Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-22 09:50:46

Constituency Profile


Baxter, Dorian

Brown, Lois

Kelly, Yvonne

Long, Vanessa

Peterson, Kyle

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 9762.06%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (202/207 polls, 99.08% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Lois Brown

   (5/207 polls, 0.92% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Peter Van Loan


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15 10 15 Spx
This will probably turn out to be one of the tighest races in Ontario. With momentum being on the Liberal side though I think compared to last week I will now movie it from Conservative hold to Liberal gain.
15 10 10 Spx
I also believe this one will be closer than it looks by just the numbers from last election.
15 10 07 Jason RC
Don't forget that the Liberals won a slightly larger version of this riding provincially with a 7 point lead over the Conservatives province-wide. The only real difference is that at the federal level, south Aurora is in the riding to the south. That's actually a more Conservative area with larger, more expensive houses, so not necessarily bad for local Liberal chances. The way the Liberals seem to be doing in Ontario, and considering the similarity between the Wynne and Trudeau platforms, I wouldn't call this riding yet.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
With the current Liberal polling numbers in Ontario, this race becomes surprisingly close (42% CPC, 40% Liberals). My money would be on Lois Brown but I'm keeping an eye on this seat (especially if the numbers hold for the Liberals).
15 09 13 R.O.
The election is closer than 2011 but since Newmarket Aurora was created in 2004 its mostly voted conservative other than 2006 belinda election. The riding did go liberal provincially but the provincial vote had much different dynamics as riding was vacant as longtime mpp Frank Klees decided not to run again. Federally Lois Brown is seeking re-election and has been mp since 2008. The ridings in the 905 area are always competitive but she should be able to hold onto the riding . there is still a month left and it depends how overall election turns out
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
Leaders campaign in a lot of different ridings during the course of an election. Some of them are ridings the party expects to win, and some of them are ridings the party may not necessarily expect to win, but may still be worthwhile visting for other campaign reasons.
With the Liberals having moved into 1st in Ontario, and with the Labour Day polls showing the Conservatives falling into 3rd Nationally, more Conservative seats may be vulnerable now than was the case a month ago. This seat is probably still leaning Conservative, but it's no longer a certainty. People didn't expect Newmarket-Aurora to vote Liberal provincially last year and yet it did, so it's within the realm of possibility that if Conservative numbers remain low, there could be an upset.
15 08 27 Jason
I was a little surprised that Justin Trudeau was campaigning in Newmarket today. This is the second time in the last few months that he visited this riding. Would have been TCTC if the Liberals were polling like they were back in 2013/14. Right now it is Conservative by default due to the Liberals lagging in the polls.
A fiscally conservative riding, but the Liberals do have a strong base here. With the exception of the 2011 federal election, the Liberals have always been competitive federally and provincially - even taking this riding provincially last year.
15 08 17 A.S.
Bear in mind that in 2011, Lois Brown won *every single poll* in the riding--not bad for someone who lost the nomination to Belinda in 2004 and then lost to Belinda-the-Liberal in 2006. On the other hand, bear in mind that the provincial version of the riding, long the bulwark of sometime PC leadership hopeful Frank Klees, unexpectedly fell post-Klees to the Liberals last year, i.e. they're not exactly cast-in-stone beholden to Conservative causes in NewmAur, particularly when the Cons are offering an unlikeable campaign (hint hint?). So for now, a status-quo prediction with active allowance for otherwise.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Lois Brown has had this for a bit, and the people here are pretty small c-conservative and well off (not upset at many things). CPC hold.
15 04 28 R.O.
Well the provincial pc's lost this riding it likely would of stayed pc if Frank Klees had still ran. I feel Lois Brown has the advantage here and come a long way since her initial run years ago. It's also more of a suburban riding than urban and type of area conservatives have tended to do better in.
15 03 28 monkey
As an outer suburban riding as well as Newmarket being more Tory friendly than Aurora, I suspect unless the federal Tories plummet in support they should hold this.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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