Election Prediction Project

Cape Breton-Canso
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:28:40

Constituency Profile


Dockrill, Michelle

Doucet, Clive

Joyce, Billy

Kelloway, Mike

LeBlanc, Darlene Lynn

MacLeod, Alfie

Suitor, Laurie


Rodger Cuzner

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



8752.81 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rodger Cuzner ** 3216374.40%
Adam Daniel Rodgers 624614.40%
Michelle Smith 35478.20%
Maria Goretti Coady 12813.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Cape Breton-Canso
   (90.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Central Nova
   (9.05% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
I'm calling an upset here of sorts. Alfie Macleod's been a provincial MLA for the area for a long time. No Liberal incumbent and the new Liberal candidate is a bit weak. I think Macleod will win here and be among the 1st non Liberal MP's for the CPC.
09/10/19 CaperPoli
As someone else said, Caper Jeff's prediction is wildly off base. First, Kelloway is FAR from 'the strongest possible candidate'. He is not well known, and is virtually invisible. Alfie MacLeod is NOT ‘a man named Alfie MacLeod who nobody in the riding even knows’... he is the longtime MLA in the riding, and has won four consecutive provincial elections. Everyone in the riding knows him by his first name. That may not be enough to take the riding (my riding; he lost me though running for CPC), but if anyone can, it's him. If it goes Lib it will be because of habit, not because of the candidate.
06/10/19 Armchair Pundit
The Conservatives will have a good chance of picking this riding up. A popular MLA running for them, and Cuzner retiring, combined with an unpopular provincial government will tighten this race up, considerably. Reluctance towards Scheer and a historical Liberal base may be enough for a Liberal hold, but this one won't be called after the first few polls close, that's for sure.
25/09/19 Canso Resident
@CaperJeff...you cant live in CB-Canso if you believe that residents dont know Alfie. Alfie's provincial riding of Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg is 90% in CB-Canso. I have seen signs for Alfie in Reserve, Glace Bay, Marion Bridge, St.Peters and beyond. Mike Kelloway has been invisible thus far and Alfie has a BIG head start. The liberals should be worried about this riding. Andrew Scheer has already visited meaning the cons think this obe can turn
23/09/19 Mubs
The cons are targeting both Cape Breton ridings hard. It seems that considering past results it may be a waste of party money or it may mean that their internal polls show something different for these ridings than the overall regional numbers.
22/09/19 CaperJeff
So here is how it goes in Cape Breton-Canso. Always a safe Liberal seat, and the Liberals are running the strongest possible candidate. The Conservatives have little support in Cape Breton, and are running a man named Alfie MacLeod who nobody in the riding even knows. The NDP is a different story all together, can't even find a candidate. Pretty obvious that the Liberals are headed for a huge landslide once again.
11/09/19 R.O.
No liberal incumbent and a cpc candidate who had been a provincial mla , have a feeling the race here will be much close than 2015 . true the federal conservatives have not won a seat in Cape Breton for some time but a lot of the provincial ridings are now pc so perhaps the areas political leanings are shifting .
08/09/19 A.S.
For perspective on how a seat like this could be vulnerable, consider that David Dingwall won with over 78% of the vote in 1993...and lost to the NDP in 1997. And unlike 1997, we have an open seat here; and Alfie MacLeod is a far stronger candidate than Michelle Dockrill was. So all that plus the premier's unpopularity ought, on paper, to make this Con-amenable...but there's no evidence that, federally speaking, Justin's as locally loathed as Chretien (and Dingwall) was in '97. Plus, in the provincial election to replace Alfie, the Tory vote took a 25-point dip and the Libs gained ground; so, there goes the conventional wisdom about Premier McNeil being electorally toxic...
01/09/19 CaperPoli
Yes, this HAS been a safe Liberal riding, but people are really underestimating Alfie MacLeod (and Eddie Orrell). If Rodger was running, yes, I would call it safe. He's not, and the new candidate has very little recognition or support, and only barely won his nomination by a handful of votes. Alfie is respected, and has been a great constituency MLA for his four consecutive terms. Based on what people are telling me, this one is, I think, up in the air. If Rodger was running, no. If a better LPC candidate, no. But as it is......? I'm checking CPC just to introduce that wild card element.
22/06/19 Sam
Either all of EPP or Alfie McLeod has misjudged this completely, and I'd come down on our side. This riding did not only vote over 70% Liberal, but in terms of the whole electorate, Rodger Cuzner won a majority of all electors, not just those who turned out. His retirement will dent the Liberal margin here, but I reckon the Liberals can still get over 50%.
17/06/19 Laurence Putnam
A Very strong Liberal seat once represented by Liberal luminaries like Allan MacEachern and that most honest of Liberal Cabinet Ministers, David Dingwall who was shamelessly proud to declare: ‘I am entitled to my entitlements.’
Only a highly organized NDP effort, matched by a strong national campaign could dislodge the Liberals from this seat. The Tories would need to run the ghost of Robert Stanfield and get a 1958 or 1984 style landslide. So that won't happen.
02/06/19 seasaw
Roger Cuzner or not, it will be a very tough task to overcome the Liberal strength in this riding, especially with the NDP polling so low.
26/05/19 Nowhere Man
I just realized that this will be the first time that no incumbent will be on the ballot for this area since 1974. Donald MacInnis who was the last Tory MP in this area did not re-offer in that election. Here is a list of the incumbent in each election since.
Rodger Cuzner (Liberal): 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2015
Michelle Dockrill (NDP): 2000
David Dingwall (Liberal): 1984, 1988, 1993, 1997
Andrew Hogan (NDP): 1979, 1980
15/05/19 Craig
Sure, Rodger Cuzner is retiring, but it won't matter. Cape Breton-Canso has long been one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada. Even in 2011, Cuzner won fairly easily, while in 2015 it was a 60-point blowout. With those kind of margins, the real election will be in the LPC nomination meeting.
Like next door in Sydney-Victoria, the mainly rural/small town and working class demographics would suggest this would be a Conservative riding (or Conservative-NDP battleground). However, Nova Scotia tends to march to a different tune with populism not well liked here and old habits die hard. For that reason, even with an open seat, the Liberals should win again very easily here. If this swings blue or orange, the LPC will be heading for Kim Campbell territory...
27/04/19 Nowhere Man
Rodger Cuzner is not running in the next election. Also, Alfie Macleod who is a popular local MLA might run as a Conservative in this riding. If the Liberals pick an largely unknown person the results will be much closer than last time.
27/04/19 Sam
Turns out Cuzner is stepping down; he'll be a loss to the House. Nevertheless, this a Liberal stronghold and they'll win again.
17/04/19 Craig
I wouldn't put too much into the fact that the Nova Scotia PC's won here in 2017. Unlike in most other provinces, they are very much Red Tories and much closer to the federal Liberals. Cape Breton has been a Liberal fortress for decades and there is no reason why it won't continue to be in 2019.
Sure, this is a largely rural and working class riding, but populism has never sold well in Nova Scotia. The fact that Rodger Cuzner won by 60 points in 2015 would make it nearly impossible to overcome. SNC-Lavalin should barely put a dent into the vote here. With Red Toryism pretty much dead in national conservative parties, the Liberals are made in the shade...
This seat was the Liberals 4th best seat nationwide in 2015. Definitely a safe seat for the Liberals this year.
07/03/19 MF
This is now one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, don't see SNC-Lavalin tanking the Liberals in Cape Breton.
24/02/19 Sam
Probably the Nova Scotia riding Liberals can be most confident about, given the fact Rodger Cuzner, a longtime incumbent is running for re-election in a seat that was over 70% Liberal in 2015. It was one of the first to be called on election night and it should be again.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Even though this area went PC provincially, it is solidly Liberal federally so whether Cuzner runs or not, I expect the Liberals to hold this one.

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