Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Kitchener Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:42:37

Constituency Profile


Cadell, Susan

Ichim, Julian

Miladinovic, Slavko

Saini, Raj

Wendler, Nicholas

Woodworth, Stephen

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3950.84%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Kitchener Centre
   (175/214 polls, 84.90% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Stephen Woodworth

   (39/214 polls, 15.10% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Peter Braid


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15 10 18 prognosticator15
Too much reliance on the polls on this site.
I tend to regard riding-level polls in particular as being only slightly more reliable than pathologies of a progressivist mind such as 'climate change' theories. With a solid conservative (small c) views and good work in Ottawa, Woodworth is more popular than your average Conservative MP, this will be close and with a good voter mobilization, Cons candidate has an edge (if one is forced to call a close race).
15 10 14 Marco Ricci
A new Environics riding poll was released today showing a large Liberal lead in Kitchener Centre:
Liberal/Saini (46)
Conservative/Woodworth (28)
NDP/Cadell (22)
Green/Wendler (4)
15 10 13 M K
With the Liberal surge across Ontario cementing, I think it's time to call this one. There was an Environics poll here (Sept 18-22 in-field), with a narrow L lead then, which would have only tilted more in their favour since.
As much as 10% of the electorate nationally voted in Thanksgiving weekend advanced polls. With the ~60% turnout we've been seeing lately, the votes cast so far could be up to 16% of the total that will be cast. With Liberals holding the polling lead over that advanced voting window, it gives them further edge going into Election Day.
15 10 13 South Islander
Environics/LeadNow has Saini ahead 46/28. This should be enough to call it.
15 10 13 seasaw
This has traditionally been a Liberal riding. In the last 15 elections it's gone Liberal 9 times and Tory 6 times and 2 of those were complete Tory landslides.The Liberals appear to be winning the election, they should be able to pick this one up in a big way. The only challenge is Saini, the Liberal candidate, though a nice guy, doesn't seem to be very strong and Woodworth, despite his shortcomings, has represented the riding well. It'll probably be more of a 10-15 point Liberal win, rather than a 20-25 point.
15 10 12 Spx
This should be an easy flip for the Liberals. They were only 8% behind in the last election and with the numbers we are seeing right now, this should be an easy gain.
15 10 01 Dr. Bear
Nothing has been said about this riding since August. So let's look at the current numbers and do some math. In 2011 the three big parties got 40% (CPC), 32% (Lib) and 22% (NDP) while provincially they got 44%, 25% and 26% respectively. Current provincial numbers are 35%, 34%, 27% respectively. So all things being equal, the NDP should get about the same in KC as they did in 2011, while the CPC would drop to 32%. That takes the CPC below the Liberal threshold in 2011 and this does not take into account liberal gains in popular support. Couple that with Mr. Woodworth's vocal, social conservative views (which would probably serve him better in the rural hinterland of K-W than in the core) and I think this riding will go Liberal.
15 10 01 carpentier
I disagree with those who define Woodworth a weak candidate. That's the most winnable type for Conservatives in divided ridings like this. People here like those with independent views who are team players at the same time, not wreckers, and Woodworth fits this definition (like Chong in another riding). At the same time, Woodworth is better able to bring in people from Conservative base - social Conservatives - disappointed with Harper abandoning all socially conservative issues. It is certainly true that no matter what Harper will not be trying to ban Pride Parades and unfortunately, accepted gay agenda as fully as other parties, but having people like Woodworth who bring in at least selected socially conservative issues (such as women's issues) helps attract an important constituency that in most ridings feels unrepresented and may stay home - in addition to many others. This makes Harper stronger here than in comparable swing ridings. It will be a close race, but Woodworth is popular and opposition vote is divided in between obscure candidates. People who voted him in last two times, across the coalition he assembled like they are well represented and are motivated to vote. Candidate is a big force here bringing together supporters of party agenda and the disappointed. It will be close, but Harper should keep this seat.
15 08 20 R.O.
Stephen Woodworth has held this riding since 2008 and beat a well known liberal mp Karen Redman twice which surprised many. Kitchener is always a competitive area each election and say the race here is too close to call . and not sure new liberal candidate will do as well is Redman did here even if some voters are tired of woodworth. And really not sure what kind of factor ndp will be in this riding. Is still a lot of election left so say too close to call here
15 08 20 MS
A riding poll for Kitchener centre by Environics has the NDP narrowly leading. While it is too early to suggest that any part will win here, the NDP are clearly more competitive here than in the past. This riding is a three way race.
15 08 20 jdnorth
Don't count out the NDP here. An Environics poll of over 600 people in this riding has the NDP leading a tight race:
NDP 33%
LPC 31%
CPC 29%
15 08 21 Balon
TCTC is right: Environs poll from mid-August in this riding for Leadnow has NDP 33%, LPC 31%, CPC 29%, Green 7%.
15 08 20
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the NDP with a narrow lead over the Liberals with the Conservatives third in a 3-Way race.
15 08 10 Jason
This will be a Liberal pick up despite the NDP surge. Woodworth was never able to carry this riding by large margins. I suspect he will lose at least 25% of the support he had in 2011.
This is one of the few Southwestern Ontario seats where the Grits still have a strong presence.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This post may appear twice due to technical difficulties. Woodworth is a controversial politician well known for his extreme social conservative views that will hurt him in the more urban parts of the riding. The Liberals should be able to finally take him down this time around as they are currently leading the riding polls.
15 07 29 Monkey Cheese
Steven Woodsworth is an unpopular and controversial MP known for ranting about abortion and other 'socon' views that don't sit well with most Canadians. The polls still favour the Liberals here and I have to hope that the residents of this riding would be embarrassed by a MP that even Harper distances himself from.
15 06 21 A.S.
Don't forget that Woodworth *himself* was once one of those 'socon Liberals' (running next door in Waterloo in 1988). But Kitchener is not Red America, and it takes more than 'socon-baiting' to swing or influence local results--in fact, with a Mulcair-possibly-leading circumstance upon us, there's no reason why an urban seat like Kitchener shouldn't be within NDP crosshairs, either; indeed, it might be argued that the Dippers would have had second-place bragging rights in 2011 had Karen Redman not been running (and that was *before* Catherine Fife's provincial byelection win next door--and on top of everything, the strongest parts of Fife's constituency have been distributed into this riding!). So, as to those misspelling the present rep's name as 'Woodsworth': we might as well *really* be seeing a so-called 'heir to Woodsworth' as his successor...
15 06 05 seasaw
I know that everybody thinks this is a large urban area and Steven Woodsworth's social issues may not go very well, but the city has a large RC and a large Mennonite population and if you look at the previous MP's, Karen Redman, John Reimer, Patrick Flynn and Keith Hymman, they were all social conservatives, even if most ran as Liberals. So, Mr. Woodsworth's social conservative values, may be an asset and not a liability.
15 04 22 Rational Optimist
I think that this is a good opportunity for the Liberals to pick one up, but I would hesitate to say that is a certainty. Woodworth is vulnerable here given his outspokenness on abortion and related issues; his opponents could easily make hay with that in an urban area which has recently elected progressives at all levels. Local Liberals and NDPers alike should be working hard to remove him, and they likely have a good chance.
15 03 28 monkey
With the more Tory friendly parts of the city being transferred to Kitchener South-Hespeler the Liberals should pick this up unless they implode nationally. Stephen Woodsworth is if anything a liability with his strong social conservative beliefs.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
While the CPC incumbent would certainly do well in a more rural setting, I think his rhetoric will hurt him in an urban riding. He was the fortunate benefactor from Liberal collapse and NDP surge in the past. Barring either of those happening again, I say Liberal gain.
15 03 26 Jason
With current polling trends the Liberals should easily pick this one up. Local Liberals should be fired up to defeat an incumbent like Stephen Woodworth.
15 03 24 JC
Stephen Woodworth is known for being one of the most militant anti-choice MPs in the House, this and Waterloo are fertile ground for the Liberals and they should be able to win this.

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