Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

York Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:19:57

Constituency Profile


Adler, Mark

Berman, Hal

Kritsonis, Constantine

Levitt, Michael

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   York Centre
   (206/206 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mark Adler


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15 10 18 Marco Ricci
Stevo, when you refer to Justin Trudeau as 'boy wonder', you harm your objectivity.
And while it's certainly true that the Liberals did become much too reliant on Toronto over the past decade and forgot the importance of other areas of the country, I don't think it can be said that the Liberals are just the 'Liberal Party of Toronto' this year.
They couldn't be ahead in the polls if they were only leading in Toronto and not anywhere else.
Getting back to York Centre, one would assume that with the Liberal vote up in Ontario that this traditionally Liberal seat will return to the Liberals, although I think the Conservatives still have the opportunity to be competitive here and make it close.
15 10 17 SPP
York Centre is going Liberal in a big way this time around - Michael Levitt is a strong candidate with a good ground game and broad appeal to the large Jewish population in this riding. Mark Adler is a fairly weak MP who desperately tries to play up his Jewish background for votes (see the son of Holocaust victims and photo at the Wailing Wall controversies). 308 currently projects Levitt to receive 49% of the vote in this riding, call it with a 78% chance of going Liberal. I imagine it will be closer than that but it's still a very likely Liberal gain - the CPC have a better chance of keeping Eglinton-Lawrence than here.
15 10 17 Stevo
There's a reason the party is sometimes called the 'Liberal Party of Toronto'. It seems the 416 is determined to make the boy wonder PM. York Centre may yet be the lone holdout aside from a couple downtown NDP redoubts. Odds are against it however.
15 10 16 Craig Hubley
http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/green-candidate-frees-voters-to-leverage-their-vote---by-voteswapping-532993181.html is the Green candidate's press release endorsing swaps for (not the candidacy of) Michael Levitt. No idea how this influences this race, but it's good reading.
'stuffing Mike Duffy into a niqab' LOL. Also a shout-out to Hal Berman for an ethical campaign. Seems there's some NDP and Green diplomacy...
15 10 15 Docere
I can't see Adler hanging on. He's a one trick pony that appeals only to right-wing elements of the Jewish community. Michael Levitt is almost certainly going to be much more competitive among Jewish voters than Dryden was in the 2011 debacle and Adler has done virtually nothing to appeal to the 80% of voters that aren't Jewish.
15 10 15 Adeline96
This should be too close to call. I now think the Tories will be swept out of Toronto definitely in every single seat except this one - which is still a close one. Let's see if there's another riding poll out.
15 10 09 Craig Hubley
Given the close riding level poll with the Cons one point ahead, I agree: Too close to call. The Green candidate Constantine Kritsonis however is advising Greens publicly to vote swap with Thunder Bay -- Superior North (where Liberal votes are useless) to help Bruce Hyer, a Green incumbent.
That's interesting enough to get some publicity and swing maybe that 1%.
15 10 05 Marco Ricci
I don't think a Liberal call can be made in York Centre until the final weekend before Oct 19. The Conservatives won this riding by a good margin in 2011 and have really been working hard to retain the support of the Jewish community.
The Liberal candidate this time is Jewish (unlike Ken Dryden) and so perhaps that will allow him to develop stronger connections with Jewish voters in York than Dryden did, but it's still up in the air at this point.
To reclaim this riding, the Liberals need the NDP to coalesce behind them and to maintain their momentum for another 2 weeks. It was Liberal for many years until 2011, so it could very well return to its Liberal roots, but more specific numbers will be needed here going into mid-October to make a final determination.
15 10 06 Marco Ricci
This riding is TCTC.
Conservatives, Liberals tied in York Centre
Forum Poll - October 5th
Mark Adler (40%) Conservative
Michael Levitt (39%) Liberal
Hal Berman (17%) NDP
15 10 06 Jeff S
Should be TCTC. Forum finds 1 point separates CPC and LPC.
15 10 06 Craig Hubley
Calling this Liberal. All candidates except the Green are Jewish and the NDP is lukewarm on pro-Israel frothing so that advantage is equalized from 2011. With a general Trudeau surge this one should shift back where it belongs.
15 09 13 Teddy Boragina
Polls still show the Tories doing well in Ontario, and based on that alone, this should remain their only Toronto riding. Add to that a new poll showing the Tories still hanging on in Toronto, especially in North York (the part of the city this riding is located in) and I for one am very comfortable calling this a Conservative win.
15 09 13 R.O.
This was one of the stronger tory ridings in Toronto in 2011 and Mark Adler came close to getting 50% of the vote that year. It wasn't one of the accidental vote split wins yet it was still predicted to stay liberal for some reason that election. That being said Toronto seems to be going more liberal this election and polls give them a lead in the 416. I'm still inclined to think the current mp still has a chance of keeping this riding. As he has been mp for 4 years now and increased his profile in the riding. He is also facing a new first time liberal candidate in Michael Levitt who hasn't ran in York Centre before. But it depends how the election turns out is there is a month left and polls continue to show a close race .
15 08 20 Dave Lang
You normally see me posting about the Durham Region, but i'm actually moving to York Centre just in time for the election. So political junkie that I am, of course I'm doing some research.
This one is 'too close to call' for a reason and anyone thinking that this is an easy pick up for the conservatives needs to take a look again at the numbers. I foresee this being a VERY tight race.
The current numbers
LIB: 39% CPC: 37% NDP: 19% GRN: 4%
Adler may have the advantage of being the incumbent but he's not without his problems. Him being caught on video begging to be in a picture with Harper at a very solemn event at the west wall in Jerusalem didn't exactly go over well with the general public. ('but it's for the reelection! It's a million dollar shot!')
Also, some may disagree with me here, but I find using your father's tragedy as some sort of political edge a real turn off. I'm referring to the fact that a lot of his election signs list 'son of a holocaust survivor' as a reason to vote for him. I just don't think you should be using such a horrible part of your father's history as part of your political resume. My grandfather went through hell fighting in WWII but i'm not going to put that on a list of my credentials! This is something that should be remembered and honoured, not to be used for personal gain!
He's also not a cabinet minister and doesn't really stand out at all in the sea of blue backbenches in parliament. Long and sort of it is, he's not a star candidate and this riding has a long history of being Liberal. If there is unity on the left, the liberals can pick up this seat by a decent margin. If not well it's gonna be tight but I still give the edge to the Liberals.
15 08 20 OgtheDim
Of all the ridings in the country, this one and Thornhill are the most likely to be swayed by the robust Pro-Israel policy of the Conservatives. All the Conservatives need is a suave and competent candidate like Peter Kent and they'd be home and dry baring a national melt down.
Unfortunately, they don't have that in this riding.
Definite lean to the Tories but as the actual voting is just less then 2 months away, still TCTC.
15 08 03 Poli Predictor
This is a traditional Liberal riding and the Liberals have a strong candidate in Michael Levitt running here this time. Adler looked pretty foolish in that trip to Israel where he embarrassed himself and the Prime Minister with trying to get the perfect photo/money shot. I think this another re -take pick up for the Liberals
15 07 30 R.O.
There might not be as many conservative ridings in the 416 after this election however I feel York Centre is one they might be able to hold onto. The conservative vote had been consistently gaining here for several elections before Mark Adler won it . where is liberal vote kept going down even with a high profile mp in Ken Dryden . And liberals would need to make a lot of gains from 2011 numbers to come close and that may prove challenging in such a riding. And although ndp does well elsewhere in Toronto they haven't been much of a factor here for whatever reasons.
15 07 24 Prime Predictor
Let me correct myself, Adler has only had this since 2011, but he won by a nice margin. CPC hold.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Will be close, but Adler has had this since 2008 and will benefit from the Jewish vote (CPC strongly pro-Israel). CPC hold.
15 07 01 HFoster
While Mark Adler may not be well known (or well-liked, for that matter), this riding has been trending towards the Conservatives for a while, only staying Liberal in previous elections because of Ken Dryden. Dryden's fortress broke in 2011 and the Conservatives should once again hold this seat.
15 06 27 A.S.
Going back to the first post: toady he may be (yeah, yawn, so what else is new), but it's a bit far-fetched to refer to Mark Adler as a 'paper candidate who no one expected to win'--look, given HarperCon pro-Israel strategizing and Dryden's close race in 2008, this was *absolutely* planned and provided for, Adler's no Opitz/Trottier/Daniel/James/Chisu turnip-truck 'accident' or 'gift from Iggy' or what have you. Yeah, it's a stunning turnaround for what used to be hailed as a 'safest Liberal seat in Canada'; but, so it goes (and let's also remember that for all his personal virtues, Ken Dryden always seemed the 'reluctant politician'--not a good place to be when you're running neck-and-neck or behind). That Adler remains vulnerable is a generic 416 thing--though re 'older and more conservative every year': actually, any increased Con lean hereabouts would be more ethnic- than age-related (if anything, recent Russian Jew arrivals are even *more* resolutely HarperCon than the older generations they're displacing). But while history and common wisdom gives the Grits the alternative-option edge in York Centre, in today's unprecedented circumstance of the Liberals *not* being the incumbent party I'm openly wondering whether to monitor the NDP, of all things--after all, the western Downsview polls have more of a Lib-NDP natural condition (represented municipally by Maria Augimeri, after all), and even a lot of the recent condos + urban intensification (or their aging tower-block precursors) have a whiff of Mulcair-swingability to them. Well, *if* they want to get a machine going hereabouts; I'm just saying...
15 04 28 RC
Adler is a bit of an idiot and Ontario is unlikely to be as much in the Tory pocket next time as it was in 2011, but the Harper government's very outspoken support of Israel will help tremendously here. I'm going to reevaluate later.
15 04 21 Stevo
By the end of the 2011 campaign it was pretty clear the Conservatives were going to take this (Ignatieff and Chretien had a last-ditch rally here), but by 15 points?? York-Centre was once regularly cited as one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, not just Ontario. It now holds the biggest Conservative victory in the 416. But let's be clear here: the Liberals remain the 'natural winning party' in this riding and it will easily revert to the Liberals at some point in the near future. I'm leaning to this being a Conservative hold in 2015 though as I do think Trudeau's star will fade, Mulcair's star will shine brighter, and Harper will be steady as always. I can't see enough of a change on the national landscape for this to flip.
15 04 19
This riding is getting older and more conservative every year. Its the most likely seat in the 416 to stay Tory, even more then Eglinton-Lawrence. In 20 years, this riding will be very different. For now, its a Tory hold - not a bastion, just a hold.
15 04 07 Fairview Resident
The only times I have ever heard of Mark Adler are: 1) when he beat Ken Dryden, 2) when he was criticized for excluding human rights activist and professor Irwin Cotler from a state trip to Israel, and 3) when he tried to get in on a photo op at the Western Wall in Jerusalem. He ultimately didn't get in on the shot that he referred to as 'the re-election' or 'the million-dollar shot'. The Liberals have now closed the 20-point gap in Ontario, and any Tory seat is a tough hold in Toronto. Four years after his election, Adler still lacks a Cabinet post, significant achievement as an MP, political scruples, and of course that all-important money shot with the PM in Israel. Levitt seems to be a much stronger candidate for office and should be able to retake this.
15 03 28 monkey
After Eglinton-Lawrence, this is probably the second most Tory friendly riding in the 416 so while I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals retake this, along with Eglinton-Lawrence, I could easily see this staying in the Tory fold as well.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
Adler built a really strong campaign team in 2011 (I was on it), and I nothing makes me think he won't do it again. It will be closer due to Trudeau being more popular than Iggy, but the CPC's support for Israel will come out for Adler once again.
15 03 24 JC
It's true Harper has been going after the Jewish vote heavily and this riding has a lot of them in it. Mark Adler has been nothing short of embarrassing during his time in office, I don't think anyone is going to forget when he tried to take a picture in front of the western wall and said he was doing it for re-election. The Liberals should take this back.
15 03 22 Mrz
I think this will be a close one but Harpers popularity with the Jewish community might give Mark Adler the edge to hold the seat.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
It was a very shameful day when Ken Dryden lost to Mark Adler, a know-nothing do-nothing Conservative paper candidate who no one expected to win - and probably didn't, except for the #RoboCon in 2011 where 'Michael Sona did not act alone'. In any case it exiled Ken from politics and now the Liberals are running Michael Levitt, from the Zionist wing (a National co-chair of Liberal Friends of Israel). He 'consulted on economic environmental policy for the World Bank, and the Governments of Ontario and Canada' he claims, though why that should be a credential it's hard to say. His primary claim to fame seems to be working on Liberal campaigns.
Basically a race between backbenchers of no particular profile or note.
Thus it will swing entirely as does the national campaign, meaning it's a dead heat.
Who can predict people who ditch Ken Dryden for these kinds of losers?

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