Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Devolin, Barry

Edwards, Lyn

Lauten, Susanne

Redman, Laura

Barry Devolin

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • haliburton-victoria-brock (222/222 Polls)
  • parry-sound-muskoka (3/197 Polls)
  • peterborough (4/240 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 07 Tony Ducey
    CPC hold, maybe just maybe Devolin could be the next speaker of the house of Commons now that Milliken is retired.
    11 04 06 Local Student
    2nd week in, and the sign war has begun...and if the beginnings of this are any prediction....I've only seen signs for the Liberals & Conservatives. As for signs actually on lawns (not public property) I've only seen conservative signs. I'd say, there really is no question about it, Devolin will win, especially considering since he served in the last parliament as Deputy-Speaker, and with Milliken gone, he stands a good chance as being elected Speaker of the House.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    As a solidly rural riding and with strong opposition to the gun registry, the Tories should win in the landslide. John Tory only lost here as this is a Blue Tory not Red Tory so many voted Liberal to get rid of him as leader as his loss here would mean his departure.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    Devolin wins easily here. With 56% and a 35-point margin last time, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which he wouldn't. Besides, if the Tories form government after the election, he stands an excellent chance of becoming the next Speaker.
    09 09 07 A.S.
    The provincial counterpart wouldn't have been much higher on the excitement gauge, had Laurie Scott stayed put rather than made way for John Tory. Anyway, for Devolin to soar to 56% and win every single poll speaks for itself--at this point, ?excitement? might as well mean the tussle for second.
    09 09 04 University Student
    OK, this is obvious. Conservative win. Devolin will win even a majority of the votes.
    Now, if only this riding was as an exciting as its provincial counterpart....which shockingly went to provincial Liberals. Thats a discussion worth having, but this is the federal riding...
    So, expect a lackluster campaign here with 4 rather bland candidates. Devolin Win.
    09 08 29 R.O.
    Was an interesting by-election here at the provincial level but i don't expect the same federally as John Tory's provincial run was nothing short of a disaster. he just out of nowhere announced he was running here and that popular local conservative mpp Laurie Scott would be stepping down and then after that he ran a dull and basically issue-less campaign which allowed for the liberal candidate Rick Johnson to tear him apart just over the fact he was even running here and not from the riding to begin with and i do not think the end result was a true reflection of the ridings usual political views. on the federal side conservative mp Barry Devolin has been a well liked local mp since first being elected in 2004 and re-elected in recent elections. He has also brought some federal funding to projects in the riding like the trent severn waterway. so i would expect him to hold this riding in the next election.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Devolin is by no means an animated speaker. That doesn't matter a bit in HKLB. Voter turnout went down in '08, but his total increased, to where he finished with a 19,000 vote lead. Look for him to again be over the 50% mark.

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