Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Ottawa West-Nepean

Prediction Changed
2015-09-02 08:31:06

Constituency Profile


Abdi, Abdul

Brooks, Mark

Heaton, Sam

Rivier, Marlene

Taylor, Rod

Vandenbeld, Anita

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 30.01%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Ottawa West-Nepean
   (255/263 polls, 99.62% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. John Baird

   Ottawa Centre
   (8/263 polls, 0.38% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Paul Dewar


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15 10 09 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet Research/Postmedia - October 8, 2015
Anita Vandenbeld (LPC) 47%
Abdul Abdi (CPC) 29%
Marlene Rivier (NDP) 20%
15 10 08 mitchl
Latest Mainstreet poll shows 47% to Anita to 29% for Abdul http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/national-capital-region/
15 10 09 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/10/4) Lib 47%, Con 29%, NDP 20%, Green 4%
15 10 07 R.O.
I realise forum had different numbers but According to the environics poll of this riding a couple weeks back it was still a close race 39 lib , 35 cpc , 20 ndp so I'm left rather confused . This has always been such a competitive riding federally and provincially I'm left thinking it won't really be decided till final week. The election is still very close and in final weeks is a lot of campaigning still especially in a swing riding like this. Harper and Trudeau have both visited this riding so far this election . Even without John Baird running here the new cpc candidate Abdul Abdi is still running a serious campaign in this riding. Its also interesting the ndp candidate from 2011 Marlene Rivier is back for another run but maybe I shouldn't be surprised as she has ran for ndp here in every election since 2004.
15 09 28 Jeff S
Forum poll has Liberals up 46-35 in this riding.
15 09 28 mitchl
A new Forum Poll today shows a sizeable finding in support of the Libs. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1394/conservatives-lag-in-ottawa-west-nepean
15 09 25 Woodworth
Recent [edited] poll by LeadNow gave Anita the lead by single digits. Considering the basis of the poll it likely underestimated CPC support (as most polls do). This should be TCTC.
15 09 16 Marco Ricci
According to Randall Denley in The Ottawa Citizen today, Conservative internal polling shows them in trouble in several Ottawa ridings.
They are not out of the race here yet (the way they are way down in Orléans) but the Conservatives are said to be 'behind by mid-single digit margins in Nepean, Ottawa West-Nepean and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.'
15 09 12 Adeline96
Mostly a hunch but I feel that this riding will buck national trends and stay Conservative. Abdul Abdi is not only active in the Somali community but is also really popular. The Somali community is a sizeable chunk of the riding's population and do not generally vote Conservative. Abdi's candidacy may help shift the Somali vote to the Conservatives and neutralize Tory losses in other communities in the riding.
15 09 06 Tes
I agree with the Liberal call here. I visited Ottawa last weekend and the Liberal candidate had signs everywhere, barely saw any Conservative signs. John Baird is not around any more to hold the seat on his personal popularity. Liberal pick-up.
15 09 06 seasaw
This was a John Baird riding rather than a Tory riding, he's gone now and Anita Vandenbeld, who in a losing effort, overachieved in the last election is in the right place. She's secured some high profile endorsements. The endorsements, the Liberal polling numbers and the fact that the Liberals are so far running a flawless campaign, are enough to put her on top.
15 08 29 the Cornflower
The NDP ahs a candidate, Marlene Rivier. She has run 4 times, but without Baird the dynamics are changed, and the latest CBC riding rollup show the NDP inching up at the expense of the Conservatives in this riding. It is to early to say how Marlene's entrance will fare, but even before the nomination, the NDP were up 6 points over 2011.
That said, The Liberals with Anita Vandenbeld, who has been campaigning since the springtime, seem to be holding firm at present.
15 08 23 Marco Ricci
The press reports that former PC MP David Daubney is backing Liberal Anita Vandenbeld, as is former PC National V.P. Moe Royer.
If Vandenbeld & the Liberals can pick up the votes of red tories such as these, it will give them the opportunity to win back this riding.
We will also have to see what share of the vote the NDP gets when they select their new candidate later this month.
15 08 19 R.O.
Its intriguing to think conservatives went from having John Baird in this riding to Abdul Abdi as candidate. I really don't know much about the new candidate but I do know a lot about the riding . it's a very diverse riding a mix of urban polls that contain large apartment buildings and condos and more suburban polls . it also has an older population in some areas but ethnically diverse in others and a large community college also in riding. It was an urban Ottawa riding and not your typical conservative riding . but John Baird did still win here and got close to same number of votes 25,000 all 3 times he ran . the unknown tory who ran before baird still got 22,000 votes in 2004 , so there is still a strong tory base here even without baird. There is also a strong liberal base of support in the riding . whats sort of new is the ndp as they did much better here in 2011 than past years and that could alter the race here. Both Harper and trudeau have also been here a sign its close so I'd say its still too close to call
15 08 16 Swellow
I do think this riding was more a Baird seat. The Liberal candidate running is the same won who increased the Liberal share in the ignatieff crash in 2011. I think she will win.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Prior to retirement, John Baird moved from this riding to the supposedly safer Nepean. I suspect he saw the same internal polling that we're seeing now. The Liberals have a strong candidate and I expect that they'll pickup this riding if they don't decline any further in the polls. The Conservatives picked a complete unknown and that probably won't help them here.
15 07 25 A.S.
If one seeks 'star candidacy', the fact that Vandenbeld ran against Baird last time is about as star-enough as it gets *shrug*. Or, not so *shrug*, given how credibly she fared under the circumstance--in fact, I boobed up *twice* re Max Khan as the top non/never-incumbent-Grit-in-non-incumbent-seat: not only Bertschi, but *Vandenbeld* did better than Khan. And against John '45% Plateau' Baird, yet. Oh, those overachieving Iggy Liberals in Ottawa--for all we know, the Cons could end up *third* in OWN...
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
This result will be largely reliant on the federal campaign. Strong base for both parties, and no star candidates.Somalian community here is very united (despite not being huge),and will play a role. TCTC.
15 07 16 Naythan
My friends who live in OW-N have not heard from either the Con or Lib candidates here, who are both relatively low profile. This riding is most likely a swing seat and whichever way the government goes, the seat will go.
15 07 12 #ABC51
This riding is too suburban to elect a New Democrat and too swingy to elect a Tory other than Baird in a close election.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Pundits say this was more a Baird seat rather than a CPC seat. The provincial Conservatives have come close to taking this riding but never have, and the 2015 election will show whether this seat was won only because of Baird's candidacy.
15 05 25 DW
First clue of trouble in O-W N - John Baird's first move was not to retire but to run in Nepean riding, which under old boundaries he represented provincially under Mike Harris, and which is a safer seat.
Second clue. His staffer who was to succeed him in O-W N jumped to seek nomination in Nepean riding when Baird announced retirement.
Current. ThreeHundredEight's most recent aggregation puts the Liberals 8 points up on the CPC.
The CPC has nominated Abdul Abdi, a police officer, as their candidate.
Anita Vandenbeld is campaigning for the second time for the Liberals. Name recognition favours her at this early stage.
15 05 05 R.O.
Think we've known for a while John Baird wasn't going to run here as I believe even if he had run again it would have been in new Nepean riding. Historically this is one of the more swing and competitive Ottawa ridings so its likely to stay that way. Abdul Abdi is the new conservative candidate for the riding. it be interesting to see what happens here
15 04 08 B.W.
With John Baird no longer running in Ottawa West-Nepean and later stepping aside from politics altogether, The Liberals should be able to pick up this riding with Anita Vandenbeld in her second attempt as candidate for the party.
15 03 29 ottawa99
With the Liberals polling neck and neck with the Tories in Ontario and the loss of John Baird for the Tories, this should be a Liberal pickup.
15 03 28 monkey
I wouldn't call this so quickly for the Liberals. While a uniform swing would show the Liberals easily taking this, I look at the last four elections not just the most recent. In 2004 which was a bad election for the Tories in Ontario and John Baird wasn't running, the Liberals only narrowly won 41% to 39% so I still think this can stay Tory. Its fairly affluent and Anglophone. The one thing that might help the Liberals is this riding has a large Muslim community and with Harper being seen as anti-Muslim a stronger turnout from them could help tip this to the Liberals.
15 03 24 B.O.
I don't know why John Baird quit politics so abruptly but this was already an open seat even before he resigned because he was going to run in the new, safer Conservative riding of Nepean. Because the Conservatives were already slow to nominate someone else here, that leaves the Liberal candidate with a head start in campaigning. This is a swing riding that normally goes with the national winner so I won't make a prediction now but it could be much closer than the times that Baird was the candidate.
15 03 23 Fairview Resident
John Baird won by 5,400 votes in 2006 but never really managed to pull away from the Liberals in OW-N. Despite the fact that he was a prominent and visible cabinet minister, his margin actually shrunk to just under 5,000 in 2008 and he only increased his margin to 7,400 during the Liberal meltdown. He isn't running again, and he left his seat just late enough to avoid forcing Harper to call a byelection, which leaves OW-N without an MP for 7 months until the general. His departure was a blow to the Tories, but the timing of his resignation clearly served the interests of his party over those of his constituents. The Tories don't have a new candidate yet. The Liberals are running Vanderbeld, who won a respectable 17,790 in 2011 and now has a big head start on the other candidates. Provincially, the Liberals held this riding against the PCs in 2014 by 12.4% when they won the general by 7.4%.The Liberals have closed the 20-point gap federally in Ontario. Unless the Tories pull ahead and/or find an amazing candidate, this riding will go Liberal.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Definitely a John Baird riding, as opposed to a Conservative riding. Baird was always on the threshold of defeat but local appeal always saved the day for him. It wasn't surprising that he was planning on running in a neighboring riding, which is much more Conservative-friendly. That said, the Liberals have chosen a strong candidate and NDP support is down substantially province-wide. I think this will be a relatively easy gain for the Liberals.
15 03 17 DT
Baird left as an MP, possibly signaling the end of an era in this riding. While he may have been personally popular, the riding itself does not really cater to Conservatives. It will be a Liberal gain, after a few sessions of being in Tory territory.

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