Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

Prediction Changed
2015-07-07 21:17:11

Constituency Profile


Bratina, Bob

Bubanko, Diane

Davis, Erin

Fields, Wendell

Mann, Bob

Marston, Wayne

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 10752.40%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
   (222/222 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Wayne Marston


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15 08 23 A.S.
At least going by his pre-mayoral record. Bratina's should have been a little like Hamilton's Adam Vaughan, i.e. an urban-Ontarian answer to the Liberal/LD 'Community Politics' tradition in the UK--and insofar as that goes, the demographic mix of Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas might in fact have been more compatible (memo to jeff316: the Con-diehard element was lost through redistribution, that's why David Sweet's running in a different riding this time). In HESC he's misplaced; as ex-mayors go, the seat better befits a so-called slimy wardheeler like Larry DiIanni, and *he* bombed here in 2008. Under normal circumstances, ye olde union guy Marston ought to be vulnerable--after all, the Cons' Brad Clark pushed HESC back into marginality in 2011--but the best Bratina can hope for is to restore the old Liberal-as-prime-competitor status quo.
15 08 12 jeff316
Poor Bratina! Talk about riding shopping gone awry. Bratina is a study in contrasts from current mayor and former federal Hamilton East-Stoney Creek candidate Fred Eisenberg. Unlike Eisenberg, who is known to even his biggest detractors as a principled, big picture, results-first-politics-second kind of guy, Bratina's always been a bit of a gadfly in Hamilton politics - politically flaky, will use anything to his advantage, always a little too into himself to see the forest from the trees. That has manifested itself here. Bratina signalled almost two years ago that he wanted to run federally against Christopherson, hoping this would prompt Christopherson to retire, but as the tide has turned against the Liberals in the last year, he backed out of taking on a political icon. The next most palatable riding? Hamilton Mountain, with no NDP incumbent is the next choice - but who foils that for Bratina? Scott Duvall, former council colleague who has that riding sewn up. ADFW? Too conservative, too many NDP diehards to solidify anti-Conservative vote. That leaves Hamilton East Stoney Creek, an areas that elects Liberals of purpose and integrity - like Agostino, Copps - but not men of ambition like Bratina. Sure, he'll make it a bit more interesting than normal, but you almost have to feel sorry for the guy.
15 07 06 Expat
This is probably the easiest riding in the country to predict that is currently listed as TCTC.
Given past results and present polling that is higher than last election, the incumbent MP is looking completely safe.
15 04 26 Mr. Dave
The NDP won this seat in the provincial election by a 7500-vote margin last June.
With present NDP support now above what it was going into the 2011 federal election, I can't see how the Liberals would be able to overcome such a huge vote difference.
NDP hold!
15 04 22 Rational Optimist
I don't think that Bratina's candidacy will change the dynamics here much. His mayoral victory in 2010 was not resounding, and his support in the east end was not overwhelming (one of his opposites had a plurality in Stoney Creek). There were several controversies near the end of his mayoral term which might dilute his star power and, though he is recognizable as a long-time radio host, he represented a ward as councillor that does not comprise part of this riding.
I disagree with the assertion that the Tories will be the main challenger to the NDP, as I think that was an aberration and partly due to a well-known Tory candidate in Brad Clark. I think it will be an NDP win over the Liberals, and that this riding can be considered pretty safe for them.
15 03 28 monkey
The NDP should hold the Hamilton part while the Stoney Creek part could be interesting. If Stoney Creek (which is more suburban thus bellwether) goes Tory, then the NDP should hold the riding as the Tories will get clobbered in the Hamilton portion. By contrast if the Liberals win the Stoney Creek portion, then they have a decent shot at picking this up as they won't get clobbered in the Hamilton portion like the Tories will. The Tories cannot win this, but they will play spoiler role as every vote they will win will come at the expense of the Liberals.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
In response to CU Political Scientist: I believe the error in your analysis is the comparison with 2011. Polling numbers are suggesting an election dynamic in Ontario akin to 2004 as opposed to 2011. That would be a substantially weakened NDP in Ontario. When comparing to the provincial election, the NDP were on a populist upswing in the rust belt of SW Ontario. The federal NDP don't seem to be exhibiting that. I would also caution against dismissing the effect of a star candidate for the Liberals.
15 03 26 ML
I agree with Dr. Bear that this is the least safe of the three NDP seats in the Hamilton area, but I am still not comfortable predicting it as a Liberal shoe-in. The Liberals will have to overcome a massive vote deficit following their poor performance in 2011. The NDP has solidified support in East Hamilton and Stoney Creek at both the provincial and federal level in spite of having relatively low profile NDP incumbents. At least at the moment this riding seems like an open race.
15 03 22 CU Political Scientist
I have to disagree with anyone saying that a stronger Liberal candidate will change the dynamics in this race. Last election it was a contest between the NDP and the Conservatives, with the liberals coming a distant third.
If the liberals increase by taking votes from the NDP, it would maybe put the CPC closer to victory but given that the CPC were up in Ontario in 2011 I think it would be more likely for the liberals to win disaffected CPC voters, which would just put the NDP further ahead.
In last years provincial election, the NDP got 47% of the vote in this riding and the Liberals (who overall had a very good election) only got 29%.
Yes, I think the liberals will probably do better than the mid-teens result they got in 2011, but I wouldn't expect more than the provincial election.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
I have to completely disagree with the NDP call for this riding. NDP's support has dropped to pre-orange wave levels in Ontario. At those levels, the NDP are at risk in two of the three Hamilton ridings they hold. With Marston as the standard bearer, this is the weakest-link in the NDP-Hamilton trifecta. It is true that some of the more Conservative-leaning parts of the Stoney Creek end were cut off and some working class areas of Hamilton East were added, which should, on paper, help the NDP. Thing is, the Liberals have former Hamilton mayor Bob Bratina as their candidate. It is true that he was not liked in all circles, especially amongst the 'progressive' crowd (think Westdale), but he isn't running in the west end. Rather he's running in the working class east, where his fame as 'the voice of the Tigercats' will win him points from football crowd. This crowd is significant in the NDP stronghold of Hamilton East. No, I think this race will be far more interesting than what is suggested on this (and other) forums.
15 03 21 Jason
This is riding is definitely not an NDP lock. At the moment it should be considered a toss up.
Former Hamilton mayor Bob Bratina is running for the Liberals and I am sure the party HQ will target this specific riding. The Liberals held this riding as recent as 2004 under Paul Martin.
NDP numbers in Ontario have declined tremendously over the last year. Mulcair and the NDP HQ seems focused on Toronto and Northern Ontario at the moment. However, the NDP is traditionally strong in Hamilton and I am sure the party will put up a good fight to hold this seat.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
This riding is getting more urban which should favour the NDP somewhat. The rural parts of the riding are more touristic as they blend into wine country, and accordingly ought to be worried about a high 'petrodollar' killing tourism. As the Liberal tide won't quite rise to threaten the NDP here, I'll call it a hold.

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