Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Spadina-Fort York

Prediction Changed
2018-06-04 13:03:00

Constituency Profile










   Han Dong

   (93.15% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Toronto Centre
   Hon. Glen Murray

   (6.85% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):82480

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16660 48.30%
6024 17.46%
9216 26.71%
1857 5.38%
OTHERS 739 2.14%
Total Transposed 34496

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed31535

     Toronto Centre

Total Transposed2961

Federal Election Result (2015):

Adam Vaughan
Olivia Chow **
Sabrina Zuniga
Sharon Danley
Michael Nicula PACT/PRCT
Nick Lin


05/06/2018 Jeremy
I benefited from Han Dong's elevator act because I lived in an apartment in the riding which makes elevator contractors liable to fix the elevators within 14 days. This is good thinking because transport inside a building is just as important outside the building. Also, as a young adult, I benefited from the pharmacare plan me being under 25 years old and increased the minimum wage. This really helps with the daily costs!
Han has knocked at my door whereas the other two did not and had a great conversation. I was undecided but if someone comes to my door and knocks, I am more likely to vote for that person because I feel connected with my local candidate. I've also attended the York Quay Residents Association debate and found Han knew how to respond to residents question and had evidence-based answers rather criticizing other parties or putting a political ideological answer.
03/06/2018 Former NDP Organizer
Too bad that so many 'NDPers' think that the own the term progressive. Kathleen Wynne did the honorable thing by admitting that she knew that people did not like her....but ask for the public not to take out their anger on hard working local liberals. She stated the obvious....that she would not be the next premier. If that surprised NDPers then they need to follow the media a little closer....it was not a big secret.
As for Han Dong ....racist comments like ' I only see Han Dong signs in China town' are not only stupid but incorrect. Han has a lot of support throughout the riding....and his signs are everywhere. And for those that think that writing comments on his signs (outside of Chinatown by the way) like 'Hands off my Dong' or 'Ding Dong' or ' Hands full of Dong' are funny....they are not.
A minority government to hold either Rob Ford accountable or more importantly Andrea accountable is why Wynne made her statement yesterday. Think local Vote Local was the message.
We need a local candidate that knows the riding....and knows the local issues. Equally importantly ....a candidate who is able to work with Adam Vaughan to ensure that more affordable housing is built, secure additional funding for transit and secure more support for local social, and arts and cultural organizations.
Neither the NDP candidate nor the PC candidate have any clue of local issues....and should focus on Etobicoke or Markham where they have their natural base of support.
So pontificate all you want....but try not to smoke too much home grown before you start ranting.
02/06/2018 The_A_Man33
The Liberal incumbent hasn't done very much as MPP, nor has he ever campaigned much outside Chinatown. I don't see many of his signs outside Chinatown area either. With the low polling as well. The NDP is well suited to win back this seat.
02/06/2018 A Vancouverite
I'm shocked at how comfortable the admin is to call *anything* for the Liberals at this point, let along this one. CBC has the Libs down to just Ottawa-Vanier, LISPOP has them at 7 but lists this as "safe NDP", and TCTC.ca has the Liberals down to 4 with this riding as safe NDP too with a 13-point margin and 91% certainty of an NDP win. This riding has an extensive NDP history and the only reason it was a Liberal landslide last time is because Wynne stole the NDP's base. There is no way Wynne is holding on to this, she is so unpopular that her claims to be the champion of progressives are dead in the water, making progressive downtown ridings like this easy pickups
31/05/2018 DC
Full disclosure, I am a dipper and proud of it. But this one is very tough to call. It is a strong liberal riding and most people here do seem to like (or at least not dislike) the liberal candidate.
The momentum is with the NDP and Wynne seems to be disliked everywhere, even in these liberal stronghold ridings of Toronto... The only thing I'd say for sure is the conservatives have very little chance here, unless they work hard to get their voters out and the Liberals and NDP split their vote (or have low turnout).
It seems obvious the real race is the Liberals (with their traditionally strong support and a better known, better liked, admittedly stronger candidate) and the NDP (with the momentum, and a much stronger and better liked leader)...
This will be a very interesting one to watch. I have no idea what will happen here and hope the NDP can finally break through in this riding, but it's too close to call. If I had to put money on it though, I'd say I'm 60% sure this is one of the seats the Liberals will manage to hold onto, mostly because of the likability and familiarity of their candidate compared to the 'unknown quantity' NDP candidate who frankly came off as entitled and not very likable. The NDP could finally snag this one though, fingers crossed!
29/05/2018 Kingpin Win
It's true that the Liberals continue to have uniquely strong support in the 416, but that largely has to do with Doug Ford conservatism being so unpopular in the downtown. Fact is, PCs are a nonentity in this riding and 2011 results show that NDP have strong baseline support across the riding. The province wide lead shows that Liberals have little chance here. LISPOP projects as a solid NDP riding.
29/05/2018 Joe
As everyone on this site seems to be aware, NDP hold large advantage in Fort York and has for a long time. The Liberals are being swept, especially here in Toronto and will lose by upwards of 20% to the NDP in this riding.
29/05/2018 Kingpin Win
It's true that the Liberals continue to have uniquely strong support in the 416, but that largely has to do with Doug Ford conservatism being so unpopular in the downtown. Fact is, PCs are a nonentity in this riding and 2011 results show that NDP have strong baseline support across the riding. The province wide lead shows that Liberals have little chance here. LISPOP projects as a solid NDP riding.
LISPOP has this as a solid NDP pick-up - 10%+ lead.
The continuing Liberal call seems a little confusing - from a Liberal perspective, the best that could possibly be said is this is TCTC.
This seat will flip due to the NDP ground game....the momentum is obvious on the ground...
23/05/2018 Danny
I'm surprised by the strength of the NDP campaign here, and while Han Dong is quite likeable, he hasn't exactly been a star. Polling has the NDP up over the Liberals in the 416, and NDP support tends to be concentrated in ridings like this while the Liberals support is more diffuse. This is a very young riding, and polls have been giving the NDP the edge in that demographic too. With the Liberals support falling (but not yet collapsing), have to give the NDP a slight edge here in this too-close-to-call riding.
5/22/2018 Joe
The evidence clearly shows an easy NDP pickup in this riding, it's right at the heart of downtown with many progressive residents. This is a core district and with the help of leftover Chow voters could very well end up NDP this year.
5/22/2018 Westham
I've noted a consistent pattern over the years that NDP supporters believe this area votes NDP because, well, it should. This is wishful thinking. The NDP vote Is stronger north and west of here (Davenport, parkdale). This riding has changed dramatically in the past 20 years. The hispster younger condo vote is reliably Liberal if they show up to vote, and the older voters are no longer reliably NDP. No doubt the liberal majority will decline. There are many more liberal signs up than NDP. The ground war may impact the vote but for now I think this is a Liberal hold.
5/22/2018 The Lobster
I fall somewhere between Dr. Bear and Innocent Bystander here. The polls are continuing to show the NDP with more and more momentum, with the latest Ipsos poll showing them with a plurality of votes across the province. It's difficult to see how that could happen with them still not winning this riding. Granted, this riding has changed and is more Liberal-friendly than it used to be. And the sample size of the Campaign Poll makes it of low (but not no) value. But in this educated riding, I see lots of strategic shift. And let's not forget that the northern and western parts of this riding are naturally NDP-friendly territory.
Han Dong does have a great local presence and *could* buck the trend. I wouldn't be shocked. (The same way the 'little man' inside me believes Arthur Potts could do the same.) But there becomes a point when the trends are too great.
22/05/2018 Bza
This will go NDP in a wave election, which this is starting to feel like. When Olivia Chow won Trinity-Spadina in 2011, this was definitely still the weakest part of her massive win.
That being said, she was still get 30-40% and 40-50% support in this part of the riding. Despite all of the condos and its reputation. There are also a lot of younger voters and other progressive voters that would be willing to switch to NDP.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has NDP up 49 - 28 - 17 on Liberals and PCs in Spadina-Fort York. It's a small sample size, but a 20 point lead is a lot.
This riding will flip...the NDP is putting extra resources into the riding and it will not be one of the 2 to 7 seats the Liberals end up with
20/05/2018 Dork in East York
Even with the Liberals tanking in the polls, I just can't see the NDP appealing to this increasingly wealthy and gentrifying area of the city. This is like St. Paul's but with banal glass condos replacing grande Georgian homes.
20/05/2018 Anthony
The condo effect here is being over exaggerated. I have personally canvased many condos in downtown area and majority of the voters are neither Liberal nor NDP, but anti-Ford and say they are going to vote for whichever party can beat Ford. At the moment that party seems to be the NDP. Also many seat projections have the Liberals under 5 seats, and in that senerio this would not be one of those seats.
19/05/2018 Christopher L
Despite the polls, I just don't see the NDP winning here. This riding has changed too much - it's about as small l liberal as you can get in Canada, and they're not going to vote for a party that wants to seriously raise taxes on wealthy people. If Elliott was the PC leader this riding would be in play for them, but Ford doesn't really appeal to the 'downtown elites' he likes to attack so much. So I'd say Liberal hold, probably with a somewhat reduced majority (maybe 40 Liberals, 30 NDP and 25 PCs)
18/05/2018 Dr. Bear
So the prediction models are showing the NDP taking over 10 seats in Toronto. If that holds true, this would likely be one of them. I think this riding should be listed as TCTC.
17/05/2018 MarkTO
This is a battleground between the NDP and Liberals. Under normal circumstances the Liberals would win, but with the latest polling trends, I predict an NDP pickup.
17/05/2018 MF
With the NDP surge and Liberal collapse, time to revise my prediction. SFY has shown a tendency to swing toward the NDP when it is surging. I think this is a very likely pickup for the NDP.
As progressives realize the path to victory for those who want to stop Ford from becoming Premier this riding will go to the NDP and ti will not be close.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
Yeah ... about my previous comment ... the Liberals have lost more ground.
City-wide, disaffected Liberals look to be breaking to the PCs over the NDP by a 3:2 ratio, which would make this too close to call, in what may be Toronto's closes 3-way race.
06/04/2018 Innocent bystander
Liberal hold ... if they don't lose any more ground. But the only way Han Dong makes Cabinet is if he crosses the floor after the election.
There's a reasonable chance that this will be the Liberal seat closest to Windsor.
23/03/2018 Craig
One of the fastest growing ridings due to the condo craze, they are mostly being occupied by young professionals here in downtown Toronto. Highly educated and urbane, they will strongly reject the PC's - in fact they could finish fourth behind the Greens. Even under a different PC leader they would probably be irrelevant, but with Doug Ford they will be lucky to crack 10%. Wards 20 and 28 (portions of them form this riding) strongly rejected both Ford brothers in 2010 and 2014.
While the NDP are usually on the radar screen here, the gentrification and condo developments have largely removed any working class base, and they still haven't reconnected with social activists. Kathleen Wynne remains reasonably popular here, unlike in most of Ontario, and her agenda is strongly popular here. Hence this should be an easy Liberal hold.
19/03/2018 jeff316
the story here will be whether the PCs can supplant the NDP, because the latter is dead in this riding. If the Liberals hang on will we see Han Dong in Cabinet? The Liberals certainly will be desperate enough.
15/03/2018 MF
A school trustee from Etobicoke was just acclaimed for the NDP nomination.
Spadina-Fort York is winnable for the NDP if there's a surge in the NDP vote in Toronto (for example 2011 federally) but I don't see that happening under Andrea Horwath.
Han Dong may be low profile, but he should be re-elected. Although the PCs can't win this riding, anti-Ford sentiment should also help the Liberals here.
17/03/2018 A.S.
Profile-wise, Han Dong's actually a bit of a nothing, esp. by contrast w/his federal counterpart Adam Vaughan--though in a constituency trending t/w condo anonymity from street-level 'NDP urbanism', it's just as well. In fact, given the galloping condo onslaught, one might easily wonder if we're approaching a moment--or at least were, pre-DoFo--where the PC vote actually stands a chance of surpassing the NDP vote in Spadina-Fort York. The False Creek to University-Rosedale's Point Grey?
05/02/2018 seasaw
This came as a little bit of a surprise to me the last election, didn't expect Marchese to lose here. It came as no surprise to me in the federal election, I expected Adam Vaughan to win big. Han Dong is popular here, however, we have to take the Wynne factor into consideration. If we believe in polls, Wynne is even disliked in 416, her approval is much less than half of what it was in '14, how will that effect the outcome, not sure, I do however believe that Han can win based on his record alone, and his association with Wynne may not play as big of a factor in this riding as it would in others
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Another winnable downtown riding the NDP should have nominated a candidate in a year ago so they could knock doors. I wonder why they are holding out so long? Maybe waiting for Olivia Chow? This seat has become more Liberal demographically in recent times, so I give advantage to Dong.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is my former riding until I moved to BC 8 months ago. Han Dong unlike Rosaria Marchese or Olivia Chow or Adam Vaughan is actually a very good MPP and even invites all of his constituents into conference calls regularly, but like most urban ridings not sure how much impact candidate will have. The NDP could win this, but their strongest part in the north they have lost. Their best shot is to hope the PCs do well in the new high end condos as the PCs have no chance at winning here, but the better they do the more likely an NDP win is as any PC gains will come at the expense of the Liberals.
10/12/2017 ML
This could be one of the safest Liberal seats next election. The modern Liberal Party of Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types - condo dwellers

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