Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-14 14:17:42

Constituency Profile


Anonsen, Anne Marie

Hogan, Linda

Rogers, Churence

Vokey, Sharon


Churence Rogers

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16806.97 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Churence Rogers ** 1470745.70%
Sharon Vokey 1269739.50%
Matthew Cooper 385512.00%
Kelsey Reichel 9202.90%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Judy M. Foote ** 2870481.80%
Mike Windsor 353410.10%
Jenn Brown 25577.30%
Tyler John Colbourne 2970.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 660.21%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Random-Burin-St. George's
   (41.75% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
   (36.22% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (22.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/09/21 Bob
Freeland and Regan were here yesterday. Both parties think it's close but I'm going to stick my neck here and say CPC gain. Churence is easily the least popular member of the Liberal 6.
17/09/21 LD
I'm going to be bold; I'd rather take the chance here and be right than take the easy prediction and be wrong. Vokey has continued a very strong campaign across the district and appears to have gathered quite a bit of support behind her. Meanwhile, Rogers continues to receive criticism for his supposed silence in Ottawa, as well as his voting record as a MP. Of all the current NL MPs, I think I've seen the most anger directed towards Rogers over anyone else. The Rogers campaign has begun releasing verbal endorsements, from local residents and provincial politicians, talking about how well he's performed to date. This is a stark contrast to his previous campaign, where he merely knocked on a few doors and took a few pictures as most shoe-in politicians do. This tells me that he knows he could be in trouble. This district was close in 2019, and also returned a number of provincial PC MHA's despite the NL PCs low polling numbers during the provincial campaign, plus a number of those PC MHA's have endorsed Vokey. I think this will end up being extremely close no matter the winner, but I'm going to go bold and say Vokey wins this one.
11/09/21 George Knox
Mainstreet has a strong liberal lead here, high undecided.
06/09/21 Physastr Master
The last polling updates in NL and NS have been very bad for the Liberals to put it mildly, and 338 now has the conservatives ahead here. Do I believe it? Maybe. This was close last time and O'Toole is more a PC type that plays better in Atlantic Canada. I say TCTC here.
04/09/21 Terry K
I think there is a strong chance for this riding to flip. Conservative support is surging in this region, while Trudeau's Liberals are quickly falling out of favour. N.D.P support is also growing, which will eat away at Liberal's narrow lead in Bonavista.
03/09/21 LD
This is the riding where I grew up, and the real surprise from the 2019 election. Before that election this seat flipping was my ‘bold’ prediction (though not submitted to this website), even though every pundit was predicting a massive blowout. It’s been interesting to see how the general sentiment among a lot of voters in the riding has changed over the years. Vokey is running again, and once again appears to be running a very good ground campaign. I could certainly give another bold prediction and say that this seat flips, but at this point in the campaign this falls under a toss-up. If word on the ground, as well as general polling, remains positive for the Conservatives I could very well change this prediction.
25/08/21 C B
Was one of the somewhat surprising results of 2019 for me. I had thought that NL & LAB had turned into somewhat of a Conservative wasteland. Conservative candidate is back for a rematch. If the Liberals drop any more in Atlantic Canada, this could be interesting.
23/08/21 R.O.
This riding was way closer in 2019 than anyone predicted and Sharon Vokey is back as the cpc candidate . does seem like a liberal riding on paper but rural newfoundland has more of a pc/tory tradition than people realise and a lot of the provincial ridings here are pc . like to see how the race develops out east before making a solid prediction here.
19/08/21 A.S.
Well, it nearly happened again, much as it did in the 90s: the Burin seat shifting from an 80%+ landslide to the brink of defeat--such is the quirk of Newfie-style election-by-election politics. All the same, the *natural* condition hereabouts is Liberal; and when breakneck shifts like that happen in N&L, the following election's likelier to be a ‘corrective’ than a finishing-off. So, according to that pattern, '19 was a blip, like some kind of sudden Con power surge before returning to normal. Or, it might not be; but right now, I'm not betting on it...
05/08/21 Thomas K
I wouldn't count on a Liberal hold here yet. The degree of the swing between 2015 and 2019 was quite astonishing, and it doesn't appear that the Liberals are extremely popular in NL right now. I would say it's leaning Liberal right now, but that could easily change upon the drop of the writ.
13/06/21 J.F. Breton
Une des seules luttes intéressantes en 2019 entre les Libéraux et les Conservateurs à Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador. Sans doute la circonscription le plus compétitive pour les bleus, mais ce ne sera pas suffisant pour l'emporter. Je mise sur une victoire libérale, comme partout ailleurs dans cette province.
11/06/21 VanIsler
Liberal hold, although the Tories could get competitive if they pick up in Atlantic Canada.

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