Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

London North Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-10-08 11:15:24

Constituency Profile


Dyck, Carol

Fragiskatos, Peter

Gutierrez, German

Roman, Marvin

Truppe, Susan

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2110.39%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   London North Centre
   (219/248 polls, 92.47% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Susan Truppe

   London West
   (29/248 polls, 7.53% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Ed Holder


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15 10 17 prognosticator15
A number of things work well for Susan Truppe. Border changes removed from the riding its southeastern chunk where NDP and Liberals typically make Cons a third party; now it is in London-Fanshawe. New areas for LNC are mixed in support patterns. Fair elections act by Conservative government disqualifies some of the students from voting here due to residency requirements reducing overconcentration of student vote in University ridings, while students can now easily vote in advance polls in London for candidates in their home ridings without leaving the city, and by all indicators, many did. This student vote is mostly leftist, and its de facto reduction hurts Libs and NDP. Truppe is a much better known candidate, promoted well by her party over the past four years, including the status for women government position making her name as known here as PM Harper himself. Both major opponents are little known and come from a similar professional background, divide leftist vote more than polls (or promoters of ABC vote) acknowledge, with Fragiskatos (Liberal) also having a bit of Ignatiev-style elitist arrogancy of 'I know best how to do everything' type that hurts his image. Lawn signage war (if it really matters) is won by Truppe in places she held in 2011, and in less friendly places, in particular south of Oxford, NDP is ahead. A major NDP campaign outreach in the past days gives the party momentum, but with limited geographic support, it is not enough to overcome the Cons. Ground game is perhaps weakest for the Liberals, limited to very selected areas of support, not quite a winning strategy. In contrast, Truppe tries to reach everyone, something that really won her election in 2011 against a stronger and better known Liberal than today (I underestimated this effort back then, by the way, considered it a solid Liberal riding). Cons media campaign is also clever, with ads and participation in selected most important debates while avoiding (like Holder in London West) unwinnable leftist partisan debates where academics and other leftists set the rules. Really, of what CAM mentions below, only the last point (a close 2011 race) is working against the Cons. NDP is about as strong as Liberals in this campaign, and with an emphasis of strengthening NDP rather than voting strategically by leftists, is a real contender (although not the Greens - unlike in London West, they are unlikely to have any impact with a weak figurehead candidate, in spite of showing potential in the past - it was here that Elizabeth May came second in a 2005 byelection).
The question still remains as to whether Truppe miracle win in 2011 can be repeated in the most Liberal London riding at the time of liberal media (including local paper, London Free Press), beating Liberal drums to create a bandwagon effect to spill from Toronto. After all, this is a place where pampered, well salaried and protected academic interests prefer parties funding a lot of junk science over a party that only gives grants to selected projects in junk science (plus a lot to more useful research), and a riding where leftist elitists tend to unite around Liberal incumbents, certainly provincially (as this level matters most in redistribution of education benefits). A few interest group debates made noise about such lack of funding for junk research from the federal level (and by the way, Gutierrez was present and benefited from such debates much more than a Liberal candidate in the fight for leftist votes). I suggest that without a strong Liberal candidate, with a good ground work by Truppe, and in case of a good turnout, Cons candidate has established herself well enough here to win again.
15 10 10 cam
Lawn signage + Ms Truppe a no-show (at all-candidate meetings or when asked to answer survey questions on the issues) + a weak NDP candidate (plus he got a late start on things) + a very close race in 2011 = a Liberal pick up.
15 10 07 DSR
Environics poll (15/10/4) Lib 48%, Con 32%, NDP 15%, Green 5%. This may be a Environics poll but it is difficult to believe that they are that far wrong.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
Nanos says the Liberals are at 44% in Ontario. With those numbers, they will win 2011 'close-ones' with ease in 2015.
15 09 30 CH
I do not agree with the switch to a TCTC call, as it puts too much weight on the Environics poll, which has a vested interest in making the Conservatives look stronger than they are to pull more people in to vote, which will help Fragiskatos anyway. Also, websites such as 308, Tooclosetocall, and the Globe's election forecast are all showing this as a Liberal pickup, and the Liberals lost by only a few points last time when they collapsed. Finally, I live in a neighbouring riding and have been in this seat several times during the election, and the sea of red signs is unbelievably large. I just don't see this for Guiterrez, and I'm pretty confident Fragiskatos will beat Truppe.
15 09 19 Observer
The last election was one of those where the Conservatives benefited from the split in the vote. Truppe has been a disappointment. She has signs up on a main street in violation of the city's by law (between the street and the sidewalk). LeadNow has done a poll and hopefully is polling again before the election. In August, the Liberals were in the lead in this traditionally Liberal riding.
15 09 13 R.O.
This is a riding I'm unsure of , well I admit this riding has some liberal history and held provincially by liberal Deb Matthews . i still feel it might be a bit early to write off Susan Truppe the ridings current mp. Even if she was seen as somewhat of an accidental victory in 2011. That election she had to beat an incumbent liberal in Glen Pearson. Where is this year she is facing a rookie liberal candidate and she has the incumbent advantage. The ndp candidate who got 25% of the vote in 2011 is also back for another run. There is still a month left so see how things play out here.
15 09 09 cam
I used to think that residential lawn signs didn't mean much, but during the last Ontario Provincial election, my daughter surveyed several subdivisions in north London (Stoneybrook, Northridge, Windemere) a week before the election. The popular vote percentage turned out to be within a couple of percentage points of the sign percentage breakdown for each party. Coupled with the non-entity NDP candidate (finding one of his signs is like trying find lips on a chicken) and the bizzaro Con campaign, this is beginning to look like a Liberal win.
15 09 07 Brian Lonsdale
For the poster who noted the 'We vote CBC' signs, it will be an effect in the campaign and you can count those people to be in either the Liberal or NDP camps - more likely Liberal than NDP in this riding.
There are also the 'Save Door-to-Door' signs in this riding as well. People are upset about community mailboxes and want their door-to-door mail service to continue. Count them in the Liberal and NDP column as well.
Both the models of 'tooclosetocall.ca' and 'threehundredeight.com' show the odds of the Liberals taking this riding at 84% or better. If things continue to go bad for the Conservatives in this campaign, Susan Truppe should probably be stopping by the LCBO to pick up boxes to pack up her offices and a bottle of vodka to drown her sorrows.
15 08 31 cam
How much do 'We Vote CBC' signs factor into this election? There are more of them in my London North Centre riding than any of the candidates' signs (my daughter tallies these things) - some are with Liberal candidate signs on the lawn too, but most are by themselves. I assume that the CBC signs represent non-Conservative voters (just a wild guess). As of to-day,the tally was:

CBC - 42
Lib - 34
Cons. - 12
NDP - 4
15 08 20 Garth
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the Liberals with a narrow lead over the Conservatives with the NDP third in a 3-Way race.
15 08 16 cam
I walk through 2 sub-divisions in the riding (Windermere Estates and Stoneybrook) every day. There are quite a few Liberal signs on residential lawns already; I haven't seen any Conservative or NDP signs yet. Truppe did not attend all-candidate meetings during the last campaign. That was quintessential vote-splitting - Libs got 17,000, NDP got 13,000 and Cons got 19,000. Other than the regular 'mail-outs'from Truppe there hasn't been a peep out of her.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
While I don't know how well known the Liberal candidate is, Londoner is right that this is going to be a safe Liberal seat. They are well ahead in the riding polls and the Conservatives and NDP are battling it out for second place. This is old territory the Liberals will easily regain.
15 07 27 Rational Optimist
I posted last month predicting a Liberal victory here, but now correct myself to say I have no idea. I was in London the other week and chatted with several residents of this riding and London West, and people were speaking favourably of the NDP leader who would not typically be the sort to do so. The Liberals seem to be polling better lately in Ontario, but the NDP surge is undeniable, and A.S. is correct that there is no reason to assume that there is a hard limit to the vote count that the NDP can achieve.
I actually think this is a positive for the Tories, however, and they could wind up coming ahead in a tight three-way race. I maintain that the makeup of this riding means it should be Liberal, but with sufficient increases in NDP support they may not win it.
15 07 21 A.S.
You don't even have to resort to 'students don't vote' logic to realize that students aren't the be-all and end-all in electoral decisions, even if it may seem otherwise to UWO poli-sci-sters--and besides, let's not forget how C-51 has compromised that apparent bond btw/the Liberals and ivory-towerism. And while Deb Matthews did hold her seat provincially, she did face an unforeseen scare by the ONDP--had Matthews not run, Horwath could have gone 3-for-3 in London. Now, with no federal Grit incumbent running and the conventional wisdom of a quarter-of-the-vote ceiling for the LNC Dippers busted, best to think in three-way terms here.
15 07 04 Mr Saturday Night
Fragiskatos is no Glen Pearson. To suggest he is well known is optimistic at best. Even if he is known by the students, it's irrelevant since they continue to show they don't vote--no matter how hard certain candidates may try to court them. This will be a tight 3 way race with the successful candidate being the one whose leader has the longest coattails
15 06 10 londoner
This riding was nearly held by the Liberals in 2011 when they collapsed, they're on the rise at the expense of the Conservatives, and Susan Truppe was not expecting to win this. Also, Peter Fragiskatos is the Liberal candidate for this riding, and is a big and popular name among the numerous university students here. This is going to be an easy Liberal hold, NOT too close to call.
15 06 08 Rational Optimist
This should be listed Liberal. The margin of victory here will likely be much greater than in next door London West. If you look at this riding- University, relatively affluent urban areas, some new Canadians in the White Oaks and nearby suburbs- it is a Liberal one. The Liberal Party collapsed last election but nearly took this: it will be hard for them to lose this time.
15 03 30 JC
This shouldn't be too close to call, this is the most Liberal Riding in London and there is just no way that Susan Truppe is going to win, not when the Liberal are nearly tied in Ontario with the Tories compared to last time.
15 03 28 monkey
The Tories barely won this last time around and that was with the Liberals absolutely imploded. The Liberals should easily retake this even if they do poorly in the rest of Southwestern Ontario. While they won provincially, they took a bit hit in Southwestern Ontario in the last provincial election yet still held this one.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
This was a surprise lose for the Liberals last election, largely caused by the Liberal collapse. While I think this will return to the Liberal fold, I find the lack of attention to the SW Ontario ridings a bit interesting. If they plan to take any, they better put a greater emphasis on the region. That said, I think thi will be the one riding where they focus their efforts the most.
15 03 26 DWN68
This riding should remain CPC. Susan has been out and about in the riding since she was first elected. This was a traditional Lib strong hold, but this time there has been no inkling of Liberal Candidate and we are a little less than 7 months to the election. CPC Hold.
15 03 26 Jason
Easy pick up for the Liberals. The Tories were not expecting to win this one and just narrowly won it back in 2011.

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