Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-06-20 23:28:16

Constituency Profile


Barker, Martin

Haythornthwaite, Alastair

Hunt-Jinnouchi, Fran

Krayenhoff, Luke

MacGregor, Alistair

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1530.32%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (165/222 polls, 67.97% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jean Crowder

   Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
   (57/222 polls, 32.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Randall Garrison


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15 10 14 Mark in Mexico
Unlike the situation in neighbouring ridings, the Conservatives here -- even on weaker provincial numbers -- cannot be counted out. Whereas I see ABH voters spreading themselves around in those neighbouring ridings, I see them coalescing in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford to ward off the CPC, although Green numbers should tick upward.
15 10 09 Jeff S
Insights West poll showing NDP with a modest lead.
15 10 07 A.S.
The weaker of the two wouldbe 'Jean Crowder successor seats'. Nonetheless, Vancouver Island seems on the whole like the final refuge for the 'NDP in the lead' summer status quo--that is, *if* they're in a clear lead; and here, it might depend a bit on where the last-minute Liberal-candidate quick-switch fallout leads to. (And Liberals being Liberals, it could well be in either of three directions.)
15 10 02 Mark A
The Conservatives have a strong candidate with a very good local history and political background who is polling at about 43-50% of decided voters, depending on which poll you look at.
I see the other three major parties splitting the remaining vote, thus leaving the Conservative candidate in the lead.
The Marxist-Leninist candidate will get some votes, but his support will come from people who would never vote Conservative under any circumstances so whatever support he gets will come at the expense of the NDP or Greens.
15 10 01 Mac
The Conservatives finally have a candidate and in the recent CFAX radio debate was declared the winner by pundits. The radio experts declared that the Conservative candidate likely will get the support of the Liberal voters seeking a new place to put their votes after their candidate retired (although was replaced-and also given the new found NDP-Lib animosity). The CON candidate got some telling shots in on the NDP candidate. In the evening debate the same day it was apparent the Green and the NDP candidates had readjusted their strategies toward the Conservative candidate. From the signs in the riding and the debate audiences it is apparent the Greens are getting some momentum in the riding. This is all bad for the NDP and all good for the Cons. The Conservative support seems to be close to it's historical levels and vote splitting looks like it's gonna be present. Can't imagine the Cons loosing at this point...
15 09 28 Monkey Cheese
Green partisan Griffin seems to think that the Greens will win every seat on the island and that's just pure fantasy. The only other seat they have a shot at is Victoria, not this one, which looks like it's going to be sticking with the NDP.
The Liberal candidate quit after controversial remarks about 9/11 surfaced and there's the question of whether they will find a replacement in time. I think we'll see some of their vote migrate to the NDP if their goal is to defeat Harper, but the Liberals are so meaningless in this riding that those votes likely won't have much of an impact either way.
15 08 28 Griffin Lea
Follow The Numbers can follow these numbers...the recent Insights West poll showing a tightening two way race on the Island, the Green Party is clearly within striking distance of taking any or even all of the Island ridings. The poll put the Green Party at 32% (up 12 points from 20% three months ago) and the NDP at 39% (down 7 points from 46%). This is incredibly huge momentum. When combined with the great candidates in every Island riding as well as the fact that the Green Party will now benefit from Liberal and Conservative voters who are wary of an NDP majority and interested in doing something exciting with their vote, the whole island may very well get painted Green. This momentum is particularly true on the south island closer to Elizabeth May's seat. At this point (if I'm not mistaken) there is no Conservative candidate. This will make the 'vote splitting' myth in this riding even more obsolete until one is chosen and starts campaigning.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
A recent Insights West poll has the NDP at 32% and the Conservatives at 22% in this riding, with the Liberals and Greens far enough behind that their support won't matter. This is a riding that the NDP should have no problems holding based on the numbers.
15 04 30 Gillian
Vancouver Island is probably the most prone to Anti-Harper sentiment. Vancouver Island also has very savvy voters who won't be fooled by a successful federal Liberal campaign and will vote for the progressive candidate with the best chance of winning. As NDP incumbents currently hold the area, the obvious choice will be the NDP.
15 04 11 BJ
With redistribution, the NDP would have won C-M-L by a very narrow ~0.5% in 2011 over the CPC. And that was when the northern portion of the riding was represented by popular NDP incumbent Jean Crowder, which is no longer the case.
Again, with transposed riding results the CPC would have won this riding in 2008 with a ~3.3% margin - when the combined Green and Liberal support was slightly stronger. All at the expense of the NDP.
One underlying provincial riding is Cowichan Valley, which saw the NDP vote drop by 8.2% in 2013, over 2009, with a corresponding increase in the BC Green party vote by almost the same amount.
Federal NDP HQ twice postponed the NDP nomination meeting in this riding as they were apparently not satisfied with the quality of the candidates including current NDP candidate Alistair MacGregor who was constituency assistant to Jean Crowder.
The Green Party is surging on Vancouver Island, especially in Greater Victoria, and will also see a major vote share gain in C-M-L in 2015 mostly at the expense of former NDP voters.
The Green Party candidate with a contested nomination, Fran Hunt-Jinnouchi, certainly has an impressive CV and was also a former elected FN chief. The Cowichan Valley also has a large FN population, which previously voted heavily NDP. Suspect that many of those former FN NDP voters will vote Green in 2015 as well.
While not a threat in this riding, the Liberals will also see an increase in their popular vote share as part of their rising tide. Again, the increase in both the Green and Liberal vote will mostly come at the expense of former NDP voters.
Unless the Greens surge enormously in this riding in the last weeks of the 2015 campaign, the CPC should still be considered the odds on favourite to win.
15 04 07 Predictor 2015
It's going to be a close election, with the battle between the Cons and the NDP. Cons still haven't nominated a candidate and all of the ones running for the nomination are weak candidates, 2/3 lost thier battles during recent munincipal election. VERY weak Liberal candidate with no political experince who will garner very little support. Green candidate's resume is impressive but lacks relatability with the people in Langford or Cowichan. Langford will not be voting green!
The NDP candidate - is what this riding is all about. The battle will be in Langford, and everyone thinks that it is a shoe in for the Cons but I completly dissagree... Langford has changed over the last few years, more small familys just trying to get by. They will relate to Alistair as he is a young guy with young kids. I predict the NDP to win this seat.
15 03 29 monkey
TCTC, Liberals and Greens won't win here, but will play kingmaker depending on how they steal votes from or if they lose votes where they migrate to.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
I actually agree with Craig here. It's an NDP-CON battle. With a stronger LPC and GPC, the conservatives win it easily.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
1. NDP 1. Con 3. who cares. One of those NDP vs. Con left/right battles.
There might be 40 of those in the country, and they're all very interesting. But hard to call in the midst of a general Liberal surge and Green tactical machinations and their always-surprising swing and swap capacity.

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