Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Kildonan-St. Paul

Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 13:07:30

Constituency Profile


Bell, Jim

Hiebert, Eduard Walter

Hrynyk, Suzanne

Mihychuk, MaryAnn

Reimer, David

Stairs, Steven

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3480.95%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Kildonan-St. Paul
   (180/180 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joy Smith


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15 09 24 Don't Trust Polls
Just to be clear, the Liberal candidate did not withdraw in 2011, but it was a Liberal candidate booted out (and later suing the LPC and some Jewish organizations for seeking to unjustly ruin her reputation) in 2008. I think it's a 3-way race, and Liberals dipped deep down in 2011 because Ignatieff was so unpopular. A Liberal nearly took it the first time it existed, in 2004. And NDP candidate was second the next time, in 2006 both well-known, the latter now a city councilor and the Liberal trying yet again in Winnipeg South.
15 08 01 A.S.
In the present, as-of-writing circumstance, for K-StP to be EPP's only remaining Con prediction for Winnipeg seems a bit 'off', particularly given Mihychuk's profile and Browaty's non-candidacy. None of it means the Cons *can't* win it; just, why this one of the whole lot? (Besides, if it's about using projected 2011 figures, keep in mind that the Grit share that year was artificially low due to K-StP's Grit candidate withdrawing.)
15 04 13 Dr Bear
I've reevaluated my earlier prediction and I think the CPC will hold this riding. It looks like city councilor Jeff Browaty will run for the CPC. With his name recognition and the right-leaning slant of this riding, I think they will keep it. It will be a close race though and the Liberals will have to pull out all the stops to take this one. I would not be surprised if it turned red in October but my money is on the blue team (for now).
15 03 26 Locksley
With no CPC candidate and a strong, former NDP MLA in MaryAnn Mihychuk perhaps the Liberals are in spitting distance? That said I am not so sure, be curious to see which candidate picks up the blue flag here.
15 03 25 BJ
This riding has become much more conservative with the development of East St Paul. Plus, the CPC candidate may be popular city councillor Browaty. Easy CPC hold.
15 03 25 JC
At First glance this should be a Tory hold and it probably would have been if Joy Smith had not decided to retire. The Liberals have a strong candidate here in MaryAnn Mihychuk who served as a Cabinet Minister in the more popular Doer NDP Government and with the Liberals on the upswing in Manitoba it's not out of the realm of possibility they can take this riding.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
An open seat which, in previous election-prediction-go-rounds, always seemed to offer hope for the Liberals, and even the NDP, but went to Joy Smith in the end. Without Smith, I'm reluctant to call it this early. If CPC support wanes then it'll be a close race. If they regain support, the Conservatives will keep it. TCTC.

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