Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Hamilton Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:46:20

Constituency Profile


Anastasiou, Maria

Baldasaro, Michael James

Christopherson, David

Rozenszajn, Yonatan

Schmid-Jones, Ute

Tennier, Anne

Young, Rob

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 9252.69%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Hamilton Centre
   (182/207 polls, 90.25% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

David Christopherson

   Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
   (25/207 polls, 9.75% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Wayne Marston


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15 09 14 jeff316
Hamilton Centre is on track for a Liberal flip but the fruit probably ain't ripe just yet. Given Hamilton's red-hot housing market and increasing gentrification - Queen Westers growing tired of Queen West so promptly moving to Hamilton to recreate Queen West - and Trudeau's left-with-benefits positions are really not a match for Christopherson's fire-brand, working-class, rile-'em-up-Wayne, old-timey NDPness. When the Liberals win their next majority, Hamilton Centre will go with them.
15 08 16 Dr. Bear
No one in their right mind would call this riding for the Liberals, however in our immediate neighborhood (near the General hospital), Anne Tennier signs sprouted well before anything for David Christopherson showed up. Red still outnumbers orange on private property 2:1. This is not evidence indicating sudden and surprising Liberal support in Hamilton Centre, but rather an illustration on how lawn signs can be a poor indicator as to how much support is present in a riding. Never the less, this does indicate that the Liberal ground team is somewhat organized here.
15 07 11 A.S.
It'd be interesting if a seat where the Greens missed the deadline to field a candidate in 2011 wound up with the Greens in 2nd place in 2015--though that'd require a circumstance where they're polling nationally around 10% or beyond, or if Peter Ormond were running here rather than in Ham-W-A-D. (Just an aside, as the first-place-finisher's a foregone conclusion.)
15 03 28 monkey
Solid NDP riding so while the Liberals may have a shot at the other two Hamilton ridings, this will stay NDP.
15 03 26 ML
One of the safest NDP seats in the country.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
If the NDP are in danger in Hamilton Center, then they're returning to under 20-seat territory. Safest seat for them in the Golden Horseshoe (yes, even safer than Toronto-Danforth).
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
NDP safe seat. One of very few in the country. Hamilton is still union.

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