|Mainstreet of September 10 has a healthy Bloc lead with 38% of decided. |
Then 18 Lib 15 NDP 15 Con.
|It appears that the Bloc has garnered some momentum after the English debates and after Legault's (tepid and half-hearted) endorsement of them and the Tories. |
Meanwhile, there doesn't seem to be any momentum for the NDP in Quebec and some polls show they are sliding a bit since the debates.
Ruth Ellen Brosseau is clearly popular in her community. But I'm not sure if it's enough to defeat a BQ incumbent in a BQ friendly environment.
|Given the loss of REB's incumbency (even if she is running, I expect some loss with Perron being a strong advocate for farmers), plus the Bloc being reenergised, particularly in these very strong CAQ/PQ areas (especially the area overlapping with the Berthier provincial riding. And that spells doom for REB's victory path - given the 2015 result most tactical voters for her probably already did so, and her path then relies on the Bloc losing ground. Possible, but looking increasingly unlikely.|
|Brosseau will keep the NDP vote at around 25%, rather than the 10% it would have been without her candidacy. She's the Youpii of Québec politics.|
|Ruth is back for the NDP and suddenly this race has gotten interesting. The BQ have been a little flaccid lately in their support, and while the NDP have few chances of gains in Quebec, REB has polled better locally than her party provincially. Coupled that with Federalist voters supporting her over the paper candidates their preferred party is offering and suddenly this seat is getting a slight tinge of orange.|
|Former NDP MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau announced today that she is running to win back this seat. Perhaps the riding should be moved to TCTC?|
|REB is in the race this will likely be TCTC until close to election day |
|Ruth Ellen Brosseau just announced she is running. Without her this would return to a strong BQ result like the rest of the region, with her this should be close again, and even a subtle national surge would tip it her way. TCTC.|
|This has typically been a bloc quebecois riding and mp Yves Parron is running for re election although had been ndp from 2011-15 when Ruth Ellen Brosseau mp. She just announced today she’s running in this election as a candidate for the ndp she came a reasonably close second in 2019.|
|I'm hearing talk of REB being back--which of course, would be no guarantee of her being *electorally* back; even so, it'd be interesting to monitor. But there's also no guarantee of a REB-less NDP being reduced to single-digits 4th, though to pull away from that low threshold might require Jagmeet wowing'em on Tout Le Monde A Parle (which isn't out of the question). And if that happened *with* REB running, it'd *really* burnish her comeback-kid credentials. But because we're not at that stage (yet?), best to abide by the predictable--particularly as w/o REB, the seat would probably have been pretty solidly Bloc, anyway...|
|I suppose, given Quebec's erratic electoral history, it was only a matter of time before Ruth Ellen lost. With her gone, I expect the NDP to drop to 4th place and possibly under 10% share.|
|Without Brousseau this should be unquestionably in the BQ column. NPD vote will be lucky to crack double digits this time.|
|Sans le retour de Ruth pour le NPD, le Bloc court peu de risque ici. Le député en place ne pourra qu'accroître sa majorité.|