Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Yellowhead


Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:02:05
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Eglinski, Jim

Kuzminski, Ken

Lystang, Cory

Maguhn, Ryan

Wolf Lange, Sandra


Population/populations
(2011 census)

98855


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

3123878.07%
515412.88%
11582.89%
21355.34%
Other 3280.82%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Yellowhead
   (166/230 polls, 73.24% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Jim Eglinski
21157
4156
879
1627
Other317


   Wetaskiwin
   (50/230 polls, 22.48% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Blaine Calkins
8409
846
225
407


   Wild Rose
   (14/230 polls, 4.28% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Blake Richards
1672
152
54
101
Other11



 


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15 07 25 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Re Jasper and 'Confused this year''s perplexment: let me report that on E-day in 2011, the CPC total in the polls labelled 'Jasper' only surpassed the NDP total by *one vote* (35% apiece; Green 22%, Lib 6%). And if that's not enough. on federal byelection E-day in 2014, the Liberals swept said Jasper polls with 56%, leaving CPC below 20% and third behind the NDP! Only a pinprick, of course--though in the present post-Notley climate, I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP's poll-winning reach extends inward to resource towns like Edson, Hinton, etc. Just a few more pinprick holes; not enough to bust the Yellowhead Conservative balloon (at least for now)
15 04 06 Confused this year
174.3.128.116
There are always comments during elections on how Jasper is the only polls that won't/don't vote Tory. Just for the record...most of the polls in Jasper for the last number of elections have gone for the Conservatives (I live in Jasper...)
15 03 29 monkey
174.114.31.13
The tories will likely lose most of the Jasper polls which is less than 5% of the riding, but win big everywhere else. The interesting thing is everytime the Tories get over 70% in this riding, they win nationally while when they get under 70% they usually lose nationally.
15 03 25 Dr Bear
174.89.199.19
There's an election going on? Does it matter? Conservative hold.
15 03 23 JW
99.232.118.35
While a selected few (very few, if any) ridings in Edmonton or even Calgary may end up being competitive at some point of the campaign, rural Alberta will continue to be solid Conservative territory. Remember, the last time rural Alberta returned a non-Conservative/PC/Reform/Alliance MP was 1968 (two that election, and one of them started with the Social Credits).



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