Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-27 20:29:46

Constituency Profile


Albrecht, Harold

Hodgson, Richard

Jonkman, Bob

Louis, Tim

Villeneuve, James

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 860.21%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (119/173 polls, 71.95% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Harold Albrecht

   Kitchener Centre
   (30/173 polls, 15.79% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Stephen Woodworth

   (22/173 polls, 12.26% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Peter Braid


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15 10 17 SPP
With the Liberals polling over 45% in Ontario this is one of the ridings that starts to move from relatively safe CPC to marginal Liberal gain/TCTC. I expect this will be one of the seats that will shift Liberal if they perform as well as the polls are projecting in Ontario, and could indicate a strong minority.
15 10 15 Spx
Time to make my final call here. So with the conservative numbers still dropping I think Kitchener-Conestoga will end up Liberal on election night. Liberal gain.
15 10 12 Spx
I also think this riding should be in the TCTC at this point. With Kitchener-Center and Waterloo strongly leaning Liberal now, this one could follow as well.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
Just did some number crunching and with the Liberals at 44% in Ontario and the CPC at 36%, this riding becomes competitive. Extrapolating the provincial numbers to this riding would see 42% for Albright and 41% for Louis. There are other factors to take into account, such as incumbency factor; which is why, were I a betting man, I would put my money on Albright. Never the less, if Liberal numbers hold over the next two weeks, this riding could be interesting on the 19th.
15 08 23 A.S.
As the name indicates, this is the seat that encompasses Waterloo Region's Mennonite-heavy rural fringe--albeit with Kitchener's galloping suburban growth an ever-looming threat to the CPC's grip. So, the Conservative version of 'trimming a hedge': everything east of Fischer-Hallman's been lopped off, and the remainder augmented by relatively benign extremities of the former KC and K-W. And despite the notional 2011 figures, I wouldn't automatically assume the Libs are the prime opposition force here--it's more like a draw, and on Albrecht's behalf, of course...
15 08 20 R.O.
Harold Albrecht has held this riding since 2006 and its become a more reliable conservative riding since then as they also hold it provincially . and his margin of victory increased in 08 and 2011 . but Kitchener is always a competitive area each election but conservatives should be able to hold this one as mp well liked and better known in riding .
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
With the stronger Liberal than NDP showing here in 2011, the Liberal vote isn't quite ready to shift en masse to the NDP yet, unlike many other Ontario seats. An incumbent that has no negative national reputation at all, but a good local one, is hard to challenge despite regional and of course provincial momentum against Conservatives. 308 calls this 80% Con and Liberal and NDP votes within 6 points of each other, thus no leading opposition figure to swap or shift to. All that adds up to a Con win here.
15 05 17 Durham Guy
I'm surprised the Liberals don't have a candidate nominated here yet.
Next to Rob Anders, Stephen Woodworth is perhaps one of the most controversial MPs in Canada. He is the biggest and most vocal anti-choice MP and his social conservative views are becoming increasingly outdated. I know Conservatives who can't believe that this guy had his nomination papers signed. Heck, even some Conservative MPs distanced themselves from his anti-abortion motions. This will only hurt him in a more urban riding and a weak Liberal candidate will have a good chance at beating him. I doubt the Conservatives will be willing to help him out much as they try to distance themselves from him. Stronger Liberal numbers in Ontario should finally send Stephen Woodworth packing his bags in October.
15 03 29 D.K.
Harold Albrecht is widely respected across the Region and is seen as a solid MP, even by those who are not normally Conservative supporters. CPC Hold here.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
While it's not out of the realm of possibilities, this is probably the least likely Kitchener area seat to go Liberal. I say CPC hold but with a stronger Liberal showing than what we've seen in the past.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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