Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:42:20

Constituency Profile


Leckie, Toban

Mason, Doug

Monsef, Maryam

Nickle, Dave

Skinner, Michael

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2680.47%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (244/263 polls, 93.59% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)


   Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
   (19/263 polls, 6.41% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Barry Devolin


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15 10 17 Stevo
If the national polls are correct, it appears Peterborough's status as a top bellwether riding will continue for another election.
15 10 14 Marco Ricci
A new Environics riding poll for Peterborough-Kawartha was released today.
One always has to be cautious when interpreting riding polls, but it's possible that this riding may now be showing a movement to the Liberals:
Liberal/Monsef (46)
Conservative/Skinner (34)
NDP/Nickle (17)
Green/Mason (3)
15 10 14 Jeff S
Time to move this to Liberal.
15 10 12 Spx
I have to disagree with Carpentier, the Conservative numbers are down across the province and not just in the GTA with now a couple of seats in play in the Ottawa and Kingston - Peterborough area. Besides this one, Bay of Quinte and Northumberland - Peterborough South should be very close on election day. Of all the swing ones, Peterborough should definitely go to the party forming the next gouvernment.
15 10 07 carpentier
Ontario outside of Toronto is gradually moving into Conservative territory, and this is a riding that will show the trend. And Del Mastro conviction is not considered legitimate by many Conservatives, many have strong sympathy for him against Liberal justice system.
15 10 06 Marco Ricci
Forum shows a closer race between the Liberals & Conservatives, with NDP in 3rd. TCTC.
'Liberal Monsef with slim lead in P'boro-Kawartha'
Maryam Monsef (37%) Liberal
Michael Skinner (34%) Conservative
Dave Nickle (24%) NDP
15 10 05 Jeff S
15 10 05 Monkey Cheese
Bellwether no more? A new riding poll from Forum has the Liberals out in the lead here, although not as large as the lead that Nanos had. That's two polls showing a Liberal lead and the Forum poll specifically mentions the fallout of the Del Mastro scandal. Seeing him in shackles while being lead to the police paddy wagon is an image still in the minds of voters here. With the Liberals now leading in the polls and the NDP bombing in third, I think this can be called for the Liberals, especially with Nanos showing them leading in Ontario.
Forum Poll: LPC: 37% CPC: 35% NDP: 24% GRN: 4%
15 09 29 Monkey Cheese
Nanos is a much more credible pollster than the Conservative friendly Mainstreet and the left-wing friendly Environics, both of which should be taken with a grain of salt. It's interesting that Nanos is showing such a wide Liberal lead here. Earlier I said that this riding will go to whoever ends up forming the government, but now I'm not too sure. The NDP peaked early and now we're seeing more of a Con-Lib race in Ontario. I'd like to see another Nanos poll confirm this support or other credible pollsters say the same thing before I call it for anyone. Definitely TCTC at this moment.
15 09 10 R.O.
Being open as former mp Dean Del Mastro left politics .I get the feeling this is going to be a closer race and one that might not be decided till very end. There is still a month of campaigning left and a lot of election to go here. Well the ndp candidate has run a few times both cpc and liberals have new candidates that haven't ran before . Michael Skinner is new conservative candidate and Maryam Monsef is running for liberals. I was thinking about this race and one thing that comes to mind was the ndp and do they really have a chance here or not ? Mulcair has visited the riding twice and seems to think he does . but often in elections I've seen where parties decide a certain riding should vote for them for whatever reasons only for that riding to remain out of reach. I'm left wondering if Peterborough is one of those ridings for ndp ? but jury is still out on that one.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
A new Nanos riding poll conducted September 8 shows the Liberals in the lead:
Liberal - 41%
Conservatives - 29%
NDP -17%
Green - 4%
Undecided - 27%
15 09 01 Marco Ricci
Yesterday's new Abacus poll shows the NDP dropping 6 points in Ontario and falling into 3rd place, and the Liberals rising 4 points into 1st, so it's too early to make predictions of a win here for one particular party unless we see local numbers showing differently.
Abacus Ontario numbers: LPC 34, CPC 33, NDP 26
15 09 01 Jason
A true three way race. The party that leads Ontario in the last week should be able to pick up this riding.
15 08 25 PTBO Pundit
PTBO Political Guy says that Andy Mitchel is the 'best campaign manager in the riding'. This is the guy who 'managed' the Liberal campaign straight into the ground in 2011. Speaks to Maryam's judgement for putting him in charge. Oh, but how would she know this, she's only been a Liberal for a few months.
15 08 26 AS
This is a key riding for 'soft' A.B.C. supporters. In effect, there is a cooperative grassroots movement to defeat the Conservative Candidate. Here is what we know so far:
1)progressives and principled centrists are dismayed at Liberal support for C-51.
2) Peterborough-Kawartha is poised to be a bellwether riding, much like its predecessor.
3) The NDP leads in federal aggregate with 35.4% support, and is a close second to the Conservatives in the riding proper.
4) Dave Nickle has an engaged base that includes many people who supported Monsef for mayor.
Effectively, I predict a Nickle NDP win with a plurality of 40% on E-Day.
15 08 22 Ptbo Political Guy
Ptbo Pundit You are wrong Maryam Monsef is most definitely in the race. She has the best organization and the people of Peterborough are impressed by her and her support base is growing. The office manager was not a regular Liberal and deflections happen in campaigns. She has the best campaign manager in town in Andy Mitchell.
15 08 23 Terry The Canadian
All the seat predictions websites either have the NDP in first or in the close second with the Conservatives. Dave Nickle is a recognizable name in the riding. Watch the NDP to take this riding federally for the first time since 1960 under the 'New Party' banner.
15 08 20 Dave Lang
Well this is a tough one to call. My parent's cottage is in the Kawartha's so I know the area pretty well and this will be one heck of mashup.
The Kawartha's are the retirement capital of Ontario and therefore voter turnout will tend to be higher and among those voters a firm decision on the best party. So that typically means Tory Blue or Liberal Red. But Peterborough is a very different story with a big mix of ages and beliefs. Mix this with the fact there is no incumbents, no obligations to a good MP this makes the race very different!
Lets look at the numbers
CPC 34% NDP 31% LIB 27% GRN 6% Other: 1%
I think Monkey Cheese hit the nail on the head saying 'probably go to whoever ends up forming government' as these loosely follow early polls overall. (which makes me think NDP or CPC)
Although across the country the NDP now show as the party to beat, there is a strong block of retired conservative voters north of Peterborough that will make it hard for the NDP to win. The NDP and the LIB need to establish them as the anti-harper party in this riding and the conservatives need to keep their support solid to win (it's been eroded by a war on two fronts!)
I really think it could go NDP but at this time I have to give the edge to the Tories. It is so hard to call this riding and any of the three main parties could grab it! (I personally don't see the Strength in Democracy party being a factor here)
15 08 19 PTBO Pundit
According to Peterborough This Week, Monsef's Office Manager just quit to support Nickle. And this is only August.... Yeesh! Definitely a 2 way race Tory / NDP.
15 08 18 Bill Bott
This is a three way race. Slats staes that it is between Michael Skinner and Dave Nickle. Maryam Monsef is still very a contender. She is a skilled debater and has the best organized campaign of the three. Michael Skinner and the Conservatives are hurt by the Del Mastro affair and Dave Nickle ran behind the NDP national average and has very little presence in this campaign. He only drew a dozen people to a barbecue, were Maryam had over 100 people to a barbecue last week.
15 08 17 jeff316
wait a minute. Whoah. Maryam Monsef in the race? What a coup! But, huh? The colour behind her name on that lawnsign is red? Hmmmmmm. The problem is, the Liberals aren't her natural constituency - voters will be thinking 'I thought she was NDP?' or 'Not a Green'? Trudeau or not, you don't expect a ground-up, dyed-in-the-wool community activist with Maryam's positions and convictions running for the party of the establishment. It just seems so ...ugh... opportunistic - something you don't associate with Maryam. It just casts such a pall on a candidacy that should excite so many. What a shame. Had the NDP managed to snag her candidacy, they might have just won; had she run as a Green, this might have been a four-way race. With the perennial non-entity that is Dave Nickle running for the NDP, Peterborough and the Hinterlands should stay Conservative.
15 08 11 Slats
On short notice, Mulcair drew hundreds to a rally Friday afternoon. Still a two way race between Nickle and Skinner.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This riding will probably go with whoever is leading in the polls by the end of the campaign. The Conservatives will be hurt by the Dean del Mastro scandal, as the former Conservative MP has recently been charged with election fraud and will spend a month in prison. When you combine that and Harper's declining polling numbers, I'm leaning towards calling this for the NDP for now. Of course the Conservatives or even the Liberals who have nominated a strong candidate could always rebound and take this. I'll revisit this one during the final week of the campaign.
15 08 07 Adrian
Toban Leckie is a very interesting addition to this race. Strength in Democracy is not your average 'afterthought' party. They have a serious platform, and Toban will hold his own as the campaign gears up. An English-Canada victory -- even in just a couple of seats -- for a party founded in Quebec could be groundshaking in terms of its positive impact on the strength of Canadian unity. This campaign could get interesting in this riding.
15 07 27 Monkey Cheese
Lol, 'Prime Predictor' seems to think that every Conservative incumbent is going to win their seat and that every Conservative held seat will remain Conservative. Peterborough is the ultimate bellwether riding and it will probably go to whoever ends up forming government. Right now that is the NDP. People are angry at the del Mastro scandal and the Conservative candidate, who has yet to be nominated, is not as well known as the NDP or the Liberal candidates. Right now the NDP has the advantage.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
People might be upset at Del Mastro, but Kawartha is pretty Conservative and should tilt towards the Conservatives I think. Won't be easy, but I say it's a CPC hold.
15 07 18 PTBO Pundit
If the trend holds, Dave Nickle will win this riding. Peterborough always goes with the trend. Monsef and Skinner are not strong enough to beat the trend in this riding.
15 07 08 Bill B
Maryam Monsef will win this riding. She is the only candidate that is out there. The only time we see Dave Nickle is when he attends a protest.He has lost five elections. Also most of his volunteers have switched to Maryam. Maryam has a large number of volunteers. She is canvassing, running ads, organizing round tables and has a campaign office open. The Conservatives have not even nominated their candidate and they are hurt by the Del Mastro affair. Maryam is working hard and is first out the gate. Maryam is the best candidate the Liberals have had since Peter Adams. The Liberals will win this riding.
15 06 28 A.S.
Considering Peterborough's belwether status, Del Mastro's conviction and imprisonment should be enough to spark dancing-in-the-streets among the anti-Harper crowd--and really, if Mulcair's on top, who better to continue the belwether than Dave Nickle, who's performed credibly (if thanklessly) in his many fed-prov runs. Though the NDP in Peterborough tends to be 'moody'--depending on candidacy and context, really good some years, really underperforming other years, and often depending on whatever electoral dance it performs with the Liberals; also, the westward suburban growth hasn't been the sort that favours orange at all--except, maybe, of a 'Catherine Fife's Waterloo' sort. In fact, don't write off the Liberals, either; post-Del Mastro, *they* might have the non-NDP advantage...
15 06 26 Mr. Dave
Dean Del Mastro was found guilty of overspending during the 2008 election.
I do not believe that his over-zealous defending of the Harper government as Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister will go down well with the voters he represented.
Given the NDP's rise in popularity in Ontario, combined with the drop in support of both the Liberals and Conservatives, 2015 could see the first time a Peterborough federal riding elects a New Democrat since the 'New Party' by-election win of Walter Pittman in 1960.
15 06 16
The only candidate with stable name recognition here is Dave Nickle. If polls continue to trend the way they have been since the HoC vote on Bill C-51, this riding is an NDP gain.
15 06 13 2015
If the NDP are going to continue leading the polls in Ontario, they will win here. Especially in the shadow of that joke of an MP who represented this riding being indicted.
15 06 09 Slats
This is a two way race. The Conservatives have yet to nominate a candidate while the NDP already have a well-known candidate in Dave Nickle. Peterborough has a history of supporting a winner so the Liberals are a non-factor. They finished third last time with a strong candidate and are sliding in the opinion polls. If they keep sliding Nickle will win because the NDP is the second choice of a huge percentage of voters.
15 05 17 Durham Guy
A by-election has been called here for October 19, the same day as the federal election. No doubt Harper wanted some more campaign time here. However, with the federal election also scheduled for October 19, the by-election will be cancelled.
Perhaps the largest bellwether riding in the country so this one could go either blue or red depending on which way the polls go. Since things are neck and neck right now between the Conservatives and Liberals, it is impossible to say.
However, with the del Mastro election scandal, things could be easier for the Liberals to win it. The quality of the candidates and the fallout of del Mastro will be the wildcards for the riding.
15 04 23 Jason
Whoever leads Ontario during the final week of the election campaign will be favoured to pick up this seat.
15 03 28 monkey
This has long been a bellwether riding thus I would be inclined to think it will back the winner. The big thing preventing that is the rural territory it includes in the Northern parts tends to go massively Conservative so although not heavily populated that is probably the one thing that will make this a bit difficult for the Liberals but not impossible by any stretch of the imagination.
15 03 28 Stevo
The #1 bellwether riding in Ontario, possibly even #1 in the country. Voted with the winning national party in all but 4 federal elections since its inception. Voted with the winning provincial party in every provincial election going back to 1987 (or possibly 1977 if you consider that in 1985 Frank Miller's Conservatives won the most seats, including Peterborough). Redistricting in of some rural areas to the north and redistricting out of a First Nations community to the south perhaps makes Peterborough slightly more Conservative-leaning than before, but I don't expect that to be sufficient to challenge its bellwether status. TCTC until a week before election day.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
This is a classic swing riding. The spectre of Dean Del Mastro is going to loom large in this race and it's going to hurt the Tories. The Liberals haven't picked a nominee but assuming it's Maryam Monsef they have a good shot at winning this seat.
15 03 24 Craig Hubley
Dean Del Mastro's riding. Anyone's call after the cheating used car salesman's fall. Hilariously he was Harper's ethics spokesman in the House during the #RoboCon.
It still looks solid Conservative on the numbers, but, scandals have a way of triggering a desire to clean house. Stalwart Conservatives might well think that rejecting the Conservative Party this time and re-organizing the riding association not to nominate crooks might be a better long term bet. Or, at least, many may sit on their hands.
This race will come down to candidate quality. And given the Conservative track record here, there really is no depth to which the quality may sink.
Del Mastro's smiling face is still up there on Conservative Party publicity. Costing votes. Nice.

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