Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Fleetwood-Port Kells

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:02:24

Constituency Profile


Begg, Garry

Grewal, Nina

Hardie, Ken

Hosein, Richard

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3060.88%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (155/169 polls, 92.37% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Nina Grewal

   Surrey North
   (14/169 polls, 7.63% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jasbir Sandhu


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 17 Marco Ricci
Close Conservative-Liberal race according to Mainstreet, with NDP in 3rd.
Decided & Leaning:
LPC - 35
CPC - 35
NDP - 24
All Voters:
CPC - 31
LPC - 29
NDP - 21
Probably a narrow Conservative win, based on incumbency advantage. But possibly an opening for the Liberals. Be interesting to see if Justin Trudeau visits here this weekend during the final riding blitz the leaders are doing.
15 10 16 Jeff S
Mainstreet poll shows the LPC and CPC tied.
15 10 16 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/10/10) Con 39%, Lib 39%, NDP 24%.
15 10 14 poljunkiebc
The Liberals are surging in the south fraser suburbs of the lower mainland. Previously undecided voters I know in this riding are now quite likely to vote Liberal. That's not to say this is completely representative, but some of these people have voted for other parties in the past. I expect this to go Liberal with about 35-40% once votes are tallied.
15 10 13 BC predictor
I think this is a riding where the candidates may influence the outcome more so than other ridings. Nina Grewal is tainted by her last name and the insinuation of corruption that comes with it. Many conservative types will be impressed by the NDP running a former police officer and may be tempted to vote for him instead of Nina to clear the deck. Also the provincial trend makes this prediction easy. NDP pickup
15 10 11 CBM
Don't underestimate Nina. She's sort of like the Hedy Fry of Surrey, every election people think she is going to be voted out and she squeeks in again.
15 10 07 A.S.
I knew the earlier NDP prediction seemed premature. More likely, by the sound of things, we're returning to the 2004/06 status quo of less than 10 points separating the LibConNDP candidates.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
A three way NDP, Liberal, Conservative split with a slight lead to the NDP which is falling in the polls. Thus no prediction. This may come down to what the 3% or so Green vote does. Hard to predict. Not going to try it.
15 09 30
Ken Hardie has the name recognition going for him. Will be a riding to watch for sure.
15 09 07 Marco Ricci
With the recent uptick in Liberal numbers in BC, the 308 site now has Fleetwood-Port Kells as leaning Liberal, ever so slightly.
So it looks like there may be some more uncertainty in this riding in the weeks ahead.
15 08 05 Dr Bear
LISPOP has this riding leaning NDP and threehundredeight has this riding going NDP by almost 10 percentage points. With polling numbers as they are in BC it is no surprise that this would be called for the NDP. they have always been competitive in this riding. That said, I am not prepared to predict against Ms. Grewal. She always seems to eke out a win despite what everyone throws at her. Sorta like the Conservative version of Hedy Fry in Vancouver Centre.
15 08 03 Jan
This has been a close riding the past few elections. With the Conservatives tanking in B.C., this riding will easily go NDP.
15 08 02 R.O.
Flipping thru I was surprised to see this one called for the ndp , considering Nina Grewal the current conservative mp is running for re-election in the riding. She has been mp since 2004 and seems to find ways to keep getting re elected . her closest race so far was actually in 2006 oddly enough when she barely beat the liberals here. But has increased her margins since and beat ndp by over 10% in 2011 a year the ndp vote had surged across the country. So I think she goes into the election with at least somewhat of a chance of keeping this one.
15 03 27 BJ
A unique Surrey, BC riding that has several internal cleavages.
The portion of Fleetwood-Port Kells north of the Hwy 1 freeway is known as Fraser Heights and is a higher income demographic area. The CPC won many polling stations here with as high as 70% back in 2011.
South of the Hwy 1 freeway, one could categorize the less-populated eastern half as small c conservative and the beginning of the interface with the rest of the small c conservative Fraser Valley ridings that vote overwhelmingly CPC.
The western half of the riding is the interesting part as it is the older inner urban area of Surrey. The CPC won roughly most of the polling stations here back in 2011 as well. The remainder by the NDP when they were at their peak in BC with the federal Liberal collapse. But the NDP has reached their proverbial ceiling here and cannot win this riding.
Prior to 2011, the federal Liberals were always in 2nd place in this riding, which they likely will be again in 2015 due to the soft Liberal and NDP vote switching contingent.
In order for the Liberals to win this riding, they need a star candidate akin to former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts (who is now the CPC candidate for
South Surrey-White Rock). Even with the weak CPC MP incumbent. But do not see that happening. Weakest CPC hold in Surrey in 2015.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
The story is the same in another BC riding. Tory incumbent. Stronger Liberal to split. Welcome back to Ottawa MP Grewal
15 03 25 Dr. Bear
While we have a long-time MP running again for the CPC, the opposition parties always seemed to be a credible threat to Conservative reelection. While Ms Grewal might keep the seat, she has a hard fight ahead of her, especially with Liberal numbers up and CPC numbers down in the Vancouver area.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster