Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-05 16:31:00

Constituency Profile









   Hon Marie-France Lalonde

   (93.90% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Grant Crack

   (5.01% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Lisa MacLeod

   (1.09% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):119247

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

29688 53.26%
18639 33.44%
5034 9.03%
1978 3.55%
OTHERS 406 0.73%
Total Transposed 55745

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed52969


Total Transposed2168


Total Transposed608

Federal Election Result (2015):

Andrew Leslie
Royal Galipeau **
Nancy Tremblay
Raphaël Morin


06/06/2018 Ottawa Voter
With the numbers relatively stagnant on the poll trackers, cautiously optimistic about a Liberal hold in Orleans. In particular, NDP support does not appear to have grown at all and there is no history of Orleans voting NDP to any significant degree (provincially, the high watermark of 10% is not exactly awe inspiring). Completely anecdotally, there are virtually no NDP lawn signs in Orleans (in my neighbourhood, Liberal signs easily outnumber PC signs). Factor in an incumbency advantage and a significant margin in the last election in favour of Marie-France Lalonde, and I think you're going to see a Liberal hold here in Orleans (albeit, by a narrow margin). The only way I see this not occurring is if the NDP somehow manages to draw 18-20% support (which it has never done in Orleans, at any level), eroding the Liberal base enough for the Conservatives to come up the middle.
06/06/2018 Marco Ricci
I had thought when this election began that Marie-France Lalonde might be able to hold on here based on her 20-point win in 2014 and her strong local popularity, particularly with Francophones.
However, it is becoming more difficult to see that. I noticed today along the highway through Orleans that the Lalonde campaign is becoming more worried about losing and has put up multiple road signs listing all the issues/legislation that the Liberals have supported. This could be an indication that Lalonde is in trouble.
Jay Sloan is also correct that this riding has been a bellwether for some time now at both the provincial and federal level. The last time it bucked the trend was in 1995 when Gilles Morin hung on for the Liberals during the first Mike Harris wave. I thought it might be possible for Lalonde to follow in Morin's footsteps, but it's looking more difficult.
04/06/2018 ottawa99
I'm going to cautiously predict a Liberal hold here. CBC's poll tracker has the PCs at 39% in Eastern Ontario, only a 1% increase from 2014. Even if the NDP and Greens do much better than usual here, tough to see the PCs taking this with only 34%. The Liberals also have the added benefit of an incumbent cabinet minister (who was a rookie candidate last time). All that said, if the regional numbers are off, even if only by a bit, or the PCs do better here in relation to the rest of the region than in 2014, this could go PC.
04/06/2018 LFCOttawa
I live in this riding, and the PC's have had a massive swing in support when compared to the last 4 elections. Add a stronger NDP and it's hard to see Montgomery not winning on Thursday.
5/28/2018 bla
So true that whatever party has won the election in the past, they are represented in this riding. Very strong history with this trend. Knowing that the Liberals are so weak in the polls, who is left? The NDP have no presence in Orleans.
In my neighborhood in Orleans, the PC lawn signs outnumber the Liberal signs 3-1. My own street always had multiple Liberal signs in previous elections ... this time there is only one. What's interesting is that ever since the polls began to point to an orange wave in Ontario, I've suddenly seen many NDP signs go up. This can't help the Liberals.
26/05/2018 Marco Ricci
I'm seeing fewer Liberal signs in this riding compared to 2014, and more Conservative signs. Virtually no NDP signs, as usual.
Since Marie-France Lalonde won this riding by 20 points in 2014, she probably can afford to lose some votes this year before she's in danger. The fact that this is one of the weakest ridings for the NDP in Ontario probably also helps Lalonde.
We'll have to see how things develop in the remaining 2 weeks of the race, but for now I think Lalonde may have a chance of hanging on.
07/05/2018 Jay Sloan
Orleans is your quintessential bellwether riding. It has gone the way of the party that forms government in every single federal election since 1993 (93, 97, 00, 04, 06, 08, 11, 15) and every single provincial election since 1999 (99, 03, 07, 11, 14). With the anglophone population crowding out the traditional francophone liberal-supporting population more and more with each passing year, the Franco-Ontario vote counts for less and less. MF Lalonde seems to be well-liked but she's not a political powerhouse. Expect this to go whichever way the province goes. If the current trends are correct, Cameron Montgomery will be the next MPP.
05/05/2018 A.S.
Unlike backbench predecessor Phil McNeely, Lalonde's hit the ground running in cabinet; and hers is the kind of longtime-Lib-stronghold seat that returned to the fold big time after flirting determinedly if dicily with Con-petitiveness--at least, federally speaking. But in the present provincial climate, the PC spark remains altogether active--Orleans is too inherently affluent-suburban for it to be otherwise; somewhat like a Halton Region seat with a Franco-Ontarian tinge. Remember that the Tories made serious (if doomed) bids with Graham Fox and Andrew Lister in 2007/11/14; there's no way they're letting go now...
20/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberal's bounce in support after the budget has turned into a rout - a ten point lead over the NDP for second in the regional polls has become a five point deficit.
But I think Orleans is too suburban, and the NDP too far behind at the start, to overtake the Tories.
04/04/2018 cliff
Historically, Liberal candidates in the Orleans & Vanier ridings have very seldom lost to other parties. The outcome of this election on the surface appears to be no different based on local news media & neigbourhood discussions.
07/02/2018 Craig
It is true that the federal Conservatives held this seat for nearly a decade, but they did so marginally and even then the Liberals still had a solid base of about 35-40% of the vote. Many civil servants have moved out here lately and the population continues to blossom, which makes it an easier Liberal target.
That combination should keep the Liberals solidly in control in Orleans, even if they lose province-wide. There is still enough anger from Harper (and Harris) here that I don't think they will overcome it anytime soon, even if the provincial Liberals are unpopular overall. Lalonde should be safe, whether she ends up still in government or in opposition.
17/12/2017 M. Lunn
Up until the late 90s this was a very safe Liberal riding both federally and provincially with its large Francophone population. From the 90s until the most recent federal and provincial election, this was usually a very close one with it going for whichever party formed government, but usually no more than 10 points separating the two parties. The last federal and provincial election bucked this trend with Liberals winning massively so tough to say if this now becoming a safe one like Ottawa-Vanier or still remains a swing one. I can see the Liberals holding this and losing provincially whereas I cannot see the PCs picking this up and not going on to form government.
16/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Too early to call.
The most francophone of any of Ontario's suburban ridings, and the Liberals do a little better here than they otherwise would because of that.
But at the moment they're polling a very distant third in Eastern Ontario. If they don't pass the NDP in the regional polls before the election, Orleans probably goes back to the Tories.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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