Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:33:48

Constituency Profile


Aspin, Jay

Jodouin, Kathleen

Peltier, Nicole

Rota, Anthony

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (223/226 polls, 98.84% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jay Aspin

   Nickel Belt
   (3/226 polls, 1.16% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Claude Gravelle


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15 10 18 Brainstrained
This is all over except for the Tory tears. No NDP surge could possibly turn this seat into a Tory-hold. The weight of Harper and his government ensures a lacklustre MP, Aspin, running a lacklustre campaign will be looking for a new job Tuesday.
15 10 17 NJam101
CTV Northern Ontario-Oracle Poll for this district:
Among decided voters:
Rota (LPC) 47%
Aspin (CPC) 31%
Jodouin (NDP) 16%
Peltier (GPC) 6%
15 10 16 Jeff S
Poll out has LPC up by 16 in this riding.
15 10 16 DSR
Oraclepoll Research (15/10/8) Lib 47%, Con 31%, NDP 16%. Rota on his way back to Ottawa.
15 10 08 Dr. Bear
Final report from the ground until election day (will be away from town next week). All three main-party candidates have been hitting the airwaves and I think it's going to be a slug-fest. The people I've been hearing from mostly seem to be hostile towards the conservatives (though this is not a representative sample of the city). People seem keen to vote this time around (overheard patrons in a bar this afternoon asking if they had voted already); I think the very close race last time makes people feel like their vote has purpose. Looking at lawn signs, Aspin supporters are notably down since 2011. By this time last election, there were far more blue signs in town. Have noticed new signs for both the NDP and the Liberals, however for every one new sign for Jodouin, there are 2 - 3 for Rota. I think Rota will win with a comfortable margin.
15 10 01 Dr. Bear
Update from the ground. I went for a wander this evening and took note of lawn signs. Of particular interest was the area I lived in back in 2011 (near Memorial Gardens). There were very few lawn signs for any party but the only ones present were Liberal party signs. In 2011, this area was filled first with Rota signs and then (in the last few weeks of the campaign) Aspin signs popped up like weeds. Nary a blue sign to be seen now. As this is a high traffic area, I would suspect that team blue would have plunked signs all over if the support was still here.
One thing I have noticed over the past few days is that there are new signs appearing in North Bay, however they are all Rota signs. And while this may be my imagination, but I'm fairly certain that a few of the NDP signs near downtown have disappeared. To comment on the previous poster's mention about West Ferris, it is an area of town I seldom visit (the last time was in late August, where I did notice about a 50:50 mix of signs for teams blue and red), so I can't confirm or deny what was stated. I should point out that this area is on the outskirts of town. We often see the edges of cities being more conservative friendly that the cores. Perhaps North Bay is matching larger centers with NDP support near downtown, Liberal support in the center and Conservative support on the edge.
15 10 01 Brainstrained
I'm confident that Rota will regain the seat despite northener's opinion.
The Tri-towns only account for about 10% of the riding's voters. North Bay accounts for two-thirds, and Rota appears to be doing very well there, and not just in pockets. People upset by the gun registry likely did not vote Liberal, so are not lost votes for Rota. Not to mention in political terms, that's almost ancient history, especially since he hasn't been the MP for four years.
The NDP do appear to be doing well in the core of North Bay. And the Liberals may or may not pile up a big margin there. That will depend, however, not only on how many former Liberal voters support the NDP, but on how many Tory voters from the last election will still vote for Aspin. Since the ?Save Canada Post? signs outnumber the ?Aspin? signs here, I suspect the Tories are going to sink as far or farther than the Liberals here.
Aspin needs to do better in a lot more places than pockets like Massey Dr. He only won by 18 votes, and would have lost by well over 100 under the current, slightly revised boundaries. Last election the Tories polled 37-38% nationally, now they're down to 31-32%. The Liberals polled 24-25% and are now polling 29-30%. That 10% gap has narrowed to a couple points, and Nipissing-Timiskaming is not isolated from national trends.
In a couple weeks, media outlets will colour us Liberal red.
15 10 01
I really challenge Northerner re lawns signs. Massey Dr. has never been Liberal territory. I suggest that he check areas such as Jane, Camelot, Janey, Front etc. Jay Aspin has avoided most debates for the Conservatives. Rota lost by 18 votes the last time. It will not happen this time. Jay has been an embarassment. The Energy East pipeline is a huge Issue. In 2012 Aspin voted to remove federal evironment protection from Trout Lake--North Bays source of water. Oil could soon be travelling under this lake. Aspin will pay a price for this,The NDP has a fine candidate but there is such a fear of Harper that many will vote strategically by voting Rota. My prediction--Rota wins by3000.
15 09 29 northerner
Tony Rota has a very long row to hoe to get his old seat back. Several factors are working against him.
1. Tony is not popular in the tri-towns. I was up there last week, and saw virtually no private property lawn signs for him. The NDP have a few, and Aspin has a few as well. Very likely that the Tri-towns are going to vote NDP. The gun registry vote is gonna cost Tony big up there.
2. The NDP is doing quite well in the core of North Bay. The Libs used to pile up big margins here. Not gonna happen this time. Even if the NDP cuts away 1000 votes from the Libs, that's a serious blow.
3. Aspin is doing better than last time in, yes, pockets of North Bay. I would encourage the moderator to take a drive down Massey Dr. in West Ferris and observe the lawn sign situation. This used to be another area where the libs piled up big margins.
IF Aspin wins, he will win on a split. First person to get 16500 votes takes it.
15 09 30 NJam101
MP Jay Aspin won here in 2011 with 36% (and there was a recount) while the CPC won a majority. I certainly don't see the CPC vote increasing here. And even if they hang on to their vote, Rota will win.
The NDP candidate, Kathleen Jodouin is quite strong but will lose many potential votes to Anthony Rota as many progressive voters will support him to defeat Aspin. Rota is seen as the one to vote for if you don't want to support Harper.
15 09 17 Prairie Bumpkin
Aspin was a no show at the all candidates debate at Nipissing University that was well attended. His absence is notable as he is really sticking to conservative oriented events. It seems like he is trying to avoid embarrassment and mistakes
15 09 15 Dr.Bear
Update on the ground in this riding: the Liberals are clearly winning the sign war. That is not to say that Aspin doesn't have pockets of support (he does) but Rota has much more. The thing that is most interesting is the number of Jodouin signs I have been seeing on private lawns in town. I would say she has as many as Aspin has, and she has cornered the market on lawn signs on a few streets. In comparison to the last election, this is a major change, when the NDP had none at all. I will also point out that last time, Aspin had more visible support (especially in the last couple of weeks when the Iggy-train went off the track). I think the NDP have a long-term strategy here. I think they are (wisely and correctly) anticipating a minority government and are setting themselves up for future gains, as opposed to winning this time around.
I would like to respond to RO's comment from last month (FYI: It is just Dr. Bear now. My long time co-commentator sadly passed away a couple of years ago. I am especially missing our predictioneering debates as of late). I am glad you have been to our fair town; I have been to many places all over the world (58 countries as of this posting), but that doesn't necessarily mean I understand how or why people choose to vote a particular way in these locations. Your comments suggest to me (particularly about the last provincial election) that you do not understand the particularities of this riding. As I (and others) have said, voters chose Fedeli, not Hudak in the last election. Fedeli is able to garner support from a wide range of voters. I voted for him because he was the best candidate; secure in the knowledge that Hudak was not going to become premier (as was obvious from the polling numbers). Aside from the strength of the candidate, provincially the local ballot question dealt with Ontario Northland. The moment the OLP said that it was potentially up for sale was the moment they lost this riding for a long time. ONTC is a huge employer locally and it's loss would devastate the local economy. It's going to take a very long time before the OLP gets this seat back. As for the federal scene, like I said several times already, Aspin is not Fedeli. Aspin has been a nothing-MP; a silent back-bencher who comes off as a Harper-stooge when he does bother to say anything. He will not be getting the soft-progressive vote that he got last time when the Liberals imploded. Sorry, but Aspin's days are numbered.
15 09 15 Initial
Allow me to clarify my remark about a Trudeau implosion. I was referring to the fact he was polling well over 40% soon after becoming leader and it looked like opposition to the CPC was coalescing around the LPC at the expense of the NDP. Now it appears the NDP is becoming the choice of ABC voters (of course, that may now be changing again) and for Rota in Nip-Tim that is a problem.
The right-of-centre vote in Nipissing-Timiskaming is remarkably immune to what is going on in the rest of the province. From 1993 to 2011 the combined Reform/PC, CA/PC or CPC candidate has received between 32% and 37% of the vote. Out of 7 elections since 1993, Jay Aspin has had only the third best conservative result - yet he won the election. He did it because so much of the previous Liberal vote went to the NDP. That could happen again, since the NDP are mounting an actual campaign in Nip-Tim this time.
15 09 08 Brainstrained
I'm leaning Liberal, for many of the reasons posted by others earlier:
- Tory Aspin beat Liberal Rota by only 18 votes;
- boundary adjustments have cut off two principally Conservative areas of the riding;
- Rota, who was a popular Liberal MP, is running again;
- Aspin did a reasonable job as an MP, but he failed to stand out as a Conservative MP (which is the way Harper likes his MPs) and build much of a following. Aspin is not at all like provincial Tory MPP Vic Fedeli, very personable and popular, with support spanning the political spectrum. Fedeli wins on his name alone, Aspin needed Harper and Conservative coattails to barely win;
- There are no Harper and Conservative coattails this time around. The political baggage of eight years in government, including the last four as a majority government will weigh down the Conservative vote;
- There seems to be a lack of a motivating vote issue for Conservatives, who made hay of the long gun registry last time to solidify and motivate their base.
The fly in the ointment for Liberals may be the NDP vote, which cost them the riding last time.
- Mulcair is not Jack Layton, but the difference may not be that great;
- the redistribution definitely hurt the Conservatives, but may well have helped the NDP as much as the Liberals;
- NDP candidate Jodouin is running a more visible campaign than the last.
Since I think disaffected Tory voters are more likely to vote Liberal than NDP (many probably voted Liberal in the past), this riding will likely be decided on how effectively the NDP attracts voters away from the Liberals.
I doubt they can pull enough to win the riding, but with a strong local and national campaign, they may be able to spoil it again for the Liberals if Aspin holds the Conservative base.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
Initial, I'm not sure what you mean when you refer to a 'Trudeau implosion'. Perhaps you are watching a different race than the rest of the pollsters? All the new polling shows the Liberals gaining support, and in fact passing the Conservatives, including in Ontario. The big story on CTV National News with Lisa LaFlamme on Labour Day was the Nanos poll showing the Conservatives falling into 3rd. Ipsos, Forum & Leger also show the Conservatives in 3rd. If there is an 'implosion', it appears to be happening in the Conservative campaign. CTV's Robert Fife says that CPC Campaign Director Jenni Byrne is under fire right now.
Anyway, returning to this riding, the Liberal chance of winning here has increased from 80% in early August to 90% as of Labour Day, according to 308.
Now because seat projections can't take all local factors into account, particularly in Northern Ontario, there's no way to know for sure what will happen here without more specific riding data. However, with Liberal support up and Conservative support down, it certainly appears that Anthony Rota, who only lost by about 18 votes in a questionable result in 2011 has a good shot at winning the riding back in 2015. I'll leave this riding as TCTC, just to be cautious.
15 09 08 Old Guy
Like 'initial' I have lived in the riding for over 40 years and can match his campaign involvement.He is off base in his prediction. First of all Trudeau has not imploded--the polls here and across the country show the exact opposite.Also as the party poll numbers fluctuate one number remains constant--70% of Canadians intend to vote against Harper. The anti-Harper sentiment is strong here. Harper's last week invitees only rally in North Bay was pathetic joke.There are indications that there will be a lot of strategic voting here.A big indication was the announcement on Labour Day by the president of the North Bay Labour Council that made it clear that his council would not be support any specific party. The big question will be--who has the best chance to defeat the Conservative candidate. I suggest most would answer that the Liberal candidate is the person to do that
15 09 07 Nick M.
Won't go Conservative. That's all I can guarantee. In Ontario, look at each riding and subtract 10%. That is the best case scenario for a Conservative. I should say this riding goes Liberal, but I am in denial and believing the NDP could win it. My bias says the NDP can win, my brain knows the conservatives can't. Likely Liberal pickup.
15 09 07 Initial
Having lived in the riding for 40+ years and worked on 8 federal campaigns, it is my feeling that if the Mulcair ascension and the Trudeau implosion continue, this will be a CPC hold. Especially as the NDP are actually putting up a fight in Nip-Tim this time.
Looking at Provincial results hasn't been a good guide in the past as Nipissing has been strongly PC at the same time as being strongly Liberal federally, probably because the provincial association has been very good at recruiting strong candidates.
Aspin needs to hold the usual 32-36% of the vote and let the NDP do the rest.
15 08 31 SB
Lib candidate Anthony Rota narrowly defeated (18 votes) in last election. Clearly head and shoulders over wretched Con incumbent Jay Aspin. Long gun registry was very influential in Rota's loss, but it's anon-issue this time. If lawn signs are a good indicator Rota is well ahead. Rota is running a strong open and accessible campaign. And although the NDP have increased their vote here in recent years, it's never been fertile ground for the Dippers.
15 08 25 A.S.
Re the NDP actually making an effort here: more should be made of how (with an assist from how prov/fed riding boundaries do not align in Northern Ontario) there's one big factor in 2015 that wasn't in place in 2011--a provincial NDP office holder in the Timiskaming/North Nipissing part, John Vanthof. So it's altogether understandable why the Vanthof/Angus dynamic would be breathing hard southward, even if breaking the presumed Rota/Aspin deadlock might seem like cutting butter. (Come to think of it, the ONDP even came close to dislodging the Liberals for second in Nipissing--and actually did so on E-day; it was the advance polls that saved the Grits' hide.)
15 08 12 Sykes
The Nipissing area traditionally votes Liberal in Federal elections, and even with the Michael Ignatieff-led Liberal implosion four years ago, Anthony Rota only lost by a hair to Jay Aspin. It would only take a minuscule shift to hand this riding back to the Liberals, so based on opinion polls and the voting history of this area, a Liberal win seems likely.
15 08 11 PR
Full disclosure: the two posts predicting an NDP win here are not really a trend, they are a result of a conversation that took place in our rec room as we were reading the posts on this site and wondering why there was no reflection of what we were seeing and hearing in our community. We both posted without the other realizing it. One of us is obviously more long-winded than the other.
15 08 10 A.P.
Longshot, but the NDP must have some information about this riding, or Mulcair wouldn't have come. The 2014 provincial results, on the federal boundaries put it within reach if the voters, especially in the north end, are comfortable enough with Mulcair to vote New Democrat instead of Liberal. The NDP history in the Temiskaming area is strong.
15 08 09 PR
I live in this riding. I am currently living in one of the southern communities, but lived in the northern part of the riding for most of a decade.
There are a lot of assumptions made about this riding that are based on dated and/or incomplete information. There are things going on here that feel really different than past elections.
The NDP took 21% here in 2011 with a paper candidate and no campaign (not an exaggeration). If you redistribute the 2014 provincial election onto the new federal boundaries, the NDP would finish a very strong second. They have a rock solid base in the northern part of the riding, which is home to both an NDP MPP (John Vanthof) and Charlie Angus, who is MP for the neighbouring riding to the north, Timmins-James Bay. They will win this part of the riding with little difficulty.
It's a different, more complicated story in the southern part of the riding where most of the voters live.
Liberal Anthony Rota lost a squeaker in 2011 to Conservative Jay Aspin. Aspin is an odd guy who has not performed well as MP. The Conservatives have a fat bank account but the serious weakness of the candidate will not be compensated for by spending big. Too many people just don't like the guy. I predict he'll finish third. Some of that drift will benefit the Liberals, but a lot of people around here don't like Justin Trudeau (and didn't even before the attack ads kicked in). It will be interesting to see how much Conservative support shifts to the NDP and how much stays home.
Rota talks about how many doors his campaign has already knocked on, but leaves out the part about how it was done by dozens of out-of-towner delegates to a Young Liberals meeting at Nipissing U. Although the official story is that the seat was lost to robocalls and the Ignatieff effect, there are lots of Liberals who will tell you that they would have won if the candidate and his team had not taken the result for granted and coasted through the campaign. The book on Rota is that he's a gladhander, not a campaigner. Defeated MPs, MPPs and whatnot who attempt comebacks often confront a sentiment that they had their shot and got beat and its time they moved on, and I'm hearing some of that regarding Rota.
There is a large Francophone population here with strong connections to Quebec, and a lot of people (especially guys) really like Mulcair. There is an NDP MP just over the provincial border in Quebec, and a very popular Francophone NDP MP in the riding next-door to the west in Claude Gravelle.
The NDP are running a real campaign. They booked a highly visible campaign office weeks before the writ dropped, in a newish building on Main Street in North Bay. There are rumours that they will have an office in Temiskaming Shores (northern part of the riding). They have a really credible candidate with working knowledge of the whole riding in health care worker Kathleen Jodouin. It remains to be seen whether they can muster the bodies to get it done over a whole campaign, but they've been pretty visible with their campaign so far.
The result is going to be decided by whether Rota can hold enough vote from swinging to the NDP to pull out a win. He will have significant opposition this time. Mulcair obviously thinks this riding is winnable; it was the last stop on his Ontario swing before the writ and he got a warm welcome. There is a very solid base for the NDP in the north of the riding and significant support for the NDP elsewhere. If Trudeau doesn't impress and Mulcair continues to look like a winner, the fact that the NDP is running a very good candidate in Jodouin and apparently working much harder than last time is probably enough to swing this into the orange column.
15 08 08 R.O.
To respond bear and ape prof and update my post . I realise that posted lives in the riding and I have been to north bay numerous times over the years . so yes I have been to the city , it is larger than some of the larger towns in other nearby ridings the cpc holds. It does have a large university which means there is actually a lot more younger people in north bay than other ridings. But all that info has little to do with political activities in the riding , like which riding association has more members ? who has raised the most money ( according to pundits guide the cpc association for this riding is well funded ) ? who has the most volunteers this election ? what has Jay Aspin done during his 4 years as mp ? do voters in the riding miss Anthony Rota being there mp ? what will the ndp do here this election ? . I still have a hard time believing any riding that voted for the provincial pc's during the hudak disaster would be a given to return to the liberals . I'm not say the riding is a given for the cpc but is at least enough doubt to say its too close to call it was one of the closest ridings in Ontario last time.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This indeed looks like a Liberal pickup. With popular former MP Anthony Rota running again they will reclaim this riding from a low profile backbencher. Rota only lost because of the Iggy Implosion, that should be the name of a band, and the Liberals have been pulling much higher in Ontario since 2011. They may not be in their Trudeau honeymoon high, but they are still very competitive in the province and in the Northen Ontario region. The Liberals barely lost this riding in 2011, a mere fraction of a percentage point decided the winner here and in 2015 they will win.
15 08 06
The other wildcard factor to consider is the post-secondary students' vote. We're talking 8,000 plus individuals. This election is being held on the Monday after Nipissing University study week, and a week before Canadore College study week. The 2011 election was held on May 2nd, when many students had already returned to their home towns. Since students can vote in a riding even if it is not their home riding, this matters. This should buoy the liberals NDP and Green vote, and may split it too. Too close to call for these reasons.
15 08 06 Dr. Bear
This supplemental post is to respond to both Stevo and R.O.'s post and to have an update from someone who actually lives in the riding. First Stevo: the error in your assessment is to think that Nipissing is anything like RNP. The largest city in RNP is Pembroke with about 25K people. Nipissing-Timiskaming would be better called North Bay and the Hinterland, with NB dominating the riding at 55K (the whole riding is 91K). People in North Bay fancy themselves as progressive. While they are not as progressive as voters are in big (and even mid-sized) cities, they do view themselves quite differently from the gun-totting/gay-hating/god-fearing small-town folk that live in neighboring ridings. In fact, North Bay has a surprisingly large gay population because many GLBT people flee their northern small town to 'liberal' North Bay. The native 'Townies' will make a point to be inclusive, lest they be considered as backward as the folks living down the highway. This is just one example of how North Bay isn't like the near-by rural communities (there are many). Though the voters in the surrounding hinterland are much more inclined to vote inline with small town RNP, North Bay votes differently. (BTW I am aware of the difference between percentage and percentage points. Thank you for making note of my error and making the correction).
As for R.O.'s comments, the first major flaw is comparing this riding to PSM. This is the exact same error Stevo made comparing this Nip-Tim to RNP, so I will not repeat myself. The second major flaw is not having read my earlier post. Had it been read, you would know that Aspen is not Fedeli. To summarize: Fedeli is liked and respected by almost everyone. This riding, provincially, is a Vic Fedeli riding and not an Ontario PC riding. People of all political stripes can and do get behind Vic; we admire him greatly. As for Aspin: he's invisible. If voters actually know who he is, they will generally be indifferent at best or think he's useless at worst. Not a great way to get yourself elected in a close race. While this riding certainly does have an older demographic (who are not monolithic in their voting habits), the majority of the riding is not rural (60% urban; similar to Sarnia- Lambton). The voters in the city dominate how the election goes.
Now that last comment I made raises an interesting point. While the rural part went strongly CPC in 2011, the vast majority of the city polls were won by the Liberals. Support for Tony Rota was solid in the city until the last couple of weeks of the campaign, when the Iggy-train went off the rails. So if the Trudeau-bus loses a wheel and Liberal support drops like it did in 2011, then I would suspect that voters may vote CPC again. That has not happened yet (though Liberal support has been in decline).
Another interesting point, the NDP have opened a campaign office downtown before the election was called. This has never happened before. I have never seen an NDP campaign office anywhere in North Bay, in any election since I have moved here. Add that to the fact to Mulcair visiting North Bay in his pre-election blitz of Ontario. The NDP are actually putting up a fight here! That is bad news for the Liberals. This riding will not go NDP (the city is far more white collar than resource-centered cities like Sudbury) and a strong NDP campaign will split the non-CPC vote. This has not happened yet, but if the NDP do put on a strong show, then Tony Rota and the Liberals could be in trouble.
15 08 04 prairie bumpkin
Too close to call. Initially looks like Anthony Rota, Liberal, wins his old seat back. Jay Aspin has to be done as he's been a low profile back bencher and not seen doing much/speaking up for the riding. NDP has declared this a winnable riding. Other factor is the Energy East pipeline project by TransCanada which has strong opposition at public rallies in North Bay. Where the libs/left parties fall on domestic energy policies, and willingness of left voters to hold their nose for Rota, may determine this one.
15 07 31 Monkey Cheese
This is another riding where the Liberals narrowly lost. This was also one of the robocall ridings and I think people will remember that. Their stronger polling numbers and some strategic voting will help Anthony Rota take this one back.
15 05 05 R.O.
Well on paper this may look like an easy liberal pick up due to past history and close result in 2011 . I think there is a lot of other factors which would lead me to suspect conservative mp Jay Aspin remains competitive here. First off close results do not mean a riding is going to stay close or return to party who narrowly lost . just look at Parry Sound Muskoka , it also had a very narrow tory victory in 2006 but after wasn't as close. The riding has a popular provincial conservative mpp Vic Fideli who easily held the seat during a horrible election for the pc's. There is also older and more rural demographics in this area , voters who tend to be more conservative. I think it's more likely the liberals take back a seat like Sudbury than this riding, I suspect this riding will stay close for the duration of the campaign, it's far from a sure thing for either party.
15 04 12 Stevo
This would appear to be an obvious Liberal take-back, but I'm not so sure. This riding is adjacent to Cheryl Gallant's which at one time was almost as reliably Liberal as Nipissing. We don't know if some of that changeover effect has spilled over now that it finally elected (in a squeaker) a non-Liberal for the first time in nearly 30 years. Call me skeptical that Trudeau junior's 'charisma' (of which I have seen little evidence) will make an iota of difference in Northern Ontario. Lastly, considering Dr. Bear has claimed in the past to be a scientist, I am surprised that he or she does not know the difference between PERCENT and PERCENTAGE POINT. If the Liberals are up 10% as claimed, that would indicate an increase from 18% to 19.8%, which I am assuming is not what Dr. Bear meant.
15 04 07 NJam101
At this point I feel that Anthony Rota will take back the electoral district. The NDP candidate received 21% of votes in 2011 and I'm betting the current candidate won't get close to that. Many will strategically vote for Rota to get rid of Aspin.
From what I'm hearing, many in North Bay are not happy with Aspin as MP even though he's part of the governing party. Rota has a great chance just based on his name and never mind how the LPC does.
15 03 29 monkey
With Anthony Rota running again, this looks good for the Liberals although this riding seems to be more an incumbent riding than a Liberal or Tory stronghold although it has been dominated by the PCs provincially and Liberals federally. Its certainly not hostile to the Tories and if Vic Fidelli was their candidate I suspect he would hold this, but Jay Aspin doesn't have the high profile he does. The Tories should however win most of the rural southern parts as usual but North Bay and the northern parts are where they could run into trouble.
15 03 22 Fairview Resident
Anthony Rota nearly managed to hold his seat during the Liberal collapse because he was well liked and effective as an MP. The Liberals have now caught up both nationally and in Ontario, and Rota is running for his old seat, which has now been adjusted ever so slightly in his favour. Jay Aspin simply has not been a particularly strong MP - certainly not enough to overcome the Liberal resurgence and voter remorse. Rota will take this one back for the Liberals by a comfortable margin.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
This is my current riding and the one I'll most lively where I'll be voting in October. Back in 2011, we got two new conservative representatives: MP Jay Aspin and MPP Vic Fedeli. How have the two performed since then? In the early years, Fedeli was on the radio daily speaking about the issues. Aspin was silent and occasionally Tony Clement would speak on our behalf (Really? The guy in the neighboring riding?). Fedeli regularly sent us MPP notices outlining the work being done in the city by our MPP's team. Aspin sent us one such notice in 4 years (at the half way mark of his term) and regularly sends those obnoxious fliers with the loaded questions (the same ones that got Lawrence Toet in the news in Winnipeg; trying to find potential CPC supporters on the taxpayer's dime). Fedeli has been in the spotlight and, whether your agree with his politics or not, you know he's working hard for the riding. Aspin, when he surfaces, comes across as yet another Harper-stooge, working for his boss and not to public.
Comparing representatives aside, where Aspin comes off in quite an unflattering light, there are many other factors which suggest this will be a Liberal take-back. First of all, this was the closest race in the country, with 13 votes between Aspin and then Liberal incumbent Tony Rota. With the Liberals up around 15% from 2011 and the CPC down around 10%, that alone would tip this back to the Liberals. But there are other factors too:
1. Redistribution has cut out some very Conservative parts of the riding, which would lead to Rota winning in 2011 by 36 votes.
2. Mulcair is not Jack Layton and NDP support has dropped in Ontario. True this riding has never been fertile ground for the NDP but when we're talking a matter of 13 votes, any minor shift changes the game.
3. Trudeau is not Iggy, and on sheer charisma would win a few votes.
4. This was one of the robocall ridings, people are not thrilled with that.
5. This is a riding with lots of seniors, many of whom feel that they've been taken for granted by the CPC.
6. This is a riding with a strong military presence, the CPC has some bad blood with veterans as of late.
All in all, lots of issues which will easily tip a close race. Had Aspin more of a presence, I'd say he would have a chance. Unfortunately he failed to make his mark in four years and I think he'll be resoundingly elected out in October. I expect the rural part of the riding will still solidly vote blue but the city of North Bay will stick with Rota(even in 2011 the city went mostly red; Pundits guide used to have a great map illustrating this).

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