Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Burnaby North-Seymour

Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:33:19

Constituency Profile


Baird Ellan, Carol

Beech, Terry

Chang, Helen Hee Soon

Jantzen, Brent

Little, Mike

Quarmby, Lynne

Sproule, Brian

Tylor, Chris

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4381.01%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (137/188 polls, 75.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Kennedy Stewart

   North Vancouver
   (51/188 polls, 24.97% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Andrew Saxton


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15 10 17 Marco Ricci
Craig Hubley, it also turns out that Senior NDP Mulcair strategist Brad Lavigne was an oil lobbyist until a few weeks ago, so both parties are now getting criticized for lobbying allegations. Hard to know whether it will have a big difference, but it could move a few votes around.
Mainstreet seems to be predicting a vote split here which favours the Conservatives. Will be interesting to see on Election Night how many Opposition vote splits there are as it will be one of the big topics for Election Night discussion:
Decided & Leaning:
CPC - 38%
LPC - 27%
NDP - 26%
All Voters:
CPC - 33%
LPC - 24%
NDP - 23%
15 10 16 Jeff S
Ah, now I see the rationale. Mainstreet poll has CPC up.
15 10 15 South Islander
I'm sure the Tory call is based on the one poll that showed Little ahead. Given 3 polls showing the NDP ahead and Tory decline, I think that poll might have been an outlier.
15 10 16 Craig Hubley
Not buying the Con call but I'll withdraw my NDP call to TCTC. A riding this close with VoteTogether.ca calling it NDP, and NDP bouncing back thanks to TransCanada having a lobbyist in Trudeau's campaign, and fear of a Trudeau majority that will kill any shot at true proportional representation... I think the progressive vote gets behind the NDP one way or another.
15 10 15 Conservative Pundit
An Insights West poll conducted on October 10 with 400 adult residents of this riding show support as 29% NDP, 27% Conservative, 17% Liberal and 19% undecided. A very narrow margin for the NDP but I'd give it to them anyway.
15 10 15 marriedtothemob@hotmail.com
A recent riding poll here shows the Tories with a clear lead and unless the left gets its act together, Little will be the beneficiary of a split. http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-riding-polls/
15 10 14 poljunkiebc
A very narrow Liberal win here is likely. This is a riding that has parts of previous ridings which have elected from NDP, CPC and LPC. The current late surge of Liberal support in BC will be just enough to put them over the top here, by a margin of only a few %.
15 10 13 BC predictor
The 2011 CPC vote here likely includes far more former liberal voters than seats like south surrey and Delta. With the LPC up in polls and the CPC down its seats like those on the north shore where we'll see the swing. LPC win around 40% of the vote
15 10 07 Craig Hubley
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency shows the riding polling still NDP ahead. Greens may attract Liberal votes trying to dislodge the NDP from a near monopoly on coastal ridings, but they won't attract core NDP votes in a race with this kind of stakes.
The Green Party knows it will keep growing in BC especially once the threat of electing coastal Conservatives is gone. It will be focusing effort on creating new regions for growth with breakthrough MPs esp in Guelph if they can buck the Liberal tide there, and growing in Victoria where there is no Con threat to scare voters back into voting for NDP.
But this time, this one goes orange, and that's the last Con off the coast.
15 10 07 aodhan
If you look at polling averages anywhere which are listed by riding, the Liberals and Terry Beech have pulled ahead significantly and continue to have the momentum. Most recent polling averages from the Toronto Star have the Liberals in this riding at 33.8%, significantly higher than the NDP or CPC (29.4% and 28.8%, respectively), and throughout this campaign Beech's numbers have seen a consistent and measured incline.
15 10 06 A.S.
In creating this riding with that big segment of North Van, it's almost like Elections Canada was trolling the NDP. And now with the rise (and apparent visibility) of the Liberals, it might as well be a microcosmic version of *all* BC polls--some days Blue, some days Red, some days Orange, and who knows where the Greens stand relative to the rest. (Compounding the troll is that *none* of the fed NDP's existing Burnabyland trio are running here--that is, a defeat will mean little more than bruised ego for the Mayor Corrigan crowd.)
15 10 05 Spic
Mike Little is definitely NOT a homophobic fundamentalist social conservative. Where on earth does this nonsense come from?
15 10 01 Craig Hubley
My prediction hasn't changed, this is still too close to call due to the Green wild card and recent Conservative recovery in BC. However, this riding will be less affected by the latter because the candidate is a staunch social conservative unable to attract crossover votes from Liberal leaning voters, as others pointed out in this thread. Also, Rachel Notley has recently softened her pro-pipeline stance, if only as a campaign trick to get Green leaning voters to feel more comfortable voting NDP in BC, as I am sure she was literally begged to do by Thomas Mulcair and the BC NDP.
However, I honestly do not believe that BC coastal Greens trust the NDP and its unified federal-provincial organization to stand up against a new NDP Premier in an oil exporting province who will have to prove herself to the usual Tar Sands suspects. Alberta will not change its economy so fast that it will cease to pressure BC for access to its coastline for bitumen.
The Green candidate isn't backing down and explains why in her essay for The Tyee http://www.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/09/28/Quarmby-Wont-Step-Down/
I personally don't think she will win because there are still far more attractive donation, volunteer and vote swap targets for the Greens - Guelph and Fredericton for instance in the east where the Greens hope to create the same regional breakthrough effect as they have achieved in BC.
However it's enough of a wild card that this remains an NDP vs. Con tossup with a very small chance of organized Green vote swaps going viral in the last week and turning it. This will be too close to call until Oct. 19th.
15 09 28 BC predictor
This is a seat where a lot of CPC voters in 2011 were likely former LPC voters. This is a riding that is going to show a greater swing away from the tories than the provincial average so I see this as a 3 way race with the tories having the worst odds
15 09 24 Milo
I believe the NDP Candidate Baird-Ellan will carry the day, as her credentials may be enough for the new North Van sections of the created riding to at the very least have large gains for the NDP even if they are not the winner of the North Van side. The Burnaby side is also pretty split, but I believe the favourite here must be the New Democrats, with stern challenges from the Conservatives and Liberals as well this being one of the Greens top 10 or top 20 ridings nationwide for support. THe last few campaigns the results for the old Burnaby-Douglas have been razor thin- 2011 (NDP 21k v.CON 20k) 2008 (NDP 17.9k v. CON 17.1k) 2006 (NDP 17.3k LIB 16.0k CON 13.5k) So this will be a top riding to watch on election night
15 09 23 R.O.
I came across a poll for this riding on insights west polling page , it's a small poll of 300 riding residents . there numbers 28 ndp , 25 cpc , 16 lib ,7 green , 24 % undecided . so it appears to be a close ndp/conservative race in this riding .
15 09 12 NVcrash
I grew up in this riding [Seymour]and presently live in the riding next to it [North Van]. The conservative is a homophobic fundamentalist and this is the kind of ideology that REALLY turns off the folks in North Burnaby. Furthermore the fact that the Tories are running hard on crime attack adds, in a riding with a very low crime rate, shows that they are desperate to find some traction. The NDP candidate is a judge and has a great resume, and unlike the conservative, was not born into money. NDP pickup.
15 09 13 Nick M.
Please follow my logic. NDP needs a strong ground game to win ridings. It historically couldn't win a riding on the Air War alone.
Conservative will lose 10 to 15 percent of the vote everyone else. That is a given.
The NDP never had a ground game in the North Van area last time, hence they could have done twice as well as they did, had a strong ground game been established. They will have this time around.
People who vote Liberal last election, would not swing to CPC this time. The swing CPC-Liberal voter, voted CPC last time, so there are no more votes to lose to CPC. So many liberal-NDP swing voters will in North Van will vote NDP, now that Liberals will likely finish 3rd.
15 09 09 R.O.
This is a new riding that includes parts of North Vancouver and old Burnaby Douglas riding. Its tough to get a feel for as this riding has never existed before in its current form and a mix of 2 very different ridings. Its also open and all 3 candidates running have not ran federally before. Had it existed in 2011 it would of went conservative. Mike Little is the new conservative candidate , Carol Baird Ellan is new ndp candidate and Terry Beech new liberal candidate. There is also a lot of polls coming out of bc , some show ndp way ahead and others closer race like yesterdays Ipsos poll for bc , 37 ndp , 31 lib and 28 cpc. Those numbers would indicate bc still remains a close race and many ridings still competitive
15 09 07 Marco Ricci
With NDP numbers beginning to level off a bit in British Columbia, sites like 308 now show the Liberals competitive here again.
(53% chance of Liberal win - September 6, 2015)
15 08 24 BC predictor
With current poll numbers it's hard to predict a CPC win however provincial breakdowns (and polls in general in BC) are notoriously unreliable so it's premature to say NDP win here.
With over 19k votes last time and a strong green campaign it's asinine to rule out the CPC so early
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
My call hasn't changed but my reasons have. The Greens are pushing hard their clear stance against Kinder Morgan while the NDP has softened on it due to Rachel Notley's win in Alberta and NDP unified federal-provincial membership. [One of many examples of that unified membership causing very serious governing problems for the NDP. Another was the Ontario NDP kicking out Buzz Hargrove for endorsing the Martin minority.].
These are dangerous seats for the left to squabble over because they still have a strong Conservative vote. A more even Green-vs-NDP split here and also in Esquimault could elect a Conservative in either place. That's very different from Guelph or Victoria which are essentially ABC ridings.
With their best Green prospect being Yukon, some Greens picking fights with the NDP in Victoria, and Elizabeth May still having to hold her own seat, a strong Green focus on two other coastal BC seats seems unlikely. So too does the NDP giving it up. Low information Liberal voters may interpret a debate 'win' by Trudeau reported in BC as a reason to vote Liberal, also, even though it's irrational in this riding. There are still some Liberals that think the BC Liberals aren't the future of the Liberal party, and those confused folks could well swing this seat Con.
15 08 05 Matthew
I think the NDP call here is a bit premature. Yes, there was the one riding poll from back in May but I don't think that should be taken as the final word. The North Shore part of this riding is quite conservative and Conservative support seems to have stabilized a bit in the province. Too close to call between NDP and CPC.
15 06 05 Griffin
19% and second place for the Greens shows some huge momentum for them. And with this star candidate and a likely Green surge in the whole region, I see this as a likely upset. Certainly not a 'safe hold' for the NDP. On the ground and in terms of recruiting volunteers, the Greens are unparalleled and this is no doubt one they will be targeting.
15 05 31 Laurence Putnam
Mike Little has strong name rec as a long-time District councillor going back about 10 years now. And North Burnaby is quite a tony area these days too. The NDP winning the riding is ludicrous. They will appear stronger than they really are because indeed a traditional core of Burnaby voters will skew results higher, but they'll only get votes in the low teens in the North Van portion. People forget that prior to 1993, Burnaby-North Vancouver routinely shared a riding, when back then the Eastern portion of North Van was much more working class. These days, forget it. Not quite a three-way race, sort of a 'two and a half race' with the Conservatives likely to win with around 40%....just the way they always used to.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
A recent Insights West poll has the NDP at 35%, Greens 19%, Cons 15%, and Liberals at 6%. Considering those numbers and the riding's voting history, I see no reason why the NDP won't retain this riding. Safe NDP hold.
15 04 30 Gillian
As the majority of the riding is use to voting NDP for the past few decades (Svend Robinson, Bill Siksay, Kennedy Stewart) and the NDP have the best candidate, this riding should stay NDP.
15 03 29 monkey
TCTC, but definitely won't go NDP. The NDP may win the Burnaby section although even that is not as NDP friendly as some may think (note that includes the provincial riding of Burnaby North which went BC Liberal in the past three elections), but they will get clobbered in North Vancouver where they have never done well. Now the Liberals by contrast could win here as they are normally competitive in North Vancouver and prior to 2008 did well in Burnaby so if the NDP voters vote strategically, then the Liberals have a good chance at taking this. But if the progressive vote is Liberal in North Vancouver, while NDP in Burnaby, then the Tories should hold this as they aren't likely to fall below 35%.
15 03 28 Fairview Resident
Lol, Carleton Student has already predicted a Conservative Majority, but I doubt he has even been to this riding or has looked beyond the 2011 redistributed results. There is no Conservative incumbent. This is an open race with fresh faces.
In 2004 and 2006, the Liberals nearly won the Burnaby ridings against the NDP and won North Vancouver. Based on redistributed results, they would have won this riding, the Tories would have come second and the NDP third. The Liberals' support now is as high or higher in BC than it was then.
This is also an odd riding that favours the Liberals in a 3-way split. The chunk of the North Shore makes this riding tough for the NDP. The Tories will come third in the Burnaby portion, as much of their support in urban metro Vancouver has swung back to the Liberals since 2011. The strategic vote for people on the North Shore weary of having an NDP MP is for the Liberals. Likewise, people in North Burnaby weary of having a Tory MP may vote Liberal.
The Liberals have a solid candidate who has been the candidate for nearly a year already. Right now, I'd say he's the favourite.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
A stronger Liberal party means one thing in a BC riding where the Tory's and NDP face off against eachother. The Conservative takes it with a bigger margin of victory than in 2011.
15 03 24 Jack Cox
I'm stunned no one here thinks the Liberals have a shot, this is an open seat and while I think the NDP does have the best candidate of the three, it is still the North Vancouver area and its a place the Liberals do well in.
15 03 22 Brian A
Of all the ridings in BC that have 'Burnaby' in their name, this one is definitely the least likely to go NDP. It comes down to the pesky portion of North Van that was moved in here by redistribution. Carol Ellan is a great candidate for the NDP, and I want to believe that the NDP will prevail but keeping this one TCTC is the best idea for now.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
This looks like a Conservative-NDP race on the numbers, but the Greens have (for whatever reason) decided to run a strong activist candidate, a scientist prominent in the Mountain and Kinder Morgan resistance. The dynamics of the informal vote swapping of BC coastal ridings is hard to predict, and could end up going very badly for the Greens if the NDP get angered enough to pin May down in Saanich-Gulf, or if the Green decide they just have to strongly contest Esquimalt. A lot of this being part of the dynamic of BC provincial campaigns that no one outside BC comprehends.
Including me.

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