Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Hogg, John

McCrimmon, Karen

O'Connor, Gordon

Peters, Erin

Hon. Gordon O'Connor

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • lanark-carleton (133/236 Polls)
  • nepean-carleton (37/207 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 25
    This will go Conservative again, but I do feel like it will be by a smaller margin than in the past. As Kanata and Stittsville densify, I could see this riding going Liberal, although we'll probably see Kanata-Stittsville separate and create their own riding after the 11' Census, and elect their own Liberal MP.
    11 04 19 Professor Schnauzer
    It is very depressing living in this riding during elections because it is a foregone conclusion. My prediction is Conservative -- but only because this riding would elect a donkey as long as they are the Conservative Candidate. Since my vote is essentially wasted, I usually eschew party politics and look at the Candidates themselves. I tend to go Green or NDP; but in this case, Karen McCrimmon has me interested in voting Liberal for the first time in years. Its a shame that the Liberal Party will end up wasting someone who could be a real ‘star’ candidate somewhere else -- this voting pattern is a cry out for modifications to ‘first past the post’.
    11 04 03 CdnVoter
    Sad to say but Gordon O'Connor will be re-elected handily despite being possibly one of the worst MPs in Parliament... you never see him in the riding and when you do, he's just carrying CPC water... NOT the voters concerns. However, the rural areas will push him over the top. Frankly, the Stittsville/Kanata areas of this riding are urban, accounting for 50% of the vote... and they tend to go Liberal. However, McCrimmon has been absolutely nowhere during this campaign. I don't understand candidates who are nominated early who believe they stand a chance of toppling a long-term incumbent in only 35 days... good grief... Karen might - MIGHT - have stood a chance had she spent the last year hitting the Stittsville & Kanata areas. She didn't and she'll lose.
    11 03 30 Sherloch
    O'Connor had almost 60% in the last election when there was reason to not re-elect him. It's been quiet the last couple of years and the other candidates don't have a reputation to sway voters away. Strong rural representation will stay aligned with Conservatives.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This was one of the two ridings that voted for the Canadian Alliance back in 2000 so if the Alliance could win this in 2000, you can be sure the Tories will easily take this today.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    The Alliance won this riding in 2000.
    Not to mention that, even by Eastern Ontario standards, the scale of O'Connor's victories have been impressive: absolute majority in 2004, 56% in 2006, and 58% last go-around, with a 35-point margin over the second-place Liberals. All three times, that's good for a Top 3 finish by the Conservatives in Ontario.
    Tory lock, obviously.
    11 03 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Surprised that O'Connor is going for another kick at the can! Good for him. Never the less, whether he ran or not this was going to stay CPC.
    10 09 28 Ottawa Insider
    My home riding. Gordon has it no matter who the liberals nominate. While he is getting up there in years, he shows no signs of slowing down. This riding is even more conservative than Nepean-Carleton because it has a larger rural population.
    09 12 27 A.S.
    Cabinet demotion or no, O'Connor wasn't vulnerable in '08. It wasn't that kind of election; it's not that kind of seat. And O'Connor's disgrace didn't compare to Maxime Bernier's, and *he* won even *bigger*. About the only discernable dent is that when it comes to ‘combined’ poll divisions, the Liberals actually managed to tie in one poll, compared to CPC sweeping 'em all in '06.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    O'Connor was vulnerable in '08, after his removal from the Defence portfolio. This didn't stop him from increasing his lead to 24,000...too much to overcome.

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