Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:41:39

Constituency Profile


Bergeron, Stéphane

Lavallée, Julie

Pelland, Jean-Charles

Picard, Michel

Sauvageau, Julie

Sellah, Djaouida

Thibault-Vincent, Thomas


Michel Picard

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



150.68 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Michel Picard 1884832.50%
Catherine Fournier 1646028.40%
Djaouida Sellah ** 1429624.70%
Stéphane Duranleau 628410.90%
Olivier Adam 13882.40%
Claude Leclair 6411.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 9591.84%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (50.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Verchères-Les Patriotes
   (31.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (17.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
The Bloc are running a former MP and MNA here. That as well as the surge should equal a BQ win here on Monday.
17/10/19 Sam
This was always a decent area for the Bloc. Having found a candidate, Stephane Bergeron, who can build on what worked last time, where Catherine Fournier was the candidate, this was always in play, well before the surge; they were evidently heavily targeting this. Now, with that surge, this is looking to be one of the easier pickups for the Bloc, with a four point margin looking very shaky in the surge.
09/10/19 J.F. Breton
Circonscription voisine de celle du chef du Bloc. Stéphane Bergeron, ancien député bloquiste du coin, et ancien député et ministre du Parti Québécois est bien connu. Avec la progression du vote bloquiste chez les francophones, gain dans cette région nationaliste du 450.
05/09/19 A.S.
With Bergeron running here and the leader next door, it seems like this is the patch which the Bloc's most dedicated to reclaiming--and unlike Beloeil-Chambly, Montarville's got the tougher nut of Liberal incumbency to overthrow. Perhaps bolstering their hopes is that 2015 Lib support was quite concentrated within Saint-Bruno, while Saints Basile and Julie favoured the Bloc--and it's the latter which Bergeron represented provincially, so he's not *quite* a parachute here, even if it was actually the more ADQ-leaning end of his former riding...
10/06/19 J.F. Breton
Stéphane Bergeron, former Bloc Québécois MP, from 1993 to 2005 in Verchères-Les Patriotes, will be candidate in Montarville. It will be an interesting race. BQ possible win.
Source: https://www.journaldequebec.com/2019/06/05/stephane-bergeron-se-presentera-pour-le-bloc-quebecois-aux-prochaines-elections-federales
08/03/19 Sam
One of the few vulnerable Liberal ridings in Quebec, with the Bloc close behind. They may not have as good a candidate as Catherine Fournier this time but there is a lot of NDP vote which will decide this. The Liberals could definitely win again but this is not yet certain.

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