Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

South Okanagan-West Kootenay

Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:36:01

Constituency Profile


Cannings, Richard

Denesiuk, Connie

Gray, Brian

Neufeld, Marshall

Troy, Samantha

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3080.55%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   British Columbia Southern Interior
   (167/265 polls, 58.40% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Alex Atamanenko

   (90/265 polls, 39.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Dan Albas

   (8/265 polls, 2.60% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

David Wilks


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15 10 15 Conservative Pundit
An Insights West poll conducted on October 10 with 301 adult residents of the riding shows support as follow: 27% NDP, 23% Conservative, 17% Liberal, 6% Green and 27% undecided. I think this one is TCTC.
15 10 10 Mark in Mexico
Way back when redistribution happened and everybody talked about how the NDP would 'automatically' pick up some seats in Saskatchewan, I would think of this riding as the one that was likely to go the other way in 2015 -- an NDP seat returned 'automatically' to the Conservatives by hacking off some orange bits and adding some blue bits.
Then the NDP went and got popular and for the longest time it looked like they would get to keep this anyway.
Now we're back to where we started. This is looking like a toss-up today, and toss-ups often favour the blue team. Regional numbers from Innovative show the Conservatives up since the top of the campaign, the NDP down, and the Liberal wobbling, but definitely up from 2011. Until one of those trends changes, this is undoubtedly TCTC.
15 10 08 A.S.
The NDP advantage of the former BCSI's been injured by the excision of Nelson and the addition of Penticton (and of course, the retirement of Alex A.); but still, what remains is the likeliest non-Nathan Cullen Interior seat to go Orange. And hate to say it, but even *that's* now uncertain thanks to dropping NDP polls nationwide. (Yeah, somebody's gotta offer that possibility at this stage of the game.)
15 09 23 R.O.
I came across a poll for this riding on insight west polling page , it's a small sample of 300 riding residents. There numbers 31 ndp , 24 cpc , 13 lib , 3 green , 29 % undecided . so it appears to be a close ndp/conservative race , pollster also indicated race has tightened since last poll in july. both harper and mulcair have visited this riding so far this campaign a sign it's a competitive riding.
15 08 18 R.O.
This is some what of a redistributed riding and includes parts of 2 ridings , ndp mp Alex Atamenenkos bc southern interior and Okanagan coquihalla a safe conservative riding . in 2011 had it existed it would of voted conservative by a small margin. There is no incumbent this election so its an open riding and neither of the new candidates seem that high profile. It appears to be a race between ndp and conservatives here and maybe a riding that is too close to call
15 07 15 Expat
A riding-specific poll for South Okanagan?West Kootenay has the NDP now ahead by a more than 2-1 margin here. By comparison, the 3 other ridings polled were all 3-way races. This seems to align well with the other recent BC regional polls.
Reference: https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/insights-west-polling-july?mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRonvazBZKXonjHpfsX56uskW6OylMI%2F0ER3fOvrPUfGjI4ARcRnI%2BSLDwEYGJlv6SgFTbfBMbNo1bgPWRk%3D
15 07 13 Dr Bear
In a riding that would have been that close in 2011 will certainly go NDP with the current polling numbers. Add the lack of an incumbent and unless one candidate stands out over the others it will vote orange.
15 05 20 VJR
Both LISPOP and 308.com have SO-WK predicted as an NDP hold, and the NDP's numbers in BC are on the rise as of now.
15 04 30 Gillian
Even with Conservative gerrymandering on the Federal Election Boundaries Commission for BC, this riding will stay NDP due to growing anti-Harper sentiment in British Columbia.
15 03 29 Mr. Dave
The ABC movement should keep this riding from going Conservative in 2015.
Alex Atamanenko served this area well during his 9 years as M.P., and what little Green/Liberal support there is here would hopefully want to keep this riding from going back into the Conservative fold.
15 03 29 monkey
Interesting riding as the South Okanagan portion much like the rest of the Okanagan should go solidly Conservative but the West Kootenays by contrast in generally fairly NDP friendly unlike most of the interior. This is thanks to the large Dhukhobor population around Grand Forks who are pacifist, the strong union movement in and around Trail, and the large number of Draft Dodgers who settled in the Slocan Valley. The Liberals have no chance at winning, but should do better the last time around so who they take more votes from will be key in determining who wins this.
15 03 28 BJ
SOWK is a riding that saw major changes with redistribution and also has about 4 distinct and separate voting regions. From west to east:
1. Similkameen Valley (from Princeton to Keremeos) with CPC winning most polling stations in 2011;
2. South Okanagan Valley (from Oliver to Osoyoos) with CPC winning most polling stations by large margins in 2011.
*With redistribution, the riding has shifted northwards in the Okanagan Valley to encompass further small towns as well as the City of Penticton. In 2011, the CPC won most of the polling stations here also by wide margins making the new riding more CPC friendly.
3. Boundary Country - many small towns that voted CPC in the western part until one hits Grand Forks where the CPC and NDP split polling stations in 2011.
4. West Kootenay - the NDP won most polling stations here with large margins;
*With redistribution, the heavily NDP eastern portion of the riding, including the City of Nelson, has been shifted into neighbouring Kootenay-Columbia riding again making the riding more CPC friendly.
The West Kootenays are also unique within interior BC as having a somewhat Bohemian environmentalist culture, which is also potentially fertile Green Party territory.
During the 2011 election, the CPC would have won this riding by a 5% margin. Back in 2008, the CPC would have won this riding by a larger 10% margin with vote transposition. The CPC held a similar popular vote share but both the Liberals and Greens also had higher shares at expense of NDP.
Again, look for a higher Liberal and Green Party vote share in this riding at expense of NDP in 2015. A CPC win in 2015 but by a narrow margin unlike the huge majorities that the CPC racks up in the rest of interior BC.

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