Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:36:08

Constituency Profile


Hansen, John

McCrimmon, Karen

Pamic, Walter

West, Andrew

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   (199/201 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Gordon O'Connor


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15 10 13 SC
A new Environics poll for Leadnow (the strategic voting people) gives McCrimmon a pretty stupendous lead, 50-39. That seems a bit on the high side to me, at least compared to past polling, though there's plenty of evidence from the wider national polling that the Liberals are starting to break away. I'll say Liberal, though perhaps not by quite that big a margin.
15 10 14 Marco Ricci
The Ottawa Citizen reported a new Environics poll for Kanata-Carleton today.
One always has to be cautious when interpreting these riding polls, but it's possible they could be an indication of Liberal momentum:
October 13, 2015
Liberal/McCrimmon (50)
Conservative/Pamic (39)
NDP/Hansen (8)
Green/West (3)
15 10 14 Jeff S
LPC rise in Ontario pushes this one red.
15 10 13 South Islander
Environics/Leadnow poll showing McCrimmon ahead 50/39 should be enough to to make the call here.
15 10 13 JohnnyB
Should have been a lock for the CPC, but national momentum for Liberal, and a slew of negative press for Pamic (Sun Article/disputed candidacy, sign removals, AshleyMadison Account) and the pendulum seems to be in McCrimmon's favour.
15 10 11 Adeline96
Update in my riding: It appears the NDP Candidate is branding himself as a fiscal conservative. Both his Twitter bio as well as his literature pieces (mailed to me, rather than brought by a canvasser) brand him as fiscally conservative. His use of those words are interesting and could help boost him in a conservative riding like this. I am still seeing a lot of NDP support (and a bit more Liberal support in Kanata North), while Kanata South still looks like a lock for the Tories. Not sure about the rural parts of the riding but using previous trends it looks like they will safely vote Conservative. Unless I see a big change in the next week, this will be my final prediction for my riding, and I think it will go Conservative.
15 10 09 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet Research/Postmedia - October 8, 2015
Walter Pamic (CPC) 45%
Karen McCrimmon (LPC) 43%
John Hansen (NDP) 8%
15 10 08 Jeff S
Two points separate the CPC and the LPC according to Mainstreet. TCTC.
15 09 27 R.O.
If conservative support had dropped here its clearly recovering as a new environics poll has the cpc 44 to lib 37 , ndp 13 . this is historically the more conservative friendly part of Ottawa and remains provincially tory as well. Being open after long time mp Gordon O'connor retired its likely this riding closer than before but feel this suburban riding will stay conservative.
15 09 25 Woodworth
Recent [edited] poll by LeadNow still gave Pamic a healthy lead. I agree with Adeline - this riding is staying blue in October.
15 09 20 Nick M.
Adeline96 has convinced me this will go Conservative. Times do change, although it was 15 years ago that this riding voted for Stockwell Day, it won't have changed enough. In 2000 the NDP vote collapsed again, as it did in 1993. This time due to the anyone but the Canadian Alliance. And this riding still went Canadian Alloance, with a PC party to boot.
The Conservatives may be in trouble here, they are in trouble throughout Ontario. But I think this a hold.
15 09 16 Marco Ricci
According to Randall Denley in The Ottawa Citizen today, Conservative internal polling shows them in trouble in several Ottawa ridings.
It says: 'The Tories are also close in Kanata-Carleton.'
So if this internal polling report is accurate, it does indeed show a close race here.
15 09 12 Swing Voter
Agree with the TCTC designation for this riding. I have it on good authority that the LPC is within a whisker of overtaking the CPC candidate... however, NDP support is up in this riding which is preventing the LPC from a break-away lead. In order for McCrimmon to secure this seat, she is going to need some NDP and GPC voters to vote strategically for LPC... otherwise, it'll stay in the CPC camp. This is one area where strategic voting by NDP and Green supporters would make all the difference. They stick with their present candidates and the riding stays blue.
15 09 12 Adeline96
My riding. A mix of suburban Ottawa as well as a lot of farmland and rural communities. I agree Karen McCrimmon is the better equipped of the 4 candidates, and is a likely Cabinet Minister if the Liberals form government. It is important to remember this was one of two ridings to go Canadian Alliance in 2000. Of course, a lot has changed and the riding has become more suburban. I still think it is a few elections away from becoming a true Liberal/Conservative swing seat like Ottawa West or Orleans. I can also say that in Kanata North the NDP candidate is coming on strong, with his signs outnumbering the Liberal and Conservative signs combined 2:1. This vote splitting will not help a progressive win Kanata. McCrimmon may win Kanata proper but Pamic will rack in massive margins in the outskirts and take it by a decent margin, maybe 8-15%.
15 09 08 Walter
308 says Liberals will win this riding (63%). With all due respect, a handyman does not stand a chance against an educated retired Canadian Armed Forces Lieutenant Colonel who was the first female navigator and the first woman to command a Canadian Forces air force squadron. This riding will be liberal
15 09 06 Tes
I was visiting friends in this riding over the weekend and I think it's time this riding is given a Conservative call. This is a safe seat for the party and Walter Pamic has signs everywhere. Blue signs outnumber Liberal and NDP signs across Kanata. Add the fact that the rural parts of this riding will be voting Conservative en masse means Pamic will be elected. Conservative hold.
15 08 29 Canadian Election Atlas
This is one of the safest Conservative seats in the province, and voters in Ottawa tend to not be very elastic, which means the sinking of Tory fortunes in the polls will not effect them as much here. In 2000, this area was one of the only two ridings in the province to vote Canadian Alliance. And provincially in 2011, the Tories won this seat easily in a similar scenario (popular incumbent retiring [lost nomination] and replaced with a divisive candidate).
15 08 29 A.S.
Being one of the flotsam of non-Justin Lib leadership contenders makes makes for a pretty motley and trivial 'star candidate', at least in and of itself--but McCrimmon's a sleeper all the same, given how she held the party base while Grit candidates were collapsing left and right in 2011 (and she actually *won or tied* in several polls, as opposed to 2008's total wipeout). I definitely wouldn't count her (or other Ottawa Grits: 1988 all over again?) out if the Cons are flirting with third place nationwide--besides, Kanata proper, with its enlightened 60s/70s 'planned suburb' roots, has always had a touch of lemme-outa-here relative to whatever safe-Tory riding it's been spliced into. Sooner or later, it'll have the upper hand (though it would have helped if West Carleton was distributed away as well)
15 08 19 plank
Although this riding is 'new,' the demographics carry a strong flavour of the previous Carleton-Mississippi Mills riding. Only in 1993 was the Liberal vote greater than Reform and the Progressive Conservative vote put together. No such vote splitting will take place in 2015, nor can I envision a massive shift away from the Conservatives. A small one, sure, but not big enough to cost them a seat. Assuming 50000 votes cast, my guess is that the Pamic will win 23000 of them.
15 08 16 Swellow
Despite a really divisive Tory candidate, I cannot see it going Liberal, especially with the Liberals down again. Karen deserves to win (full disclosure: I know her very well), but I cannot see her taking this seat, not this round anyways.
15 08 04 Full Name
Asked about Ottawa election sign by-laws, which delay the placing of lawn signs, the Liberal, NDP and Green candidates all offered their opinions and agreement to comply. The Consevative didn't bother to respond.
Ref: http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/election-signs-cant-take-root-in-ottawa-until-aug-20
Even with redistribution, if O'Connor had stayed on, he probably would have taken the riding, but Pamic is an unknown up against McCrimmon who did well the last time, despite the strong Con tendencies of the rural part of the old riding. With no incumbent, redistribution and now the apparently absent Pamic, this riding is McCrimmon's to win.
15 07 21 Carleton Student
TCTC. The Liberals may be down, but at the same time the CPC picked a wrong candidate a couple weeks ago. Had Matejicka won the nomination, this would have been a CPC seat.
15 07 16 Dr Bear
Polling is still showing a neck and neck race between the CPC and the Liberals. This despite the CPC's continuous attack on Trudeau and an NDP surge across much of the country (the NDP surge doesn't seem to be affecting Ottawa much). If an election was today this would be one to watch.
15 05 24 Canadian Election Atlas
LOL, the Liberals are not going to win this district. Doesn't matter who the Liberals run here, they would need a huge lead in the polls to have this seat even be in contention. The Liberals will make inroads into Kanata, but they won't be able to break into the rest of the riding, which is one of the safest Tory seats in the province.
15 04 09 Jeanne Marie
Karen McCrimmon ran previously in 2011 and did okay despite a complete Liberal collapse across Canada. Profile is raised now with her previous leadership run, and with no CPC incumbent (or even candidate, at this moment) she has a head start.
15 03 29 ottawa99
I think this will be the riding in Ottawa to watch this time around. It has lost many of its rural areas, and the Kanata region is becoming increasingly suburban and diverse as more and more subdivisions pop up. Additionally, McCrimmon is a very strong candidate who actually managed to increase the Liberal vote in the 2011 disaster. Nonetheless, the redistributed 2011 results give the Tories a 25 per cent margin of victory here. It will be much closer this time, but due to the massive amount of ground the Liberals would need to gain to pick this up I give the advantage to the Tories at this point.
15 03 28 monkey
Its true the Liberals have a strong candidate this time and Gordon O'Connor isn't running, but lets remember Kanata is fairly conservative and even if the Liberals win there, the Tories tend to rack up big margins in the rural portions. This riding would have gone Canadian Alliance in 2000 and likewise the provincial PCs even during bad years have always won here so while it might be closer than normal, I just cannot see the Liberals pulling this off even if they win nationally.
15 03 26 JC
Craig, Gordon O'Connor is not running in this election, if he had it would be much closer, right now advantage to McCrimmon based on Name Recognition alone.
15 03 25 Craig Hubley
Agreeing that Gordon O'Connor, a powerful minister, really cannot escape blame for the Harper track record, and in the Ottawa region, that's been awful. The high petrodollar and lack of modern (rail, fibre optic, power grid) infrastructure investment has wracked the high tech economy. Failures of securities oversight have led to capital flight from developed nation industries into dirty polluting extraction that the world is now fleeing from - even boycotting. Business thinkers are more inclined to think like Mark Carney or Elon Musk around Ottawa, than like Ezra Levant or Joe Oliver.
While O'Connor would in normal times be kept around to rebuild the Conservatives into the Progressive Conservatives again, a popular Liberal leader and a star candidate could well be sufficient to unseat O'Connor.
Not calling this yet.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
The Liberals have a rather strong candidate who is probably going to be in cabinet if they win government and on the Conservative side it's a bunch of no-names. I feel good about McCrimmon winning this.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Normally I could call this a Conservative hold and move on. However, with a lack of a Conservative incumbent, McCrimmon's star candidacy, rise of Liberal support (especially in Ottawa), some have been suggesting the Liberals may take this riding. Threehundredeight.com is calling this a CPC/Liberal tossup (40% to 39% respectively). While I still say this is the Conservative's riding to lose, we may have a much more interesting race than what previous elections would suggest.

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