Arnold, Jonathan
	Davidson, Scot
	Komar, Keith
	Lotter, Michael
	McLean, Jessa
	Wesley-Esquimaux, Cynthia
Incumbent:
	Scot Davidson

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			104010 94616 39306 36405 791.32 km² 131.4/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Peter Van Loan **	24058	50.20%
	Shaun Tanaka	18083	37.80%
	Sylvia Gerl	4255	8.90%
	Mark Viitala	1483	3.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		24623	63.66%
		7187	18.58%
		4384	11.33%
		2073	5.36%
Other		408	1.05%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
York-Simcoe    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Caroline Mulroney	26050	57.26%
	Dave Szollosy	10655	23.42%
	Loralea Carruthers	6182	13.59%
	Alexandra S. Zalucky	2195	4.83%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		12085	35.21%
		13768	40.11%
		6034	17.58%
		2132	6.21%
Other		304	0.89%

	20/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
Went CPC in the by-election, I think they keep it in the general.
	16/09/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
The cpc easily held the riding in the by election , Shaun Tanaka after 2 runs decided to not run again for the liberals , leaving them with a new candidate who ran for them in 2011.
	08/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
*I* can see the Cons getting less than 50%--but only because the last election and byelection wasn't terribly much above 50% (well, 53.9% isn't "terribly much", especially at the Lib-crippling apogee of the SNC-Lavalin scandal), and that was all before the Ford backlash really set in, and there's still a chance of regular-election PPC bottom-feeding, etc. Of course, that doesn't mean they won't win handily anyhow--in fact, I wonder if Caroline Mulroney's quietly wishing she could change places...
	23/06/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
Even in their bad year, the Tories managed to get over 50% here, so unless there's huge implosion, I don't expect them to get anything less than 50%.
	06/04/19	Sam 86.188.96.179
I expect Scot Davidson to repeat his recent by-election victory.
	27/02/19	Lolitha 67.193.124.253
Was an easy byelection win so most likely to remain Conservative. Sent:
	27/02/19	M. Lunn 174.7.100.252
Conservatives won this handidly in the by-election so unlikely in 8 months even with a stronger turnout the Liberals can overturn a 25 point margin.
	24/02/19	M. Lunn 174.7.100.252
Only in the 90s when the right was split did this go Liberal. This was one of five ridings the Tories got over 50% in 2015 and has consistently been in their top 10 best showings in Ontario both federally and provincially so I expect them to easily hold this both on Feburary 25, 2019 and October 21, 2019.