Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Saanich North and the Islands

Prediction Changed
2017-04-13 18:05:16

Constituency Profile



Holman, Gary

Olsen, Adam

Roberts, Stephen P.

Templeman, Jordan

Saanich North and the Islands
Gary Holman

Population (2014):56492
Deviation from average:6.30%
Geographical Area:1519 sq km
2013 Election Result
Saanich North and the Islands
Gary Holman
Stephen P Roberts
Adam Olsen
Scott McEachern
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


The Greens are not going to pick this up, sorry to say.
The overall trend for the Greens in the Island is down and leaning voters are fickle. They over extended themselves by running too many candidates this time and it will be just like Elizabeth May federally.
They have been overrated and will only keep their OBGH seat.
This riding goes either Liberal or NDP with a small edge to the Liberals based on the old history of this riding: Liberal even when the NDP won.
08/05/2017 South Islander
After an Oracle poll showed a 3-way race, Mainstreet now shows a dead heat between the BCL and Greens with the NDP out of the picture (behind by 11% with 11% undecided and a MOE of 4.7%, they're very likely to finish 3rd). In light of Oracle and Mainstreet, I'd say it's a BCL-Green horse race that Olsen might only be able to win if NDP voters are willing to follow the advice of the NDP campaign and vote strategically. http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-liberals-set-majority/
07/05/2017 S. Brodeur
Times Colonist poll specific to this race shows Libs and NDP tied in first and Greens falling back in third. Gary Holman is the incumbent and anti-Christy vote breaking his way. Greens have not made the gains here that were trumpeted.
07/05/2017 SNI Voter
A very close race where the NDP are getting desperate trying to sway voters to their side. As for this riding I feel voters are not easily swayed and have already made their mind up. I see far more Green signs on private lawns than any other party even in areas like Ardmore and Dean Park, Brentwood Bay is lined with Green signs. I live in the riding and voted NDP last time, this time I am voting Green and I am aware of others who are doing the same.
06/05/2017 Miles Lunn
An oracle poll out today has the riding 34% BC Liberals, 34% NDP and 32% Greens otherwise a perfect three way race. Since the margin of error it +/-5.6% this is still anybody's race. Considering how soft the Green support is, I believe both the BC Liberals and NDP will do better province wide in percentages (both will likely get over 40% province wide) and Greens worse. Thus while province wide results would suggest this should be an easy Green win, riding poll suggests a closer race.
06/05/2017 South Islander
I thought the NDP had no chance to hold, but we might be looking at a 3-way race as close as last time. Of course, the sample is small and the margin of error is large enough that anyone could be ahead here.
06/05/2017 Saanich resident
This should make for an interesting rematch of the nailbiter race in 2013. Unfortunately for Holman, I think this will be one of two additional ridings swept up in the Green wave on Vancouver Island (along with Cowichan Valley). A lot of this area is Elizabeth May's federal base of support and will support Olsen more strongly this time around.
29/04/2017 Arm Chair Observer
This is a two way race this time around between the liberals and greens. Both have been campaigning since 2013. If the green vote on the island doesn't collapse in this last week, Adan Olsen will take it by a couple hundred votes. NDP incumbent will finish a distant 3rd.
29/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
What is with this irrational obsession with the burger poll?? Burger Heaven, which does the poll (and is a great burger place, but moreso than that a great milkshake place) is located in the NDP bastion of New Westminster, and incredibly, every year I can remember it predicts a landslide NDP victory with the possible exception of 2001. Good (Burger) Heaven(s) can we forget about the stupid burger poll?
They are seriously good burgers and shakes though.
29/04/2017 hay sting
I'll go out on a limb and say it won't be as close as last time. But it will still be close. I think the Greens have enough momentum and established support now to take this riding by a few hundred.
26/04/2017 political fox
I have checked out Mainstreet again and seen the updates for myself so must partly agree with long time resident that the green support is both rising and getting stronger that 67% not will to switch their votes away from the green is no exaggeration and the Liberals continue to lag on the island it is no time for a liberal to get in on the Island or Metro Vancouver if the numbers hold up. Looks like it will be either NDP or Green depending on who does the best getting their supporters out to the poll. Could it be that only the Greens walk the walk on keeping big donations from unions and corporations out of politics. And if that burger poll in New Westminster is any indication looks like it will be NDP getting the most seats , Greens finishing 2nd and Liberals being reduced to 3rd place almost like 1991 all over again
27/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
I would have to agree - this was so close last time with what was a disastrous provincial campaign for the Greens. This time they are running a fantastic campaign and this riding is top of the list for pick-ups. With the federal Green base now well established here also and the general discontent and disapproval of both Liberal and NDP leaders, this riding will give voice to much of the rest of us by saying a pox to both houses and sending a second Green member to Victoria. A phenomenal result for a third party not achieved since 1996.
25/04/2017 Long Time Resident
All three candidates will do well again, but I agree with this riding already being declared for the Greens. All three have a strong presence, but only two have seemed to stay visible between elections (the now-incumbent NDP MLA of course, and Adam Olsen). I've spoken to many people who live in the riding who didn't vote for Olsen last time, who will be this time. Some didn't last time out of fear that he couldn't win, but how close the vote was last time has reassured people that he can win this time. This provincial riding is entirely within the borders of the federal riding that Elizabeth May has twice won for the Greens, and Elizabeth won a huge victory here 18 months ago (much bigger than her win a couple of years before Olsen ran previously). The polls have never looked better for the Greens at 22% province-wide and 37% on Vancouver Island, and that same poll (Mainstreet Research) showed their support hardening to 67% certain to not change their vote (approximately the same degree of certain to not change their vote as the Liberals and NDP, and far more solid than in past elections). Finally, for the first time Green support is close to equal across most age groups (having picked up more support from seniors than they've enjoyed in the past) which helps insulate the Greens from certain age groups being under-represented on election day. This seems likely to be the Greens' second-best result in the province, and almost certainly a win, and I'm not at all surprised the Election Prediction Project called this for Olsen shortly after the writ was dropped.
21/04/2017 The Tyee
Feature article about this riding in the Tyee.
Riding to Watch: Three-Way Battle in Saanich North
18/04/2017 political fox
there is no way the Liberals are taking this riding back if the latest Mainstreet poll is any indication it shows that the Greens are gaining on the island at the expense of the liberals not the NDP. It also shows that Green support being the softest with only 53% of Green voters saying they will not change their minds. Of the other 47% they are more than twice as likely to switch their votes to the NDP than
any other party 65% of the Green's soft support. Polls also indicate that more than half the electric feel it is time for a change in government and it is unlikely that it can be the Greens this time. This riding stays in the NDP camp on May 9th
13/04/2017 Physastr Master
I think this is an easy call for the Greens. The Green Party had much weaker leadership last election, and this year they are looking to overtake the Liberals on the Island and even getting vaguely close to NDP numbers. Since I would expect the Green support to be concentrated in Greater Victoria and the Saanich Peninsula, it seems hard to believe that the Greens wouldn't pick up a riding they lost by 1% last time. Meanwhile, I think that if the Greens continue to surge on the Island, we could see some serious surprises in a few long-time NDP strongholds in Greater Victoria - Victoria-Beacon Hill, I'm looking at you. In Saanich North and the Islands, the Liberals will likely either stay steady or drop slightly, while the NDP loses ground to the Greens dramatically, handing the seat comfortably to Olsen - i.e. the new strength of the Green party will remedy vote splitting on the left in this riding.
01/04/2017 South Islander
There's a lot of spin here from BCL supporters / organizers about strategic voting and coming up the middle, but let's face it - it's rationalization and doesn't ring true. People don't vote strategically for a party that has never won a seat over the incumbent party - even if this was true in a handful of cases, the inverse was obviously true in far more. There would have also been many progressives who voted strategically for The NDP, which came extremely close in 2009, but will vote Green this time. Mainstreet now has the Greens in first place on the Island - they finished third in 2013 44/34/17. If their support collapses to near 2013 levels, this district might be competitive. Until it does, it's pretty clear which way voters in this district that is deeply Green federally and nearly went Green in 2013 are leaning.
21/03/2017 North Islander
One thing is for sure...Gary Holman will not be re-elected on May 9th. It'll be a real dogfight between the Liberals and Greens but at this point in time I'm going to predict a BC Liberal victory. The BC Liberals seem to have the most organized team/campaign in this Riding.
17 03 14 Bernard
There were a lot of centre right people that voted Green in 2013 to try and ensure the NDP did not win. Many of these people are voting BC Liberal this time including a number of people that worked on the Olsen campaign in 2013.
Stephen Roberts is also the only candidate with a campaign office on Salt Spring at the moment.
17 03 10 BCer
One of the most interesting ridings to watch in BC. Even before the ascendency of the Greens, this riding had a tendency to be close between the NDP and BC Liberals. In 2013, Gary Holman picked it up for the NDP after the incumbent Liberal retired. Interestingly, he actually lost votes compared to his run in 2009 due to the massive rise of the Greens, who came in a close third, while Holman beat the BC Liberal candidate, Stephen Roberts, by less than 200 votes. Roberts is back again, as is the Green candidate, former Central Saanich councillor Adam Olsen, who is now the deputy leader of the Green Party. This riding has a large number of Seniors and is wealthy and well educated. Both these generally point to a strong place for the Greens. At this point though, I see the Liberals coming up the middle, especially since this is a major target seat for them and they are campaigning VERY heavily.
17 03 07 South Islander
Last election, many Green voters in this riding voted strategically for the NDP to defeat the BC Liberals. They ended up with an NDP MLA and a BC Liberal government, but saw how close they came to getting a Green MLA. I don't think they are going to repeat that mistake. Conversely, no NDP voter would have voted strategically for the Greens in 2013 given how close the NDP came in 2009. This riding has now reelected its Green MP, most recently with a majority of the vote, and is getting used to voting Green. I cannot see the NDP scaring enough voters into voting for them again to hold this riding because they know they can have the opposition MLA that they actually want. The only way this riding doesn't go Green is if the BC Liberals run strong province-wide and local campaigns and manage to sneak up the middle.
17 02 26 Brian A
In another climate, I'd say this seat was ripe for a Green pickup, but in the end this election can be won by only one of two parties. The Greens will do well here without a doubt, but when voters cast their ballot many BC Green supporters will vote NDP to stop Clark. NDP hold.
17 02 26 Griffin
A must win for the BC Greens, so they will be pulling out all the stops. Adam Olsen has a high profile, is an effective communicator, and came a hairs breadth away from taking this seat in 2013. Elizabeth May increased her margin in the federal riding (similar boundaries) which will certainly translate into more Green votes provincially. It will be close, but the BC Greens have some distinct advantages.
17 02 24 Jack Cox
I think Olsen is going to take this seat, the green vote has nearly doubled in latest polls from the last election, the NDP and the Liberals are both down from last time, so this would be one of the seats the greens would gain.
17 02 03 Teddy Boragina
At the time of the 2013 election, the Green Party was still ?new?.
May ha only won her seat 2 years prior, and no provincial Green party had ever won a seat in a general election. Despite that, Adam Olsen was able to nearly win this riding, coming within 1.2% of a victory in a tight 3-way race.
Since then, May has been re-elected, and Weaver became the first provincial Green to win a seat, in a neighbouring riding no less.
The Grees have the edge here..
17 02 02 Nolan O'Brien
The NDP will do better but the Greens are going to go up more so this one will go Green.
17 01 27 Pundit79
I don't believe this riding will be as close as it was last election. Gary Holman will win with a bit of a bigger margin this time around.
17 01 12 Brentwood Resident
This is too close to call between the Greens and the NDP. The Liberals will lose support from 2013 due to their support of the Saanich Inlet LNG and Kinder Morgan. The Greens have a good chance, Adam is a very strong challenger but in the end the incumbent may have the edge. Interesting race to watch!
17 01 12 Bernard von Schulmann
This will likely be the closest three way race in the province again. The favorite has to be Gary Holman because he is the incumbent but Liberal Stephen Roberts has come out of the gate early andsttrong

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