Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Prediction Changed
2015-05-02 14:08:23

Constituency Profile


Bhikha, Jaymini

Fonseca, Peter

Lizon, Wladyslaw

Naqvi, Ali

Sullivan, Tim

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2100.47%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Mississauga East-Cooksville
   (172/227 polls, 78.23% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Wladyslaw Lizon

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (53/227 polls, 21.77% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Eve Adams


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15 10 11 Dr. Bear
Low hanging fruit for the liberals, especially with polling numbers as they are. Not to mention Hazel McCallion's endorsement of Trudeau. This riding is siding with team red.
15 08 16 A.S.
Elections Canada's redraw of Mississauga has been by and large kind to the Liberals; and even if the Grits lost notional ground in the new-model ME-C, it's hardly an insurmountable gap to close--and besides (though I hate to say it), the outsize Con advantage in the newly acquired M-BS Rathburn polls might have been massaged a bit by Eve Adams being of 'Euro-stock' (a factor not apparent in earlier elections, as Navdeep Bains' previous CPC opponents were of similar non-European origin). Though speaking of Euro-stock, what Lizon has going for him are signs that Poles may be among the more resilient 'ex-Liberal Harper ethnoburbans' out there (active wooing through schemes like Ottawa's victims-of-Communism memorial proposal helps). OTOH Fonseca, being about as 'robbed-by-Iggy' as 905's 2011 Liberal aspirants get, has every reason to right his wronged-ness and go at the Cons like gangbusters--not unlike Borys W across Etobicoke Creek--with the only thing potentially getting in the way is the NDP stealing the oxygen (though with a perennial candidate like Naqvi, oxygen-stealing's far likelier than victory). That is, if the Justin Grits are to remain viable even within a three-way dynamic, watch these 905 seats as a key to said viability--they may play an even more interesting role now than back when the JustinGrits were leading by a landslide in Ontario...
15 08 04 R.O.
The conservative mp Wladyslaw Lizon is running for re election in this riding. It had been liberal for a number of years but mp retired in 2011 and it went conservative by a small margin. His liberal opponent former provincial mpp Peter Fonseca in back running again. The riding has also been redistributed somewhat since then . I suspect it will still remain a close race and ndp vote rather hard to predict in such a riding.
15 03 28 monkey
The new boundaries are marginally more favourable for the Tories but probably not enough for them to hold this barring a Liberal meltdown.
15 03 24 JC
A fluke win last time by the Tories, Fonseca was the former MPP in the Area and should get his seat in Parliament he should have had last time.

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