Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:46:20

Constituency Profile


Abbott, Elizabeth

Dabrusin, Julie

Dichter, Benjamin

Richardson, John

Scott, Craig

Tolley, Chris

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3870.80%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (193/193 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Craig Scott


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15 10 11 Riverdale resident
Have just done Greek and English maildrops across 10 polls in the riding, north and south. Signage ranged from 95% NDP : 5% Liberal to a high watermark (for the Libs) of 35-40% in the area where their candidate actually lives, and is presumably therefore most well known.
Overall I would put signage it at around 70% NDP, 25% Liberal and 4.5% Green. I have to leave 0.5% for the one (count it!!) Conservative sign I did see, no surprise on the lawn of a house in one of the upmarket streets in the riding. The new candidate's name is apparently 'Benjamin Dichter', in case anyone is interested.
So, no sign of an NDP collapse here. Suspect the media are talking this up way too far, especially with respect to the 416.
NDP apparently have over 2600 signs up across the riding. One comment would be that the total number of signs up for all parties may be a little less than some prior elections, but then everyone knows this riding is a foregone conclusion.
A Liberal 'success' here would be cutting Craig Scott's majority to under 10,000. Data above suggests they won't do it.
15 09 07 Marco Ricci
Conservative candidate Tim DUTAUD stepped down today after videos of him making prank phone calls to women surfaced on YouTube:
It obviously doesn't make a lot of difference in a riding like this since the Conservatives are not in contention here, although it's possible it could drop their vote even lower, I suppose.
15 09 07 Monkey Cheese
Tim Dutaud, the Conservative candidate, has been dropped after a video of him making insulting comments towards people with disabilities surfaced online. The Conservatives sure know how to pick them in Toronto.
Anyway, this is without question a safe NDP seat, if not the safest NDP seat in Ontario. This is Jack Layton's old riding. There is no way this isn't orange.
15 08 29 Mark
Trudeau name brand + Horwath populism + Mulcair's balanced budget pledge just put Toronto-Danforth within striking distance of a Liberal upset. The Liberals are thanking their lucky stars they didn't run Warren Kinsella in this riding, because now they might just have a shot.
15 07 12 #ABC51
Unless Dennis Mills runs for the Liberals, the NDP won't lose here while Ontario is a three-way tie.
15 07 01 HFoster
Probably the safest NDP seat in the 416 (one of two seats the provincial NDP held in their Toronto collapse last year). Craig Scott has very good credentials, being a Professor, and is working to continue Jack Layton's legacy. I can't see the NDP losing this seat unless they begin polling in the single digits federally.
15 06 23 ML
Interesting analysis A.S. Yes, the riding's demographics are definitely changing. However, one misconception is that North Riverdale and Playter Estates were once NDP-friendly turf. In Layton's elections before the Orange Crush - 2004, 2006 and 2008 - most polls in those areas went Liberal. Much of that can be attributed to the high income brackets of the residents. Also, there is still some lingering bad blood in North Riverdale when then-councillor Jack Layton tried to convert the Chester Village Seniors home into a homeless shelter with little community input. The NDP's recent strong showings can be attributed to South Riverdale, Leslieville, East Chinatown, Monarch Park, and increasingly, Danforth Village and East York. So, pretty much every area of the riding but North Riverdale and Playter. I am also glad you mentioned the 'condofication' of Carlaw and Leslieville. Yes, the household income of this area is steadily rising. But based on my own observations, I would guess that these new residents are slightly less well-endowed than their King West counterparts. Leslieville's salt-of-the-earth manner attracts more creative or lower crust-professional types, rather than the the Bay Street finance and rooftop bar demo. This is an electorate that could still be sympathetic to NDP dogma.
15 06 21 Riverdale resident
Was wondering when the usual ludicrous Liberal prediction for T-D would come up! Much as it is best to not feed the trolls...
...the one thing I did want to add to the analysis below is that the mayoral election vote really should not be used in any way to predict the federal vote. The mayoral election was all about who was best placed to get rid of the embarrassment to our city that was the Ford brothers. So, many T-D voters went with former PC leader John Tory rather than stick with their natural choice, Olivia Chow.
Tory was a PC, but if anyone thinks T-D is going Conservative, please post here and give us all a good laugh.
As for Trudeau being the magic elixir for the Liberals in T-D?? Would love to see any evidence of this. Parts of the riding have been becoming more and more upscale over the last 15-20 years, but NDP majorities only get bigger.
Final obvious point - with the NDP now leading the federal polls (wow!) the last place they are going to lose a seat is T-D.
NDP hold. Obviously.
15 06 16 seasaw
I'm going against everyone and predicting a Liberal win here. Don't forget, they held this riding for 16 years. In 2004, had it not been for Jack Layton, they would've kept it. They didn't do well in the byelection because the byelection was not long after Mr. Layton's untimely death and because the Liberals at that time, were technically leaderless. Now, with Trudeau at the helm, they will be able to pick this one up.
15 04 12 A.S.
The one blur on the Jack-legacy NDP radar might be the kind of increasing Wynne-Liberal-compatible gentrification that scared Peter Tabuns last year (especially throughout the Riverdale/Playter Estates zone, plus the condofication of lower Carlaw)--and keep in mind, too, that *both* of T-D's constituent city wards opted mayorally for John Tory over Olivia Chow (though they continued to return NDP councillors municipally). But that's just edge detail--and it isn't like Mayor Tory *wouldn't* be able to work with a PM Layton or Mulcair. Still, the fed Liberals being the fed Liberals, I wouldn't bet on them leaving Craig Scott alone--not that going back to the future with the spawn of Dennis Mills is the ideal way to go about it.
15 04 05 MGK
This has been the strongest NDP riding in Toronto for decades. I don't see it going any other way.
15 04 02 PY
I have to disagree with Jason, even as Warren Kinsella declared that he would abandon his bid for the Liberal nomination there in January.
I happened to be waiting for take-out the month before that at Danforth Dragon (a Hakka restaurant at Danforth, east of Pape) when I spotted Kinsella and Dennis Mills's daughter talking shop at the table across from me. I was hungry, however, and didn't want to interrupt them. After finishing my meal at home, I was able to put two and two together, at least with respect to Kinsella (before he end up dropping out). As for whether Mills's daughter will ultimately give it a shot instead, that I don't know.
What I do know is that Craig Scott has been lost in the NDP caucus shuffle and didn't exactly take the few blows that Kinsella made against him too well.
As such, TCTC, pending the eventual Liberal nomination.
15 03 28 monkey
This is the most NDP friendly riding in Toronto so even if the NDP only wins one seat in the 416, it will be this one.
15 03 26 ML
With the passing of Layton and the NDP at pre-orange crush polling in Toronto, it might be tempting to declare this an open race. But the two biggest tests of the NDP's strength in Toronto-Danforth post-Layton have demonstrated the sheer strength of their machine in the riding. First, in the 2012 by-election to replace Jack Layton the NDP victor Craig Scott matched the vote percentage that Layton received in the 2011 general. Secondly, last June when the provincial NDP took a direct nosedive in Toronto the NDP incumbent Peter Tabuns was still able to eek out a win by 4,000 votes; the largest NDP plurality in Toronto. The Toronto-Danforth NDP have an MP, MPP, both city councillors and the school trustee, and I can't see that changing come October.
15 03 24 JC
This is probably the safest NDP seat in Toronto right now. There is a good chance this, Davenport and possibly Parkdale-High Park are the only NDP seats in Toronto after the next election.
15 03 19 Jason
Safest NDP seat in Toronto. The Liberals are not going to seriously contest this one.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
NDP hold. Jack Layton cemented the NDP hold on this riding federally which was solid municipally and provincially for decades before that.
Almost everyone here has a story about Jack. For instance, when I lived here, I once bicycled to the west end from the Tooker Gomberg for Mayor office with Tooker and Jack Layton, as the two of them discussed the Mayoral race then ongoing. It was a chance meeting but the fact that it happened on bicycles, and was a warm collegial conversation between fellow populist politicians, and that both of them ran into people on the way who greeted them warmly and encouraged them, is the kind of thing that sticks.
In municipal practice Jack wasn't partisan and the alliances he formed at Toronto City Hall carried over into a solid NDP vote for him in this riding. Liberals may like the idea of taking it from the NDP, but not in this election. It's just too soon.

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