Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-06-20 23:28:32

Constituency Profile


East, Jack

MacDonald, Mark Allen

Malcolmson, Sheila

Manly, Paul

Tessier, Tim

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2750.49%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (135/252 polls, 55.41% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jean Crowder

   (117/252 polls, 44.59% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

James Lunney


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15 10 16 oceanside
I think the strength of the Greens or the strength of the 'Manly' name, (no credit to candidate), is being underestimated in Nanaimo. My personal preference is for Trudeau but the Libs have selected a 'non-starter' as a candidate in this riding. The centre left vote will be between the Greens and the NDP. This is a traditional Conservative stronghold in past elections, having been modified by redistribution. Second to the problem of NDP vote being siphoned off by the Greens and I think that the Greens/Manly connection will siphon off huge quantities of votes from the NDP, is the problem that the Conservative candidate is part of the relic known as the evangelical nut case religious right! What ever I think of them, they are dedicated, reliable and hard working. Their religious fervour will likely reap dividends on Monday. The Conservative candidate is way out there right wing, makes the Reform party look liberal, but he has the religious right nuts behind him, to solidify his vote, and at the same time, the Greens are running a far more aggressive campaign than I have ever seen in Nanaimo, to the detriment of the NDP.
15 10 14 Mark in Mexico
At the outset of this campaign, five of seven Island ridings looked set to be NDP-Conservative duels, with this riding likely the NDP's safest amongst the five. It's hard to tell from afar, but I sense that something is afoot on the Island, and it's not lining up with the rest of Canada. And I can't get over this feeling that, although it may ultimately end up going NDP, it could be a very, very close contest.
Barring a reversal in the polls in the final days, a Harper majority seems to be off the table, and a Harper victory seems less likely than a fortnight ago -- though still quite possible. Further, this riding skews less Conservative than your average BC riding, so with the CPC consistently polling at 32% or below in BC, it seems unlikely that they'll break through the 30% mark in this riding (or even 25%, quite possibly) and will lose this seat. If ABH types who have not already voted don't feel a Conservative victory is likely here, they may feel liberated to drift away from ABH standard-bearer, Ms. Malcolmson of the NDP.
The Liberal Party was a virtual non-entity on the Island coming into this election, having been relegated to fourth place in 2011. Despite a rise in Liberal fortunes across the country in the latter half of the campaign, there is no evidence of any sort of red tide on the Island, and the Liberals don't yet seem to be threatening to compete for any of the Island seats. Liberal growth in BC outside of their traditional Lower Mainland hub of support seems to be more Interior-oriented than Island-oriented. Most of what we have heard about Liberal candidates on the Island is that two out of seven were rejected by the party. I really haven't heard a thing about the other five (or the replacement in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford).
On the other hand, the Green Party seems poised to improve on their 15% Island return from 2011, and further, to spread their vote around a little more efficiently. There is Green momentum on the Island that predates the current campaign. Elizabeth May accounted for half of all Green votes four years ago; with strong Green campaigns elsewhere on the Island, her vote share in Saanich-Gulf Islands may grow, but the vote shares of other Island Green candidates should grow more. And really, if the Liberals seem likeliest to form government but unlikely to win any Island seats, doesn't a Green vote sort of serve as a best-of-both-worlds, next-closest-thing for Island voters?
Locally, the combination of the NDP-Manly kerfuffle and not one but two riding polls from different outfits showing a) the Greens over 20% and fighting the Conservatives for second, and b) the NDP at *only* 34% (down 15pp from 2011) makes me think that Nanaimo-Ladysmith is suddenly within reach for the Greens. At least some 'Old stock' ;) NDP from the Manly era will take their votes to the new Manly party, as will some who were thinking of voting Liberal but see them mired in fourth. Not to mention the 10% or so of voters who will abandon the CPC for another party. I'm sure some 'Old stock' ;) CPC voters who can't bear the thought of voting NDP will drift to the Greens instead.
In some ways, this now looks like many Québec ridings: strongly NDP four years ago, but now the NDP find themselves hanging on for dear life as three other parties nip at their heels. And like many Québec ridings this year, it may likely be won by whatever party can muster up the 30 in a 30-28-25-17 split. Advantage NDP, but by a whisker, not the double-digit advantage you would imagine. And a whisker not being a definitive margin of victory, Nanaimo-Ladysmith is TCTC, and suddenly one of the most interesting ridings to watch on Monday night.
15 10 09 Karen
Today I arrived at the advanced polling station. I was suprised by the large but decidedly CPC and NDP crowd, mostly elderly and to a lesser extent, mature working class. I realised that many were considering vote swaping but to who...Green or NDP, was less clear. However Harper was the main point to defeat, Clark government second.
Country before party seemed the idea but this left a complicated question.. BC has a history with NDP as dubious whether positive or negatively imoactful, depending on region and age of voter who experienced their rule.
The Green Party has become more established in the last election, has a direct platform comparrison to the NDP without the baggage of negative association with Premier leadership over BC in its past. They have of course Elizabeth May but this year, in our riding a very substantial promise of National party legitamacy through Paul Manley.
I say this because every party was once 'new' and struggled to establish itself as a viable party to be noticed, especially in Fedral elections. Paul Manley brings this opportunity in this election to cement the Green Party from struggling to establish, to having arrived, in the quality of candidates and platforms it has and will attract going forward.
So yes, country first over party in this election, CPC has to go, Liberals Provincially are unwanted, Fedrally I am unsure but in this case, I dont think Trudues appeal can trump our desire to rid ourselves of our current Provincial Government.
So that leaves NDP or Green Party.
If it wasnt for the growth in caliber and platform in the Green Party through hard work and candidates they have attracted, Id say NDP would have the shot at vote swaping inspite of uneasiness of the past performance when siezing power Provincially in the recent past.
But the lure to finally establish a new party to a legitamate titan on the Federal scene, to reward the party for its hardwork and caliber of candidates and strongly show a desire for firm change for BC and Canadas future by cementing the Green Party as a matured party capable and even desireable to lead in BC this election, contend on level ground in 2019.... is provocative.
So the dilema... which party The Green Party or NDP, do you vote for and not split the vote to allow a CPC default win? Can we vote Green AND firmly establish the party as Nationally viable contender in 2019, attracting top caliber members behind its platform even more impressively than they delivered for this election?
Can we have our cake and eat it too? Yes, I think we can. NDP is a safe vote for those affraid of something new. But this term, The Green Party has come in to its own. I am interested enough and secure enough to vote away Harper AND usher in a streak of Green in our local and National representation.
I dont have to make a safey vote. I can vote with confidence knowing my vote will count in more ways than just that one.
Today The Green Party and NDP are neck and neck. I say vote with confidence not with caution. The Green Party will win, we will all win and really ruffle and shuffle the political landscape over the next 4 years.
15 10 09 Jeff S
Insights West showing NDP with modest lead. Paul Manly cutting into their lead.
15 10 07 A.S.
The 'other' Jean Crowther successor seat, now thoroughly Nanaimo-centric--which also means the NDP advantage is diluted by the affluent/retiree-heavy former Nanaimo-Alberni polls. *And* Paul Manly as a wild card, at least if one gives credence to polls showing Vancouver Island at large as a NDP-Green tossup--though consider that Nanaimo is to large measure a 'working town', and that 'working townness' is the NDP base. So the Greens could just as well be eating into the LibCon core instead, even allowing for Manly's NDP-cred parentage...
15 10 01 Craig Hubley
The Conservative surge and NDP slump in BC has made this a questionable NDP call, so I'm withdrawing mine. The Greens are a wild card but I do not believe this supposed 32% Vancouver Island support is 1. objectively measured 2. current even with the NDP slumping and the Cons a threat again 3. focused proportionately in this riding. Greens matter because of their focus: They donate, volunteer and vote swap across riding boundaries far more than other parties do, and the national office supports the leading candidates strongly. However, this riding is perhaps eight in priority after May's own, Victoria, and those in the direct path of Kinder Morgan.
Plus it's far more strategic for the Greens to break through in Guelph or Fredericton and to re-elect Bruce Hyer (to prove floor crossers to Green can in fact be re-elected as Greens) than to focus overly much on BC. So it's the BC Greens alone who will have to decide whether this one is worth the focus, and I think they will veer away from viable Conservative threats to avoid giving the NDP an 'I told you so' propaganda victory.
15 09 08 Oceanside Nanaimo
I think that this could have been a more interesting contest had the Liberals chosen a more credible candidate with some history, roots and solid networking in the community. Now that the Liberals have abdicated their responsibility to the NDP, with respect to taking this riding from the Conservatives, (definitely not Progressive Conservatives), the election should be a slam dunk for the NDP. But now the wild card, a candidate with a locally popular name representing the Greens, in my opinion, riding without merit, on the coattails of his extremely popular father, from an era long past, but still a strong presence in the memory of many long time residents. I don't personally care for the Green candidate, but I can certainly see how his family history could siphon off enough votes from the NDP, his family home as it were, to give this riding back to the Conservatives, unfortunately. Should be good fun to watch.
15 08 28 Griffin Lea
With the recent Insights West poll showing a tightening two way race on the Island, the Green Party is clearly within striking distance of taking any or even all of the Island ridings. The poll put the Green Party at 32% (up 12 points from 20% three months ago) and the NDP at 39% (down 7 points from 46%). This is incredibly huge momentum. When combined with the great candidates in every Island riding as well as the fact that the Green Party will now benefit from Liberal and Conservative voters who are wary of an NDP majority and interested in doing something exciting with their vote, the whole island may very well get painted Green. This momentum is particularly true on the south island closer to Elizabeth May's seat, which is only an hours drive from Nanaimo-Ladysmith.
15 08 26 Sam
This is now a 'too close to call' riding-- with popular candidate Paul Manly handily putting on a strong campaign, added with the recent Insights West poll in the Vancouver Sun putting the Greens on Vancouver Island in the 30's with the NDP--- I can't call this one.
Paul Manly was supposed to have ran for the NDP but Mulcair refused to sign the nomination papers. With his switch to the Greens and taking his supporters with him---it was a large coupe for the Green Party.
Judging by the lawn signs, the number of 'likes' each candidate has in their Facebook pages (Greens 1,300, NDP 600, Conservatives 300, Liberals 200) one could argue calling this for Manly.
Too close would be more appropriate.
15 04 05 BJ
With redistribution, the addition of strongly-leaning CPC North Nanaimo to this riding dilutes this previous NDP stronghold. In addition, incumbent Jean Crowder has retired removing any incumbency bounce or effect. On paper, this riding should still likely be the strongest NDP seat on Vancouver Island, even after redistribution, for 2015 even though it is marginal.
With redistribution, the NDP would have won this riding by about a 5% marginal win in 2011 with Jean Crowder`s incumbency. Based upon similar transposed results for 2008, the CPC would have actually won this riding by a 1% margin. The CPC popular vote share remained the same here in both 2008 and 2011 at about 40%. OTOH, the NDP popular vote share in 2008 was lower due to a somewhat higher combined Liberal and Green popular vote share at the expense of the NDP popular vote.
In 2015, the Liberals will see a bit of an increase here over 2011. But one needs to watch the Green vote in particular on Vancouver Island. The Greens popular vote share increases and gains seems to be surging at both the municipal, provincial, and federal level on Vancouver Island.
In the case of Nanaimo-Ladysmith, the Greens have nominated a high profile local candidate - Paul Manly. Manly was a former Dipper and also seems to have brought over considerable 2011 Dipper support to his campaign. Interestingly enough, Green leader May and candidate Manly were at a townhall meeting on Gambier island (just off Nanaimo) about a month ago. At the local community hall they had a standing-room only and over-flowing crowd.
More significantly, Gambier Island saw an overal 60% - 70% NDP vote for its 7 polling stations in 2011, the CPC 2nd at about 20%, and the Greens 3rd at about 10%. Tells me right there that a major NDP to Green voting shift is taking place.
A few days ago, at a Vancouver Island meeting, Green leader May stated that Green internal polls place the Greens at over 30% on Vancouver Islnad. If that is indeed correct, a major political shift is occurring on Vancouver Island mostly from the NDP to the Greens.
Right now, I see this seat as going CPC due to the Green/NDP vote split. That said, if the Greens have major momentum and surge during the 4 week run-up to election day, they potentially might even win this seat. Sorry, cannot see the NDP winning this seat with this electoral dynamic.
15 03 29 monkey
Liberals and Greens won't win here, but will play kingmaker depending on how they steal votes from or if they lose votes where they migrate to. With Jean Crowder not running this also makes this one more competitive, although unlike most other rural Vancouver Island ridings, I do give the edge to the NDP on this one.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
No matter how much Liberals surge in the other 337 ridings, in this one, the anti-Harper vote is NDP, period. Really hard to imagine that there will be anything but consolidation and a Conservative loss due to general loss of support for Harper in coastal BC.

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