Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:27:14

Constituency Profile


Boucher-Chicago, Kelvin

Hampton, Howard

McKillop, Ember C.

Nault, Bob

Rickford, Greg

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1470.60%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (145/147 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Greg Rickford


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15 10 18 Jeff S
This is one where two strong NDP and LPC candidates will permit the CPC to come down the middle.
15 10 18 DSR
Just to endorse what other recent contributors have said. The NDP will poll well but likely finish third. I wouldn't like to call the winner even at this stage but I suspect that Rickford still may have a slight advantage. Definitely one of the most interesting ridings in this election with three very strong candidates all of whom had chances of winning.
15 10 17 SPP
This riding should be too close to call - because it is a Liberal-Conservative race. The NDP will not win here and I'm bewildered as to why it's been called for them. This needs to be put in TCTC or called for either the Liberals or Conservatives (no idea which one will prevail but it will be very close).
15 10 17 Marco Ricci
I think Greg Rickford of the Conservatives may hold on. I would give the Cons a narrow edge here.
I think the presence of both Robert Nault and Howard Hampton makes it difficult for the Opposition vote to coalesce behind one main non-Conservative candidate.
The presence of 2 big Opposition names probably helps the incumbent.
On the other hand, with the Liberals up in Ontario, the Cons down, and the NDP expected to lose ground (including a bit in Northern Ontario according to some people), it's hard to say for sure what will happen.
This could be one of the 'vote split' ridings that gets talked about on Election Night.
15 10 17 Tes
Might be jumping the gun with the NDP call in this riding! The only poll done here had Rickford with 40% of the vote, while Hampton and Nault had 29% and 28% a piece, respectively. This poll was done Oct. 5, and the two weeks since then the Liberals have risen considerably, possibly making this a more likely Liberal pick up. I give it to Rickford with the 11% lead. Polls across Northern Ontario by Oracle Research also show the CPC is competitive, leading in the Soo and competitive in Algoma, Sudbury and Nipissing. The trend is likely continuing here.
15 10 15 prognosticator15
It is indeed a very interesting riding to watch, and it is hard to predict this one, as liberal Toronto media-driven polls and hype are less likely to affect northern ridings, and Manitoba trends are as important as Ontario trends. In the good old days of stable Liberal majorities under Chretien, the riding did not really matter as elections were decided before the Kenora-Thunder Bay time zone areas further west were called, based on eastern patterns of Liberal support. This time, just like in 2011, it will be important, and I think the established popularity of the local candidate and his strong voice in Ottawa will matter more than past glory of other candidates. Of the other two, Bob Nault is likely to have greater ability to marshall the vote, but not as much as to reduce Howard Hampton to irrelevance. The likeliest outcome is Cons first, Liberals second, and much closer this time than last between all three parties, and possibly Rickford will still be losing a small portion of his vote without others gaining enough to unseat him.
15 10 10 R.O.
both Howard Hampton and Robert Nault are well known politicians who have represented this riding in the past. Greg Rickford has been mp since 2008 . although this riding has not historically been conservative Rickford did well here in past 2 elections . its somewhat of a tough riding to predict as it features 3 high profile candidates. its also very large and includes towns like Kenora and Dryden but also many small and isolated first nation communities . its likely going to be a close race but I'm leaning towards the current mp having best odds here but its hard to make a prediction here as its one of the few ridings in all of Canada where all 3 parties have high profile former or current elected representatives running .
15 10 10 Jeff S
Poll out shows NDP with only a 2 point lead. This should be moved to TCTC.
15 10 10 Jeff S
Rickford is ahead, but not above 40%. May not be enough strategic voters to make the difference.
15 10 11 Bob
Rickford will win this riding because he is running against two strong left-wing candidates. They will split the vote. Howard is betting on Aboriginal vote and Bob Nault is only strong in Red Lake. But Rickford hired a 'fixer' from Ottawa to energize local conservatives. He was at my door today and even offered a ride to our advance polling station. Rickford will win!
15 10 08 Please vote
The anti-Conservative sentiment is strong in this riding with many voters intending to vote strategically. The NDP's Hampton brought in Mulcair yesterday in an attempt to win the native vote. Nevertheless, there are signs that the ABC vote is shifting to the Liberals as national momentum builds.
15 09 29 NJam101
This is usually not an easy electoral district to predict. I don't feel any candidate will get over 50% of the votes and maybe not even 40%. I'm predicting that Hampton will win because he is the best known and because of how he has won in the past when many predicted he would be defeated. The Kenora electoral district has many First Nations who will likely be very supportive of Hampton. Some people say that there will be low voter turnout among Aboriginals but I totally disagree and know it's not true. Hampton won provincial elections when polls showed that he was supposed to lose. It was the Aboriginals in remote areas who made the difference. (they were never included in the opinion polls)
The Town of Kenora will still probably go Conservative but not quite as much as in 2011 and I'm thinking Dryden a fair amount less. But other places will go NDP.
A lot of people think that Liberal Bob Nault has a chance. I'm not so sure of that. He has been out of politics for over a decade. Sure he was Aboriginal Affairs minister under Chretien but that really won't help much at all.
As I always say, never make predictions for Northern Ontario ridings using province-wide polls for Ontario.
15 09 26 The Jackal
Both the NDP and LPC having strong candidates and with CPC leading slightly in national in the polls will allow Rickford to come up the middle and hang on.
15 09 23 riding watcher
Expect a huge increase in first nations voter turnout. Although evenly split between the New Democrats and Liberals, they will likely go with the winner on the national scene. As Liberal momentum builds, they will go to Nault. The conservatives are losing the sign campaign on lawns in urban centres. They have no room to grow.
15 09 14 Interested Observer
Around Kenora there's a very strong Conservative sign presence, reasonably strong Nault (though disproportionately fewer on lawns than public areas), and virtually nothing from NDP.
Signs don't equal votes, but there's not enough other NDP strengths to overcome what appears to be a total absence of organization in the most populated part of the riding. Howard may have profile in the party elsewhere in the province, but seems like there's nothing on the ground.
This is a two way race.
15 09 10 Tony Ducey
NDP win here. Will be very close but I think Howard Hampton being a former NDP leader will help him win this riding.
15 09 10 TLC
To Nick M: actually, a good portion of this riding is cottage country -- to Manitobans, where the Liberals are leading in popularity. Along with the Grits leading in Ontario, the situation favours Bob Nault.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
With the Liberals moving into the lead in Ontario, and ahead of the Conservatives nationally, the Libs now have the potential to be competitive here. I agree with the poster below that because the NDP seems to have fallen to 3rd in Ontario, it may weaken their chances here, although what we need is updated regional numbers for the North.
Journalist David Akin posted this week that he thinks this is a close 3-way race and can't predict the winner. I think Hampton may have a small edge over Nault right now, but we'll have to wait & see what happens. TCTC.
15 09 07 Pine forester
First Nation voters might decide this election. They make up almost half of the Kenora electorate and are likely to be more active participants this time. Both Liberal Nault and NDP Hampton have been stumping the native communities. Advantage to Nault, who has much more experience on the native file (former Aboriginal Affairs Minister). He has acquired key endorsements among the first nations community.
15 09 07 Nick M.
With all do respect to CGD. Northern Ontario is nothing like Ontario. This is remote Ontario, not cottage country Ontario. I would no correlate provincial polls to this riding.
15 09 03 CGD
Should be a close 3-way race. Tory incumbent, 2 former local representatives running for the Liberals & NDP. With NDP numbers overall looking weak in Ontario, I expect the Liberals will take this one.
15 08 28 Nick M.
I'm a firmly convinced Howard will win it. I'm an outsider with know personal knowledge of the riding. Provincially and federally it will swing in any direction, but I think Howard has a very strong profile to give the NDP the needed bump.
15 08 25 Observer
If lawn signs are an indication of political strength, Bob Nault appears to be in the lead. He has more lawns in Kenora, Dryden and Red Lake than Rickford, while a few Hampton voters are hauling out old NDP signs from past provincial elections. Rickford's paid Conservative staffers were busy placing signs on public property -- an indicator of party zeal but not public support. I know of at least three former Conservative voters who have told the campaign office to keep their signs this election.
15 08 14 jeff316
The only politicians that garner more apathy than incumbents are past-incumbents. Nault probably thought he had this in the bag until Hampton announced. Howie probably thought he had this in the bag until he started canvassing. In reality, neither was in the race. Rickford wins easily.
15 08 12 Interested Observer
Driving through the riding this past weekend Rickford has, at least in the early going, by far the most visible presence. Tons of signs out, with very few for the other candidates.
Hard to know how much weight to put on that, but from the comments posted about the organizational strength of the Liberals and NDP, that's not apparent on the ground.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This is another neck and neck riding according to the polls, this time between the NDP and the Conservatives, and the Liberals shouldn't be discounted either. I'm inclined to give this riding to the NDP owing to the fact that Howard Hampton, the popular former provincial NDP leader, is the candidate here. This riding is also interesting since we have a current cabinet minister also facing a former Liberal cabinet minister. This will be a battle royale, but I think Hampton should win with a squeaker.
15 07 31 Monkey Cheese
Talk about a Clash of the Titans. Three strong candidates make this one of the interesting Con-NDP-Lib ties in the province. Any of them have a realistic shot here due to the name recognition and ground game, but my money is on Howard Hampton squeaking through due to being the former provincial NDP leader and MPP.
15 07 23 PY
Battle royale it might be, but I still remember Hampton's meltdown after the 2007 provincial election in which he railed against the media for its coverage of the NDP's campaign (which was not as robust as he believed it to be). In order to survive the campaign, he'll need to demonstrate that his skin has thickened since then. If not, Bob Nault will likely have this one sewn up.
Nevertheless, when considering the race for Kenora, the theme song should be Public Image Limited's instrumental 'The Order Of Death,' as I believe that the political career or aspirations of at least one of the major candidates could well be over by the time the ballots have all been counted.
15 07 20 True North
People are noticing that Bob Nault's organization is growing. He has opened campaign offices in Dryden and Kenora. Greg Rickford has only his paid personnel to help. Howard Hampton has so far been absent from the riding. Nault's Liberals have a running start this time.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Howard Hampton is the NDP candidate here, and being a former provincial NDP leader and multiple term MP for this riding, gives him a huge heads up over the other two (who have also represented this riding). This is the battle of the Giants and Hampton will squeak through.
15 06 28 A.S.
Of course, if the NDP wave continues into the election, we might just as well be seeing an absolute-case-scenario of a 2011-Quebec-Orange-Crush-style (or 2015-Edmonton-style) Howie sweep of Kenora with *both* Rickford *and* Nault relegated to the teens. Farfetched; but, you never know...
15 06 21 Marco Ricci
The NDP was actually down in support in Northern Ontario up until recently and only became more competitive again because of the Alberta election surge.
It's possible that they can win here, but in a volatile election year like this, most competitive ridings cannot be predicted months in advance. The NDP bump may subside by the time of the October election (the new June 19 EKOS poll already shows an NDP drop).
It's also unknown whether voters will be as likely to elect Howard Hampton federally as they were provincially. He's been out of politics for several years now, and will be facing a current CPC minister and a former LPC minister.
Too early to say what will happen here.
15 06 10 Mr. Dave
With Howard Hampton's entry into the race for the NDP nomination, and the trends showing the NDP continuing to grow federally for the past several months, this is one riding where the Conservative will be going down to defeat. NDP pick-up!
15 05 30 NGU
The NDP was already preparing to gain seats in Northern Ontario before the news of Howard Hampton's candidacy. He is an experienced parliamentarian and leader. While I don't know if it will be a landslide for the NDP I feel pretty confident saying that with the recent NDP jump in all the polls and Howard Hampton's candidacy this one will go NDP.
15 05 16 Gillian
I love reading the rumours that Liberal trolls like the spread. My aunt lives in Red Lake and is an NDP member - everyone in the Kenora riding loves Howie Hampton! Easy NDP win with Howard Hampton running.
15 04 14 Northlander
Local New Democrats have turned a cold shoulder to the prospect of a Howard Hampton parachute candidacy imposed by Mulcair. Bob Nault, in seeking the Liberal nomination, has revitalized the Liberal party and its volunteers. As a former cabinet minister and MP for 14 years, he would be the most experienced federal politician in the race. These factors and federal trends may leave Conservative Greg Rickford in third place.
15 04 06 NJam101
If Howard Hampton is indeed the NDP candidate then I'm pretty sure he will win and by a good margin.
Greg Rickford, although he's the federal minister of Natural Resources, is not exactly making much of a name for himself. He is not well known in Northern Ontario unlike Hampton and will only likely be re-elected if no strong candidate runs against him in Kenora.
I would love to see a debate between Rickford and Hampton. Hampton would decimate Rickford. Don't forget that Hampton was leader of the Ontario NDP for 13 years and known for his excellent debating and speaking skills. He is also a former Attorney General and MNR minister.
15 03 29 monkey
Too early to tell but if either the NDP or Liberals can get a strong turnout amongst the aboriginal community as well as unite non-conservatives they have a good shot at winning here. Greg Rickford off course as incumbent helps the Tories as well as the unpopularity of the gun registry and fear it could be brought back might also help save the Tories. Had it not been for the gun registry, I don't think the Tories would have ever won this riding to begin with.
15 03 27 Marco Ricci
Former Liberal cabinet minister Bob Nault has announced he is running for the Liberals, but Howard Hampton hasn't decided for the NDP yet. Presumably the Liberals will nominate Bob Nault soon, and Howard Hampton will decide one way or another for the NDP. In the meantime, Greg Rickford may retain some benefit from incumbency & being a cabinet minister while the Liberals & NDP sort themselves out.
15 03 24 JC
There's really no idea what the heck is going to go on in this riding, it could very well be a three way race as it looks like all parties are going to put forth very strong candidates, however, if it's true that Howard Hampton is entering the race in Kenora I would have to give it to the NDP, it might be one of the few pickups they make on election night.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
A very interesting race shaping up! The CPC stronghold in the north with both the Liberals and NDP potentially running strong candidates with name recognition. Former Liberal MP Bob Nault and former NDP MPP (and provincial party leader) Howard Hampton. This will be one to watch and I will reserve judgement at this time.

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