Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

St. Albert-Edmonton

Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 00:42:52

Constituency Profile


Cooper, Michael

Ghettuba, Beatrice

Malayko, Darlene

Oldham, Andrea

Rathgeber, Brent

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Edmonton-St. Albert
   (191/196 polls, 99.90% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Brent Rathgeber

   Westlock-St. Paul
   (5/196 polls, 0.10% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Brian Storseth


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15 10 17 Marco Ricci
I agree that this riding will probably go Conservative.
In order for Rathgeber to win, he really needed the Opposition vote to coalesce behind him. But with the NDP & Liberals running their own candidates, it's harder for that to happen. If the NDP & Lib voters had got behind Rathgeber the way they did for Bill Casey in Nova Scotia in 2008 or for Joe Clark in Calgary Centre in 2000, Rathgeber could have won this.
15 10 16
Mainstreet October 13th:
Con 43
Rathgeber 28
NDP 20
No longer TCTC in my opinion
15 10 05 Dave
A vote for the Independent candidate is regarded as a anyone but Harper vote. Rathgerber is highly regarded and received a positive review in the Edmonton Journal.
15 09 30 JRW
This riding is most probably no longer TCTC. Way past time for a prediction change, and yes many good men and women have run and lost as independents.
15 09 29 A.S.
Well, if Rathgeber is more spoiler than victor, it'd still be interesting to see CPC potentially under 40% here--potentially their lowest sitting-seat share in Edmonton (yes, including Griesbach)? Or even in all of Alberta? Or, for that matter, a who'll-do-better battle among Edmonton indys: Rathgeber vs Jimmy Ford...
15 09 25 Woodworth
Alberta Federation of Labour [edited] poll still showed CPC with a large lead in this riding. Looks like Rathgeber is just hurting and splitting the anti-CPC vote. Cooper is safe.
15 09 27
New poll by Forum for this riding: Conservatives 38 Rathgeber 29 NDP 19 (Liberals not mentioned in the article)
15 09 23 Lolitha
Riding Specific poll by Environics (sept 15-17) Conservatives 39 Independent 22 NDP 20 Liberals 15
Doesn't look likely that Conservative vote splitting will be enough to put another party into first.
15 09 12 Canadian Election Atlas
Independent MPs very rarely win re-election, unless they are very, very popular, and the party he or she leaves is not. While one can argue the Conservatives aren't that popular this election, they are still polling very highly in Alberta. And is Rathgeber popular enough to win this on his own? I'd say not.
15 09 03 CGD
Going out on a limb here and saying Rathgeber will take this one. There's enough Tory vote in this riding to split with the Conservative candidate and still win. No risk of a vote splitting win by the NDP/Liberals.
15 09 02 Balon
Usually, it's really hard to use polls to predict an independent's chances of success unless someone decides to do a riding-specific poll. But I notice that among those national polls that include regional numbers for 'other/independant', most regions show about 1%, while Quebec shows about 1.5% (Force et Democratie, presumably), and Alberta shows about 2.5%. Assuming that this uptick is mostly for Mr. Rathgeber (I don't know of any other prominent independent candidates in the province) and that Alberta has 34 seats, that would indicate that Mr. Rathgeber is hanging on to about 50% support. I guess his message about accountability and transparency resonates in his riding more than traditional party allegiance?
15 08 26 Jeff S
With new Insights West poll showing Conservatives at 58% in the province, have to pick the Cons to win this.
15 08 23 Terry The Canadian
Watch vote splitting with Indp. Candidate and current MP Brent Rathgeber give this seat to the NDP.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
It looks like the NDP are surprisingly competitive in this riding and are taking advantage of the vote splitting between the Conservatives and independent MP Brent Rethenburger. This has the potential for a surprise NDP pickup and I wouldn't discount it. Right now the numbers are currently favouring the Conservatives, but barely. This is TCTC for now.
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
It's too bad that Rathgeber isn't polling a strongly here. He is a good constituency MP and a hard worker with integrity. He would be a strong voice for this riding unlike the Conservative candidate who is undoubtedly heading to the backbenches if he wins.
I'm not ready to call this one just yet as the NDP are proving to be competitive here. The Conservatives have the advantage, but I think that 'Durham Guy', might be right that the NDP can take advantage of the vote splitting on the right, especially if the Conservatives continue to lose support in Alberta.
15 08 03 R.O.
This has been a fairly reliable conservative riding federally however conservative mp Brent Rathegeber left to sit as in independent and running for re election. Its generally tough for an independent candidate to get back in once they lose party nomination. But he might have a chance in this riding as conservative candidate not really that high profile and he has represented this area for a while federally and provincially. Unless like an odd vote split gives ndp or liberals a chance here but that still seems unlikely .
15 08 02 John
While Brent Rathgeber is the incumbent, the deck is generally stacked against the independent candidate. The Conservatives took this riding with a large enough margin last election that I think they will hold this one, though perhaps with a smaller margin.
15 05 17 Durham Guy
The big question here is if the people of this riding want a MP who will work for them, or someone who will be another trained seal in the backbenches. Brent Rathenburger is one of the few Conservatives with any shreds of integrity and decency and it would be a shame to see him go.
Here are the three most likely outcomes.
1 - The Conservatives take this, with Rathenburger finishing in a very strong second.
2 - Rathenburger wins, as the ABC movement rallies behind him to keep the Cons shut out here.
3 - Vote splitting on the right allows whoever is in third place, probably the NDP, to sneak up the middle.
15 03 29 monkey
While I think the Tories will probably hold this, I could see his being an interesting race. Also if many Liberal/NDP voters decide to throw their support behind Brent Rathenburger he may win this while the NDP and Liberals don't stand a chance here.
15 03 24 JC
This is going to be an interesting race, There's a possibility NDP and Liberal voters may get behind Rathgeber in an attempt to deny the Tories a seat. Not only that but Rathgeber I assume is still pretty personally popular here.

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