Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:43:31

Constituency Profile


Caesar-Chavannes, Celina

Cameron, Craig

Kelly, Ryan

O'Connor, Jon

Perkins, Pat

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1680.32%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (209/209 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pat Perkins


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15 10 17 Spx
To close to call has it with the current number for the Liberals and I am also leaning towards a Liberal pick-up here. I think a lot of Conservatives will sit this election out. This with a higher general turn out can flip over a lot of ridings in the 905. Liberal gain.
15 10 16 OrangeTory
Seventy odd days ago I would have said that Perkins had a lock on this riding. Not any more. With rising Liberal numbers in Ontario, their signs are a familiar sight on private property. The NDP is completely out of play here. Yesterday I drove in and about the riding taking my kids to hockey and swimming lessons and was amazed by the number of signs for Celina. I think the 4 to 1 ratio noted below is accurate. Conservatives are done. Liberal pick up.
15 10 16 Oliver May
If Ajax has gone Liberal then Whitby is next. This should probably be TCTC or Liberal if the Ajax prediction is correct. Oshawa could be next or NDP coming up the middle as Cons bleed support in the 905 region.
Looking at the Nov. 2014 by-election result, this should easily swing Liberal in a bandwagon year.
For the record, I have in-laws in Oshawa and Durham region.
15 10 15 Advance Poll Voter
I have been a longtime follower of this site but this is my first comment ever. Lived in Whitby for 15 years. I agree with the comment about the lack of local Conservative support - where I live I would say the Liberal signs on private property are running 4 to 1 over Conservative. Something is in the air - I feel Whitby is in play!
15 10 15 JP
Like most of Ontario it's a 2-horse race. It could be in play - certainly the Liberals are winning the sign war, and Celina's folks are working very hard for her. Pat seems content to rest on her laurels and incumbency (no big push for signs, skipping debates, ignoring local newspaper questions, etc). Even so, this riding gets out the Conservative vote hard, the last by-election looked like a coin flip and ended up being a strong Conservative hold (by 9%). My guess is still a Conservative hold, but closer than the by-election.
15 10 14 First Name
I've grown up in Whitby since 1999 and the prediction index here is mostly ignoring the results of the Ontario Provincial election and the by-election to replace Jim Flaherty last November. Local conservatives are still not pleased that the former Mayor Pat Perkins got the CPC by-election nomination without much of a fight and in the middle of her mayoral campaign. With her dropping out of the mayoral campaign, long-time Liberal supporter and counsellor Don Mitchell won the Mayor's chair with ease and local Tories are still sour about it.
In Spring 2014 a nobody Liberal picked up 31% of the vote against Christine Elliott and in November a well positioned young business woman picked up 40% against Perkins. With Flaherty and Elliott both out of the picture, their political machine not fully behind Perkins, and the loss of the very conservative northern Oshawa voters that were consistently in the Conservative camp, the Liberals are hoping to pick up this riding in a sweep of south Durham like they mostly did in the provincial election. Mark Holland (Ajax), Jennifer O'Connell (Pickering-Uxbridge), Celina Ceasar-Chavannes (Whitby), and Tito-Dante Marimpietri (Oshawa) are all well known local figures now and have been very visible in their and each others ridings. Trudeau has also visited the area as often as he's visited Kitchener-Waterloo which says something about its place on the LPC priority list.
I'd give the Liberals a slight edge in Whitby to pick up the seat. With high Liberal support in Ontario it will easily sweep in with Holland and O'Connell, and they might even pull in Marimpietri as well.
15 10 14 Monkey Cheese
My final update for my home riding, unless we get a riding poll.
As a lifelong resident of Whitby, I'm honestly surprised to see this high of Liberal support. During my drives throughout the town the past couple week, I noticed that for every Conservative sign I saw there was a Liberal sign down the street or the next street over. I didn't go through all of Whitby, but both Liberal and Conservatives had about an equal number of lawn signs. I counted only 2 NDP signs. Neighbors who are lifetime Conservatives, who proudly displayed their signs on the first day of the 2011 election and the by-election, don't have signs up this year. They are fed up with Harper and have told me they are either sitting this one out or voting for another party.
The Liberals are soaring in Ontario and some polls have them just as high in the 905, which includes Whitby. My final prediction is that the Conservatives will hold on here, but with a significantly reduced margin. I would also not discount the possibly of a surprise Liberal steal as I think the Conservative support is being overestimated at 308, but it's unlikely.
15 10 14 JC
I'm surprised I have hear nary a peep out of this riding, have to believe that this might be winnable for the Liberals especially with increased turnout and liberals ahead by 12 in Ontario.
15 10 03 Monkey Cheese
Another update from the ground. The Liberal campaign team came to my door earlier this week, the first of any of the parties to do so. They seemed to be fairly knowledgeable. They also dropped off campaign literature, which so far the Conservatives and NDP have not sent out. In my particular area, more Liberals signs have been popping up on people's lawn and easily outnumber Perkins signs 2 to 1. In fact I've seen a couple Perkins signs disappear from people's lawns. Still haven't seen NDP lawn signs yet. Who knows, the Liberals could pull this one off, but I still think that the Conservatives will eke out a win here. However, it will be by a much smaller margin than what sites like 308 are currently projecting.
15 09 26 Monkey Cheese
I'm not sure where the anonymous poster below got his information from, but Ryan Kelly is not a sitting member of the town council and to my knowledge has never been part of council. His profile on the NDP site makes no mention of it. The NDP are delusional if they think they can win Whitby. They are much better off pooling their Durham resources into Oshawa, which is much more attainable for them.
Another update from the ground - saw a few more Liberal signs on both public and private property on my drive yesterday. Saw a couple NDP and Green signs on public property, but no lawn signs. I haven't seen any new Conservative signs on private or public property. If there is going to be change in this riding, it will be red, not orange, but it's still likely going to remain blue.
15 09 23
The NDP winning this area provincially seems to have really increased the popularity of the party. I see a ton of NDP lawn signs every where I go they easily have the most. The NDP have a very strong candidate with a sitting city councillor running for them. I think people will be very surprised but in a close three way race in the end I think the NDP pick up the seat.
15 09 21 Monkey Cheese
Update from the ground - the Liberals have finally gotten their game going. I'm now seeing more signs on public property and a few on private property. The NDP are running a fairly invisible campaign. I've spotted only a couple signs on public property and zero lawn signs. In my particular neck of the woods Liberal and Conservative signs are about even. Although what is interesting is that neighbors who have never voted Liberal before now have Liberal signs and some die hard Conservatives seem to be sitting this one out. It still looks like this is still a Conservative win, but perhaps by not as large of a margin as originally thought. I'm still seeing more roofing signs then all the candidates put together.
15 09 10 R.O.
I don't think the surprise resignation of provincial mpp Christine Elliott will have much impact on federal race in this riding. It will force the need for another by election but not till long after federal vote. The 2014 by election here was closer than in 2011 but former whitby mayor / conservative candidate Pat Perkins still won the riding . its likely the opposition does better than 2011 as many ridings closer races but still a lot of election left so see how things play out here .
15 08 29 Monkey Cheese
In an interesting turn of events, the provincial MPP for this riding, Progressive Conservative Christine Elliot (widow of the late Jim Flaherty), resigned her provincial seat, effective immediately. This more than likely has no bearing on the federal race, but it is relevant for Whitby politics and one can't help but wonder if Ms. Eliot is planning on becoming involved in federal politics at some point. If she becomes involved in the campaign here then there is no chance in hell of the opposition taking this seat any time soon.
15 08 18 Monkey Cheese
Since there was a bit of confusion over who the NDP candidate is here, I just checked the NDP's website and there are indeed listing Ryan Kelly as the candidate, not Ros Whitby.
Full disclosure, I live in this riding. If lawn signs are any indication as to who would win, the next MP would be a consortium of basement refurnishing and roofing companies. It's early in the campaign and even die hard Conservatives on my street don't have signs up and have indicated to me that they'll be staying home this time. In my drives through town, however, I've noticed some Pat Perkins signs on public property and about a dozen or so on private property. I'm surprised by the complete lack of signs by the Liberals after their strong performance in the by-election last year. If they want to win here they need to start campaigning now. Same goes for the NDP.
15 08 12 Orange Tory
According to Trish McAuliffe's Facebook page, Ryan Kelly is the nominated candidate for the NDP in Whitby. Two other candidates participated in the nomination and about 70 members were in attendance - so the NDP is not simply running a lame duck. Ryan Kelly is a high school teacher with the Durham District School Board and is actively involved in the community as a volunteer at St. Vincent's Kitchen in Oshawa. Mr. Kelly has been a member of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers' Federation's political action committees locally and provincially for years and also served on the executive of the Durham Region Labour Council. Unless, the Tories implode, Pat Perkins will be re-elected. If the NDP have any hope for a breakthrough in the eastern 905 it's next door in Oshawa.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Update to my previous post. My sources have informed me that the NDP have nominated Ros Whitby for this riding. She was a no-name candidate who ran for mayor and finished last or close to last. This seems to correspond with the notion that the NDP have given up on winning this riding with such a no-name paper candidate. I guess Trish McAuiffe didn't want to run again. I'm calling it for the Conservatives for now, but we'll see how things play out on the campaign trail. If they really start bombing in the polls, then the Liberals will be a serious contender here. As things stand right now the Liberals will see modest gains at the Cons' expense, but not enough to take this seat. Maybe next election they can win it. Harper would have to pull an Iggy to lose this one.
15 07 26 Monkey Cheese
I have little doubt that the Liberals will do better this time, but it won't be enough to take down the Conservatives here, which is a shame as Pat Perkins was an overrated mayor and is an useless MP. Whitby is still entrenched in the Jim Flaherty era and I agree with the other posters here that it will take another election cycle or two before the Liberals can win Whitby again.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
The LPC lost by 10% in the by-election. This riding has also lost its more left-wing Oshawa part. CPC hold.
15 07 03 DarkFlare
I foresee this riding being a lot closer than in previous elections but I still think it's going to end up Tory blue. The Jim Flaherty era was very strong and deeply intrenched in the area. So strong that the Liberals will really have to fight to take this one. I don't think the Flaherty love has faded just yet. I predict liberal gains but it wont flip until maybe the next election. (Like the rest of Durham ridings, Whitby is a longstanding Lib VS Tory warzone and not likely to change to another party)
15 06 21 A.S.
Actually, I think Pat Perkins was elected more on her mayoral coattails than on Flaherty's coattails; if it were a simple 'constituency assistant' running for the Cons, the Grits could well have stolen it. Also, the dismal NDP result should be seen more as a 'byelection thing'--not that the Dippers are likely to *win* Whitby (even less likely now that the Oshawa part's been cleaved away), more that their share will return to 'normal' levels (for the record, the 2014 provincial benchmark is 20% plus even without Oshawa). But, dampering any 'Mulcair bump' is the fact that the Liberals are reoffering Triple-C (who, reinforcing her aura of campaign freshness, might well have been the first federal Liberal to adopt the 'Justin look' in her signage). All of this may appear to be another opposition split in the works--but if so, you're reading too much woe-is-us into the byelection.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
I agree with Durham Guy that Whitby will be much closer this time around than the last few elections and that both Harper and Trudeau will put in a few stops in the riding. Right now I'm leaning towards calling this one for the Conservatives despite the lackluster Pat Perkins, but either the Conservatives or the Liberals have a shot at taking this one depending on how the numbers go. I'll make a final judgment during the late stages of the campaign.
15 05 17 Durham Guy
I wouldn't count the Liberals out just yet. The by-election showed that they are competitive in this riding and aren't going down without a fight. They were robbed of this riding as a result of bad weather and the shadow of Jim Flaherty's death. Now that it's been over a year since he died, I don't believe that the ?Flaherty legacy? will be an important factor when people are go to the polls this time. I know many lifelong Conservative/PC voters who are fed up with Harper who won't be voting Conservative this time. Here are some things to consider for this riding:
1 ? Whitby is a swing riding and a Flaherty/Elliot riding more than a Conservative one. It elected Liberals before during the Chretien years and if Trudeau ends up forming the next government, Whitby could potentially be represented by the government again.
2 ? The NDP are not in play this riding. The by-election decimated them and the ABC vote will rally behind the Liberals. The NDP will be more concerned with next door Oshawa which is more winnable for them. The Greens are a complete non-factor.
3 ? Pat Perkins was only elected on Jim Flaherty's coattails. Unlike Flaherty, she's not visible in the riding. In fact the only time she's made the news was for a negative story with her skirting past House rules and nepotism. All she does is send out taxpayer funded flyers to remind us what a good job her government is doing.
4 ? Pat Perkins is not cabinet material. If the Tories win re-election, she will be nothing more than a backbencher, clapping and cheering like a trained seal. Whereas if the Liberals form government, the candidate is potential cabinet material or at the very least a Parliamentary secretary.
5 ? Redistribution might help the Liberals. Brooklin was moved out of the riding and it is home to many families with kids, exactly the demographic Harper wants to target with income splitting.
6 ? Current polling as the Liberals and Tories neck and neck in Ontario and Threehundredeight has things tied in Durham Region. These numbers make a swing riding like Whitby competitive especially when you consider that Perkins only won by less than 1000 votes in the by-election. I expect Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper to show up in this riding a few times during the campaign.
Although the current numbers favour the Conservatives, I expect the Liberals to target this riding hard. If the polling is in their favour, then Whitby is a riding that will turn red, albeit narrowly. I'm tentatively calling this a Liberal gain, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives pull this one off.
15 04 09 Jason
The Conservative budget is targeted towards maintaining their grip on upper class 905 ridings such as Whitby.
Only way the Liberals pick this riding up is if they win a majority.
15 03 23 Dr. Bear
While Ms Caeser-Chavannes made this race very interesting in the byelection, I don't think the former mayor, Pat Perkins, will have much trouble holding this seat. This was one of two GTA seats that stayed with the PC party in the provincial election. If Liberal numbers begin to climb again and they start reaching majority territory in the polls, then I'd say this will become competitive. Until then, I say CPC hold.

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