Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:38:26

Constituency Profile


Abbatiello, Luca

Bonsaint, Mathieu

Gagnon, David-Roger

Gaudet, Marie-Claude

Godin, Joël

Talbot, Annie


Joël Godin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7205.33 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Joël Godin 2729044.00%
Élaine Michaud ** 1368622.10%
David Gauvin 1332221.50%
Raymond Harvey 666510.70%
Johanne Morin 10961.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1459427.82%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
A riding that dates back to 1867, I think the CPC hold on here in 2019.
16/10/19 R.O.
Joel Godin was first elected in 2015 and was first election the cpc won this riding in recent years. however it had an independent mp from 2006-2011 who was essentially a conservative mp and in 2008 the cpc didn’t even run a candidate against him. This riding last voted for the bloc in 2004 although they came very close in 2008.
18/09/19 J.F. Breton
Joël Godin in very good position. Mainstreet Poll:
- Conservatives (48%)
- Liberals (22%)
- Bloc (12%)
- Greens (7%)
- PPC (4%)
- NDP (3,5%)
Source: https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-les-conservateurs-bien-en-selle-dans-portneufjacques-cartier-6b87b89a8c7d6ea7ba4e98bd2db407b5
07/09/19 A.S.
The archetypal right-populist seat in QC, even more so than Beauce (which is really more ‘libertarian’ than ‘populist’)--it only avoided going Con during the Harper years because it did them one better with indy radio show host Andre Arthur. *Finally* it went Con in 2015--and with more votes than Lib & NDP put together. It just fits the narrative that Godin found himself with a controversial ‘star’ PPC opponent in the form of union-leader-turned-conspiracy-theorist Ken Pereira--though in the end, Pereira had to withdraw due to family reasons...
19/04/19 Sam
A good riding for the Conservatives these days, although Godin doesn't have the profile of Andre Arthur (for better or worse), the Conservative strength here and the absence of any challenging party.
06/04/19 Legolas
As with the other suburban Quebec City seats, the Conservatives won them by decent margins in 2015 and there is no way they are losing them while polling even better for this election.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
Easy gain for PCC in Capitale-Nationale area. Joel Godin will easily have the support of the CAQ’s members. Same DNA.

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