Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Calgary Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:23:28

Constituency Profile


Boonlert, Thana

Crockatt, Joan

Hehr, Kent

Henderson, Yogi

Ratti, Jillian

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 80.02%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Calgary Centre
   (205/212 polls, 96.70% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joan Crockatt

   Calgary East
   (7/212 polls, 3.30% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Deepak Obhrai


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15 10 17 South Islander
Liberals are trending upwards in Alberta and have reached about 30%. At those levels and with a concentration of support int he cities, they are going to have to win a few seats in Edmonton and Calgary. This has to be one of them. Hehr is much stronger than Crockatt and has won election as a provincial Liberal. Latest poll has him ahead by 1, but the Liberals continue to rise in Alberta at the expense of the NDP.
15 10 17 poljunkiebc
Have to have to figure the Libs will get more than one seat in Alberta, and if so, this would likely be the place. By all accounts a tight racr, and actual turnout (which increases the older vote), may prove me wrong. But an LPC call in Calgary.
15 10 17 Marco Ricci
It's interesting that this remains as close a race as ever as we reach the very end of the campaign.
I guess the question is whether:
1) the close numbers are accurate about predicting the Liberals have a shot
2) can the normal Conservative advantage in Calgary hold off the challenge by Kent Hehr
3) is it true that Mainsteet overestimates Conservative support in its polling?
It's somewhat surprising that Crockatt, who is considered one of the weakest MPs in the House, is still so competitive, but it also shows the challenge that the Liberals (& NDP) still face in Alberta. This remains Conservative country federally, and there will only be a few opportunities like this one for Opposition party breakthroughs. There won't be any danger of a Conservative wipeout of the scale that happened provincially.
It really comes down to whether there are any polling changes in the final days, and whether the Hehr or Crockatt voters are more motivated to come out.
15 10 17 Marco Ricci
Calgary Centre - Mainstreet poll
Decided & Leaning:
LPC - 38
CPC - 37
NDP - 19
All Voters:
LPC - 31
CPC - 31
NDP - 16
15 10 17 DSR
If you believe in yard signs as a predictor of elections here's one for you - http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/can-you-read-the-signs-to-tell-who-will-win-political-study-aims-to-find-out
For what it may or may not be worth: Hehr 1,191, Crockatt 791, Ratti 60, Greens 26.
15 10 16 Jeff S
Mainstreet poll has LPC 38 CPC 37 NDP 19 GRN 6. If enough strategic voters switch to red, LPC will carry this.
15 10 15 SaskPhoenix
The polls are showing the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by winnable margins - ThreeHundredEight shows the Liberals a good 12.1% boost over the Conservatives. At this stage of the election, Conservative MP Joan Crockatt has croaked her last breath in her political life and come Tuesday morning, Kent Hehr will be the new Liberal MP for Calgary Centre.
15 10 16 CalgaryDad
This seat is too close to call and we won't know until election night but I will give the edge to Crockatt because in a race this tight, the Conservatives are more likely to be able to mobilize their base and get the vote out. If NDP support sinks and strategically votes for Hehr, he will win, even if a small number move over. But I think Crockatt will take it in a squeaker. Still a total coin flip though.
15 10 16 DSR
Mainstreet research poll (15/10/13) Lib 39%, Con 38%, NDP 19%. Remains TCTC.
15 10 16 Monkey Cheese
A Mainstreet poll has the Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck. Hehr is at 38% and Crockatt at 37%. The NDP are at 19% and the Greens are at 6%. I think that this can probably be called for the Liberals. Hehr has been hard working and campaigning hard while Croackatt has been fairly invisible. The Liberals are polling well above their Alberta numbers from last time and the Conservatives have been polling below their previous numbers. This will be close and with weaker Green numbers (from the by-election), the Liberals should eke out a win.
15 10 04 John
The fly in the ointment for the NDP comes from the provincial government. Provincially, the NDP is committed to a royalty review and Calgary is the oil capital of Canada.
The question is whether or not the Liberals could pick up enough support to unseat the Conservatives in this riding.
While many voters will remember Pierre Elliot Trudeau and the National Energy Program (NEP), that is now far enough in the past that it won't be the same bogeyman it used to be. In fact, a lot of younger voters today weren't even born back in the days of the NEP.
15 09 30 J. Ying
When Kent Hehr became the Liberal candidate for Calgary Centre, I said to myself that it would be an upset if he was NOT elected. In Canada's most conservative major city, that my constitute crazy talk, but Kent Hehr is an exceptionally strong candidate. In conversing with others who have little or no interest in politics, even they know who Kent Hehr is. One of the most recognizable Calgarians, I don't recall attending a community even in the riding (e.g. Marda Gras, the Lilac Festival, Calgary Folk Festival...) where Kent wasn't in attendance, making jovial banter with all those around him. He was elected and reelected as an MLA in Calgary Buffalo (a provincial riding that is overlapped by Calgary Centre) for the provincial Liberals while their province-wide support was dropping like a stone. Incumbent Joan Crockatt has done things to rankle some of her constituents (such as the controversy that lead to her pulling out of this year's Calgary Pride parade -- the first time she has ever planned on attending). Chris Turner (a well known author) is not running for the Greens this time, and the riding encompasses some of the most affluent neighborhoods in Calgary (e.g. Brittania, Elboya, Elbow Park) so I don't think that vote splitting will come into play (as it did in the 2012 by election when Joan initially won this seat). I'm expecting the Liberals to pick up this seat by at least 5%, largely due to the strength of the candidate they're running.
15 09 29 A.S.
Count me in with those who felt that EPP's original Environics-spurred Con call was premature--like, call *this* and you might as well call *everything* in Calgary Con, yes even Skyview. Though not that that might not, indeed, be the outcome in the end (yes eaven Skyview). Ah, nothing like Joan Crockatt to keep up the Rob Anders tradition of bamboozling outsiders: 'how does Calgary keep electing these Decomposing Dog Conservatives', etc etc...
15 09 15 Marco Ricci
Canadian Election Atlas, I'd be cautious about making conclusions on a by-election that was held 3 years ago. That's a lifetime in politics. The Calgary Centre by-election was at a time when the Liberals were a distant 3rd in the polls before Justin Trudeau became leader. They have much better numbers now than they did then.
Timm, I'm not sure what you mean when you say that Trudeau is a negative and that people will hold their nose and vote for Hehr. While Hehr has name recognition and is respected from his time as an MNA, it's actually because of Justin Trudeau that he has a shot. Trudeau has raised the Liberal numbers during this campaign (see the latest polls) and so although Hehr has his own strengths, he can't win this on his own. Trudeau's good approval ratings are giving him an opening that probably wouldn't be there if he was running under a less popular Liberal leader.
15 09 12 Canadian Election Atlas
If the Liberals couldn't win this seat in the by-election, where the poured all possible resources into winning it, then they're not going to win it in the general. Hehr only represented the downtown part of this riding. Outside of downtown Calgary is Conservative country.
15 09 07 Timm
This riding will go Liberal only because of the strength of the local Liberal candidate. Many people are going to 'hold their nose', ignore Trudeau's stupidity, and support Mr. Hehr because he will be a good voice in Ottawa.
15 09 04 Teddy Boragina
This riding has no business being listed as solidly Conservative.
First off, lets go over the history of this riding. In 2011, the combined 'progressive' vote was around 43%. In 2008, it was around 44%. In 2006, it was around 44%. In 2004 it was around 49%.
In 2000, much of that 'progressive' vote went to Joe Clark, who won with 46% of the vote.
In short, the 'progressive' vote in this riding is very, very fluid. They are willing to switch parties if needed.
Now lets look at Kent Hehr, the Liberal candidate. He won in 2008 (his provincial riding, within this federal riding) with 49% of the vote. In the next election, despite the Liberals (provincially) losing more than half their vote, he managed to be re-elected with 42%. He is locally popular, and this is just part of that proof.
Facing him is a Conservative MP who has managed to get herself into quite a few mini scandals, including one this past month.
One thing Albertans learned in Calgary in particular was that by moving your vote from the Liberals to the NDP, you can actually defeat a Tory in Calgary. This is one riding where voting Liberal will defeat the incumbent, and it's quite likely this will be done.
I am not as 'certain' about that as I am about Skyview, but at this time, the Liberals have the clear edge here.
15 08 26 Marco Ricci
Why did this site change the call to Conservative? Was that just based on the Environics riding poll? Yes it showed a Conservative lead, but considering the unreliability of some riding polls, and the fact that it is only August and Conservative support is down substantially from 2011, it is too early to make a call.
Btw, 308 now shows Calgary Centre back in the narrowly Liberal column with a 50% chance of a win: (August 25, 2015)
15 08 25 CGD
One of the 3 ridings that should be going Liberal this time around, a reflection of shifting trends in Alberta that will definitely be seen also in Calgary Skyview & Edmonton Centre.
15 08 21 SaskPhoenix
ThreeHundredEight has updated its projection and it shows that the Tories are projected 50% chance of winning Calgary-Centre, essentially at a tie with the Liberals. To call it for the Tories with two months to go is premature.
Best to stick with TCTC until the data polling solidifies later in the campaign, when we'd get a better sense of the mood and pulse of voters.
15 08 24 BC predictor
CPC call already? Usually this site makes the mistake of underestimating CPC support levels in suburban ridings but in this case its doing the opposite. Since the tight by-election the boundaries of the riding have shed cpc friendly polls and picked up progressive friendly polls. Factor in the strong Liberal candidate and this is definitely the tightest race in Calgary. CPC still have the edge IMO but it's a 5% margin win either way so TCTC for now
15 08 20 Garth
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the Conservatives with a 12% over the Liberals in this riding. The NDP is a distant third.
15 08 21 Balon
According to mid-August Environs poll for Leadnow in this riding, the Cons seem well ahead: CPC 44%, LPC 32%, NDP 17%, Green 7%.
15 08 18 R.O.
The by election here was very close and of the Calgary ridings maybe one that is most competitive but still a riding that has voted conservative in recent elections . both Joan Crockett and Kent Hehr have some political experience and well known in the riding . however the provincial races in Calgary maybe have had a different dynamic than federal races and allowed ndp and liberals to have more success at that level. Its likely a riding that is too close to call and a race that will play out more as campaign drags on.
15 08 07 PY
Well, say what you will about Bourque Newswatch, which I admit to visiting on a lark, but someone managed to contribute to the 'Heard at Hy's' section and it looks like on this, the first week of this elongated campaign, Calgary Centre could be declared already.
Enough said? I'm not really sure, but it's hard to dismiss the kind of momentum Kent Hehr seems to be having.
(Full disclosure: I've never been to a Hy's, though I've often heard about their cheese toast.)
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
The NDP have no chance in this riding and it looks less and less likely that the Conservatives do either. Crockatt is an unpopular MP and often creates controversial gaffes. Her latest one was offensive comments relating to equal pay for women. The current riding polls have the Liberals winning here. If you follow the polls as closely as I do, you know that the Conservatives have a good amount of ground to cover if they want to keep this, especially with the Green and some NDP vote likely to switch over to the Liberals to help keep out a controversial and unpopular MP.
15 07 30 John
Conservative incumbent, Laurie Hawn, isn't running. So none of the candidates have incumbency advantage. But I think I saw some Conservative advertising from the Conservative candidate. So the Conservatives are already on the campaign trail.
Before Laurie Hawn won the riding for the Conservatives, it belonged to Liberal Anne MacLellan. Also, one of the corresponding provincial ridings was a long time Liberal stronghold represented by Laurie Blakeman. The Liberal candidate has already knocked on my door. So they are putting some work into winning this riding.
In the recent provincial election, the all the corresponding provincial ridings went NDP. The provincial election is recent enough that the local NDP is still enjoying a honeymoon with the voters. And I understand there is a surge in support for the federal NDP.
If the writ is dropped on Sunday, a long election campaign will favour parties with deep pockets because radio, TV and newspaper advertising costs money. So I rule out parties like the Greens taking the riding.
At the moment, I am wavering between 'too close to call' and an NDP win.
15 07 29 Monkey Cheese
Kent Heher is an incredibly popular former MLA who has a knack for political survival. Joan Crockett on the other hand is deeply unpopular and seems to create a controversy every time she opens her mouth and takes to social media. The Alberta election of 2015 has shown that Conservatives can be defeated in Alberta and an unpopular backbencher isn't enough for the Conservatives to win here.
15 07 25 Victor from Calgary
Last election the Liberals were a thousand votes short here, this time a popular local MLA is running, and that one MLA has been running hard for a year and a half. Versus a deeply unpopular MP I expect Mr. Kent Hehr to win this riding.
The NDP do not have a base in Calgary Centre as their previous federal result had them at 3.85%. However, with there no longer being Chris Turner on the ballot -- a very popular author and Green candidate in the 2012 byelection -- I can readily expect the NDP to increase their vote share from four percent to becoming a spoiler in the general election later this year.
The strategic vote is obviously Hehr's but with a larger NDP grow in support neither could win and deliver a Conservative. The one thing I am absolutely sure of is that Hehr was able to win in 2008 -- the only provincial liberal newly elected that election -- and won again in 2012 against the anti-Wildrose wave. He would have likely survived the bloodbath of the 2015 Alberta election, showcasing his ability to survive.
My money is on him surviving this and winning the seat for the Liberals in Calgary Centre.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Crockatt will have a hard time being re-elected. Most of the Green support from the 2012 by-election will probably go Liberal. Popular former MLA Kent Hehr is the LPC candidate, and he will likely win.
15 07 03 DarkFlare
Dare I say it...oh I think I did. I'm predicting a three way battle that may end up NDP.
I know i'm not from Calgary, but I know some people that live there and have become fascinated by the potential of this riding for a while now. (it's going to make for an awesome battleground) In the last by-election, there was some seriously impressive polling numbers by the NDP (although it didn't play out at typically few voters show up to by elections, with right leaning voters more likely to show up.)
But we really have to look at the election just this year in Alberta. I think everyone was SHOCKED when they saw Alberta go orange including in Calgary. (9/12 Central Calgary ridings went NDP) and I know provincial and federal politics don't always match up but i think it's too early to write this very urban riding off as another Lib/Tory matchup. Voters that are tired of harper, and listening to the 'Trudeau isn't ready' ads could turn to the NDP as an alternative. They wanted change before, they might want it again.
15 07 01 seasaw
Let's not read too much into the byelection results here. Byelections are usually a time for voters to cast a protest vote and remember, at the time of the byelection, Justin Trudeau was at the height of his popularity and the Liberals still didn't pick up this riding. His election platform is rather controvertial and may not win him much support here, in short, Conservative hold.
15 05 17 Durham Guy
With the Conservatives slipping in Alberta, a backbench MP who has done nothing since getting elected, and a strong candidate in Kent Hehr, this is a riding the Liberals will take. Threehundedeight has the Liberals with a 86% chance of winning. Put all those factors in and the Liberals should be able to win this one.
15 04 26 Docere
As the 2012 by-election showed, voters here are trending away from voting like Albertans and more like urban voters. The Liberals have a high profile candidate here and this will be an interesting race to watch.
15 03 29 monkey
While many are suggesting this will go Liberal, I would still give the Tories the edge. The Liberals are currently polling at 20-25% in Alberta which is comparable to what they got in the 90s while the Tories are down in the 50s which is comparable to what the Reform/Alliance got. If you apply a uniform swing, this would go Liberal, but many forget that in Edmonton, its far less conservative friendly and most of the anti-conservative vote their will easily swing between the Liberals and NDP voting for whichever is seen as most likely to knock off the Tories. By contrast in Calgary, the Tories have a much more solid base. While this area vote Liberal provincially, their support is largely in the downtown core with the southern parts being quite conservative. Also while Joan Crockett struggled, she had the issue of being a WRA so many provincial PCs wouldn't support her. By contrast the feud between the WRA and PCs is over as most WRA have come back to the PCs.
15 03 22 Fairview Resident
The Conservatives barely held this riding in a byelection due to a vote split between the Liberals and Greens (37/33/26). Since she became MP, Crockatt has become best known for her partisanship and political tone deafness, but she has secured the nomination for the general election. Kent Hehr, incumbent MLA, has positioned himself as the clear alternative to Crockatt. The Liberals are well behind the Tories in Alberta, but not so far behind that they don't win a few ridings. This will be one of them.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Previously Calgary would have been considered easy incumbent Con holds, but things are changing. Crockatt is deeply disliked personally and even many Cons held their nose to vote for her, having served as spokesthing for Harper on CBC and being singularly effective at marshalling hatred against her own position. She's never achieved anything at all as an MP, and votes and quacks the straight Harper line, thus is a perfect target for a star candidate to unseat.
In some ways Liberal Kent Hehr is a star, being a crime victim, and as a quadriplegic, likely to evoke some profoundly evil statement from Crockatt, not known for her intelligence or sensitivity. As a former Calgary Mayor candidate who pulled out to endorse Naheed Nenshi, he might get some support from the Nenshi organization (which in byelections has helped out the Greens but don't have the star candidate they used to have this time).
He'd be a better MP, that's sure. Would the NDP or Green candidate be strong enough to split votes, or subdued and generally uniting against the Conservative with a mutual admiration society? Hard to call in Calgary.
Unless Nenshi himself picks a party and runs, this one can still go Con.
Even for Crockatt, who is neither a journalist nor an MP, just a sort of placeholder.

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