Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:34:01

Constituency Profile


Audet, Jean-Raymond

Lefebvre, Paul

Loewenberg, Paul

Popescu, J. David

Robinson, David

Rowley, Elizabeth

Slade, Fred

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3450.76%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (228/228 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)



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15 10 17 NJam101
CTV Northern Ontario-Oracle Poll for this district:
Among decided voters:
Loewenberg (NDP) 38%
Lefebvre (LPC) 31%
Slade (CPC) 27%
Robinson (GPC) 4%
15 10 16 Jeff S
Oracle poll has NDP up 38-31 over the LPC with the CPC a couple points back of them. Likely NDP.
15 10 16 DSR
Mainstreet Research POLL (15/10/8) NDP 38%, Lib 31%, Con 27%.
15 09 30 NJam101
The battle of the Pauls? Well I'm pretty sure that Paul Loewenberg will win. And not because of what happened with by-election and Glenn Thibeault. Loewenberg came very close in the provincial election in 2011 to Liberal cabinet minister Rick Bartolucci which surprised many.
Loewenberg is well known and has momentum. Remember that this is Northern Ontario where the NDP doesn't always follow the trends of elsewhere.
15 09 26 The Jackal
With the fallout from the provincial by-election not too long ago. I have to call this for the NDP as theOntario Liberals are being strung by the OPP and with LPC likely to pay the price (guilt by association). Not that isn't strongly Orange before.
15 09 16 R.O.
This is one of those ridings I'd suspect might be a lot closer than 2011. For a couple of reasons , first off its vacant this election and no incumbent running. As former ndp mp Glenn Thibeault is now at queens park as a liberal mpp. The history of the riding , although it went ndp fairly easily in 2011 its always been known as a liberal riding . but the ndp found a way to win here in past elections. There is also new liberal and ndp candidates for the riding who have not ran federally before. Fred Slade the conservative candidate who got 28% of the vote in 2011 is also back for another run. My feel is even if ndp hold the riding its going to be a lot closer than last time.
15 09 14 jeff316
Now that's a smart man - Loewenberg was astute to bow out of the provincial by-election and it might serve as his ticket to Ottawa. But doubts remain. Sudbury proper has never been an NDP slamdunk, save for the last federal election. Sudbury is one of these places with enough of an NDP foundation to make them competitive but not enough to put them over the top unless all of the dynamics are right. And with Trudeau's leftward tack, a bit of Mulcair smear from Thibeault, a francophone Liberal candidate and a third-time NDP candidate, the NDP could be relying on votes from conservatives that just can't bear to vote for Trudeau Jr. This could go either way.
15 08 16 Swellow
I think Thibault is really regretting leaving for the provincial Liberals now that NDP may form government. This seat will stay NDP.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Since the by-election is happening the same day as the federal election, it won't be happening. I'm predicting a fierce battle between the Liberals and NDP here. Right now I think that if the polls are to be believed, the NDP should have no problems winning here, but I expect the Liberals to put up a good fight.
15 07 19 A.S.
Funny how Sudbury's fallen off the discussion radar less than half a year after the provincial byelection--and of course, Thibeault The Turncoat affirmed how the old Euro-style Northern Ontario tendency for relatively 'bourgeois' urban cores to favour the Liberals over the NDP still maintained a shadowy presence in Sudbury; but the instant cloud over the byelection outcome + Justinmania's eclipse (with the shortcircuiting of Marianne Matichuk's candidacy bid thrown in for good measure) isn't exactly succeeding in framing the Big Nickel's orange flirtation as the momentary blip it 'ought to be'. And above all, Paul Loewenberg--the guy who 'should have won' provincially in 2011, who 'should have been nominated' provincially in 2014, and who sacrificed his byelection nomination on behalf of Suzanne Shawbonquit--is the NDP candidate. It's like this time, he's carrying a cloak of long-overdue inevitablility--and hey; another punk-rock Northern Ontarian to join Charlie Angus in caucus...
15 04 08 NJam101
Will there by a by-election here before the general election?
I'm thinking that it will be very close between the Liberal and NDP candidates in Sudbury. Paul Lefebvre will be the Liberal candidate. We will have to wait to see who the NDP's will be. If the NDP run Suzanne Shawbonquit or maybe Paul Lowenberg then it will likely be close.
15 03 27 Marco Ricci
There's been so much turmoil here at both the provincial & federal level that I don't think people can predict what will happen until we at least see who the candidates are! Paul Lowenberg says he is running for the NDP nomination (he was the runner-up to ex-MPP Joe Cimino for the provincial NDP nomination). The 2 candidates for the Liberal nomination are former Sudbury Mayor Marianne Matichuk, and lawyer Paul Lefebvre.
The NDP did well with Glenn Thibeault in the last 2 elections, but this used to be one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada until 2008. Until Thibeault won, the only time the NDP held it was for one year between 1967-1968. With the Liberals up in Ontario and the NDP down, there's an opening for the Liberals. Mulcair's comments on re-opening the gun registry could hurt the NDP, and Mulcair has now lost 2 Northern Ontario MP's -- Bruce Hyer & Glenn Thibeault. According to Pundit's Guide, the Liberal nomination is on March 28th, so the Liberals will be getting their candidate in place first.
15 03 24 Jack Cox
The Liberals are going to have a nomination here soon and I would expect Marianne Matichuk the former Mayor of Greater Sudbury to win, she is a name candidate and can easily win this riding for the Liberals.
15 03 22 Brendan O'Farrell
Brian A, I'd be careful about saying that Glenn Thibeault is being investigated for electoral misconduct. There is no indication that he did anything wrong and there is no indication he is under investigation. Former Greater Sudbury Mayor Marianne Matichuk is running for the Liberal nomination here and if she wins the nomination she may be a strong candidate so it is also not true that there is no competitor in sight.
15 03 22 Fairview Resident
Thibeault and the OLP ultimately won despite the Olivier shenanigans, so evidently the people of Sudbury don't feel the same way that you do, Brian. Had it not been for the Olivier shenanigans, Thibeault probably would have won by a landslide. Also, as much as you might hope that the people of Sudbury decide to punish Trudeau's Liberals for an issue that is so clearly and obviously related to the provincial party, I don't think they will. The question is whether, in electing Thibeault for the OLP, Sudbury voted for the person, voted for a government MPP, voted for a party that is regaining ground in Northern Ontario at the expense of the NDP or followed the lead of their 2 NDP representatives who both quit (1 from the job, the other from the party). Right now, the federal Liberals have a 15-20 point lead over the NDP in Ontario. They are competitive in Northern Ontario again, and will certainly win back a few seats. More importantly, the NDP also has negative momentum in Sudbury - having 2 people say they don't want to be NDP representatives anymore for the same district at the same time is immensely embarrassing and a huge setback. It'll be interesting to see who the candidates are, but based on the current numbers and momentum, I think the Liberals have the edge.
15 03 21 Brian A
Sudbury deserves better. They elected a New Democrat that ran as a Liberal provincially, and is now being investigated for electoral misconduct. Just a real mess here. The NDP will hold this seat federally.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
NDP hold. Just no competitor in sight.
15 03 17 DT
The riding is currently vacant, following Thibeault's sudden departure in order to campaign and become a Liberal MPP for the riding. While the Liberals do have a big chance to win, I think the NDP will prevail, especially if Mulcair maintains a presence in the North.

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