drainville set a hinterland-left-populist benchmark here in the 1990 Rae landslide--but for Mike Perry to 'do a Drainville' is still a longshot, even if being an open seat clears at least a *little* Kawartha brush away.
15 07 20 kawarthapundit
If the winds of change smell like anything, you might be getting a whiff of Orange Crush here in HKLB. I'm not saying that the NDP will win this, yet, but the swing to the NDP here will be higher than the national average. By far, Mr. Perry of the NDP has been the most active and positive campaigner this largely rural riding. Mr. Schmale has also largely been everywhere Mr. Perry has gone, although it seems that Mr. Perry garners a larger following, and seems to be in more places. And without lawn signs, the button war seems to be in Perry's corner for certain. It'll be interesting to see the local debates to see the full spectrum from the candidates.
15 06 27 Luke G
I want to say this will change hands, but i doubt it, but this the most conservative riding in Canada, will undergo a shift like never before... it might even be a real contest for the first time since the right was divided. The tory candidate is more of a backroom/organizer than real candidate material, whereas the NDP candidate is a very strong, charismatic, personable social activist, that could very well strike a chord with Lindsay's large disenfranchised population. If the Liberals nominate a strong candidate then perhaps there will be too much division of the anti-harper vote... however i don't think that will happen.
I think it would take an NDP majority before this riding would tip over, but it's not out of the question.
15 05 28 R.O.
Even without current mp Barry Devolin running its still a fairly tory friendly area . Jamie Schmale should be able to hold this mostly rural small town riding although the opposition parties might improve their numbers .
15 04 21 Rural Roots
While Schmale should win handily, there is a certain level of apathy in the riding, which may result in a lot of voters staying home. Don't be surprised if he garners less than 50% of the vote, whereas Devolin topped 60% in 2011
15 03 27 Dr Bear
I doubt this will even be much of a race. You need to go back to the days of two right-wing parties splitting the vote before it goes anything but blue.
15 03 25 kawarthapundit
This is conservative country here. Schmale is popular (former local radio personality, and current executive assistant to the MP), and probably more so than his retiring counterpart Devolin. But while the Conservatives likely will win, the NDP and Greens are fielding their strongest candidates in many elections. Mike Perry is well respected within the local health and business community as he is the executive director to the local Family Health Team. And Mr. MacCallum is well connected in the community as a high-school teacher. The Liberals have yet to select their candidate, but either a former Brock Twp Councillor, or former Economic Development Director for Kawartha Lakes will be their candidate. The battle will be for second. I predict the NDP.
15 03 24 Philly D.
A core Conservative seat that they would have held from 1993-2004 were it not for vote splits (and came close nonetheless.)

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