Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-23 21:35:00

Constituency Profile


Albas, Dan

Bouchard, Dan

Finnis, David

Kidder, John

Upshaw, Sean

Wittel, Dietrich

Hon. Stockwell Day

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kamloops,-thompson-and-highland-valleys (5/202 Polls)
  • kelowna (23/243 Polls)
  • okanagan-coquihalla (171/220 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 29 Pentictonite
    This is proving to be an interesting race. There was a scathing editorial of Dan Albas in the penticton paper today. Albas is getting heat from the independant conservative and is clearly off his game. Both the liberal and green candidates have shone, we may yet see an upset here.
    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    Stockwell Day maybe retiring, but this is a safe Tory riding. The NDP use to do well in the Coquihalla portion, but most of the population lives in the Okanagan portion and that is the fastest growing part. This area goes solidly Conservative. Likewise the Coquihalla part may go NDP provincially, but they are more your rural populist types, not your downtown urban socialists. After all, their MLA Harry Lali called for the NDP to scrap affirmative action for choosing staff and candidates, something the federal NDP would never dare do. Thus Conservatives by a landslide, probably with over 50% of the popular vote.
    11 03 29 Bill
    Despite Stockwell's retirement, this will be a Tory hold. Right wing riding, the Liberals aren't popular at all out here.
    Dan Albas will be able to hold it, proving he avoids a catastrophic gaffe.
    This is a core tory seat!
    11 03 29 binriso
    The old Alliancers seems to be leaving in larger numbers this year, but they have some nice pensions to look forward to in their retirement. I can see a good battle for 2nd between the other three parties and a much reduced margin of victory since the CPC will likely be down to around 45 percent.
    11 03 29 Globe and Mail
    From Globe and Mail today:
    The opening shots of the federal election campaign in B.C. came from Tories firing on Tories in seats held by Tory MPs, according to reports of regional newspapers across the province.
    Caustic exchanges between Tories provided strong headlines in local newspapers reporting on ridings held by long-time Conservative stalwarts Stockwell Day, Chuck Strahl and John Cummins, who announced on Mar. 12 they would not seek re-election.
    ‘Race to replace Day was rigged say some hopefuls,’ stated the headline in the Penticton Western News. Kelowna realtor Sean Upshaw was interested in the Conservative nomination in Okanagan-Coquihalla after Mr. Day announced his intention to retire from politics. But the nomination was held so quickly after Mr. Day’s announcement that Mr. Upshaw did not have time to meet party requirements for submitting nomination papers. The newspaper reported that Mr. Upshaw thought he could deliver his nomination papers to the party’s riding association president, Mr. Day’s assistant Doug Sharpe. However when he met Mr. Sharpe, he was told to send his application to Ottawa. But by then it was too late. ‘If this is the present state of how we decide to elect our politicians in the Conservative party, what a sad, sad state of affairs we are in,’ Mr. Upshaw told the newspaper. Former fundraising chair for Mr. Day, Mischa Popoff, told the newspaper he tore up his Conservative membership card in protest over how the nomination process was handled. Mr. Popoff said it was ‘a clear abuse of the electoral process,’ the newspaper reported. City councillor Dan Albas won the nomination.
    11 03 25 Marco Ricci
    Both Ross Rebagliati and Stockwell Day will not be running in this election afterall, so both the Liberals and the Conservatives are going to have to find new candidates. It would have been fun for the voters to see them campaigning against each other! Anyway, this riding is likely to stay solidly Conservative whoever is nominated.
    09 10 31 R.O.
    This riding has been in the news after former olympic snowboarder Ross Rebagliati announced he was going after the liberal nomination. but in all fairness he likely picked one of the most unlikely and unwinnable ridings for the liberals in BC . and even if they were to somehow gain seats in this province which is far from a sure thing this one be just about the last to go liberal . as this riding has a fairly solid conservative history and has been won by Stockwell Day by large margins since he first ran in the riding in 2000. he has not got less than 19,000 votes ever in the riding and that was during the by-election and during a general election he has not got less than 24,000 votes . the opposition parties have barely been able to crack the 10,000 vote mark in any of the recent elections so they have a weak base of support in the riding. Stockwell Day is also now a high profile cabinet minister in the conservative government and greatly improved his credibility since his days as alliance leader. so he clearly has the advantage here over the snowboarder turned politician.
    09 09 10 Stevo
    Stockwell Day has done well in his Cabinet roles, hard to believe he's the same person who held a press conference in a wetsuit in 2000 and flashed a cardboard sign at a leaders debate that looked as if it were made by a 5-year old. He has represented Canada very well abroad and has found his niche. So what if he flunked as leader? very few can excel at that. Victory with 55-60% popular vote for Day, and the Greens are likely to come in second.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    Rural British Columbia is Conservative Country. While they have lost ground in Skeena-Bulkley Valley and BC Southern Interior, every other riding is a safe Conservative victory.
    09 08 23 Observer
    This is the seat of former Canadian Alliance Leader and current Minister of International Trade, Stockwell Day. Okanagan-Coquihalla is in the deeply conservative and rural British Columbia. No one can beat MP Stockwell Day and the Conservatives.

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