||Hammer (the other one)|
|I have this as the one and only NDP pick up in Toronto. Provincially, the Liberals seem stable compared to 2019, while the NDP are up a point or two. I believe this NDP improvement in the polls, and strong mobilization and visibility for the Bravo campaign, will get the Dippers over the hump. My final prediction is the NDP winning Davenport by a nose.|
|This one will be close, but I do believe the NDP will eek this one out. Bravo ran (although unsuccessfully) for city council in the area and narrowly lost. She's known in the community and her ground game will be competitive.|
|Dzerowicz will hold with a larger margin. An absolutely crushing blow to the NDP who need to lose the north end of Davenport in exchange for the west end of St. Paul's to eventually win this federally.|
|The NDP is at 20%-ish in Ontario. This was one of their closest losses in Ontario last time around.|
|In Davenport centre, St.Clair and Old Weston Rd. to Davenport Rd. all the way west, the signs count is 25 for Dzerowicz, 25 for Bravo and 1 for Dos Remedios. The Blackthorn and Silverthorn/ Osler area is more NDP now. The Liberal numbers are still holding at 31-34% so this is going to be close. |
Back in the day, the Conservatives used to sweep all Toronto ridings the majority of elections from Confederation 1867 to about the 1949 election (post-WW2). The Liberals only was able to win downtown ridings such as Trinity, in 1935 and 1940 to stop the sweeps by the Tories. It wasn't until 1949 we saw more Liberals being elected in Toronto and now today it is Liberals sweeping all Toronto ridings.
Davenport been redistributed a number of times during this period. It used to be called York South/York West in the early 1900s and in the 1910s, which changed to be called later the Toronto West and then Toronto North West in the 1920s and early 1930s. In 1935, we finally see a riding called 'Davenport' established which was a rectangle thin riding that was very British and always a battle between Conservatives and Liberals till the late 50s. The riding of Davenport was from Rogers Rd. in the North to Lake Ontario to the South. From the West Lansdowne ave. to the West and Dovercourt Rd. to the East.
The first Liberal MP ever for Davenport, Paul Hellyer 1949-1957 only recently passed away last month at age 98.
This thin rectangular shaped riding stayed with later MP's coming along being elected such as Douglas Morton 1957-62 (Conservative) and Walter L. Gordon 1962-68.
Charles Caccia one of the longest serving MPs in the history of Canada held this riding of Davenport from the late 60s to early 2000s. The riding changed a lot from this beginning days as MP to his final days of becoming a Independent in 03-04. In 1968-74 the riding was a square shaped riding from Rogers Rd. to Bloor. In 1979 it changed again and became what we know as Davenport North borders today. The 1979-84 the shape of the riding looked similar to a swastika or boomerang
from Eglinton in the North to Dupont st. train tracks to the south. The CPR train tracks near Old Weston Rd in the West to Christie St. and Vaughan Rd. in the East.
Davenport South as we know it today, was known as the old riding of Trinity (1979-84) held by MP Aideen Nicholson (1974 to 1988) before it all got redistributed again.
We finally get to see the arrow shaped riding, what many residents are used to, in 1988 when the borders became Rogers Rd. in the North, CPR tracks to the West, Ossington in the East to Queen St, Sudbury st. to the South.
In 1997 there was an addition of Eglinton to Rogers Rd to Dufferin St. Basically the rest of Prospect Cemetery area to be included into Davenport.
In 2004, as small addition of Trinity Spadina riding was added to Davenport from Dupont in the North to Dundas St to the South, and Dovercourt Rd. in the West to Ossington ave. To the East.
In the 2010's and 2020's been a tight battle between the Liberals and NDP.
|Another GTA-specific poll has come out, this time from Nanos, showing not just the same things as Campaign and Mainstreet, but an even bigger 20 point lead over the CPC. They, like the others are also confirming that the NDP aren't making any inroads in Toronto vs the 2019 election. The NDP's growth in Ontario is everywhere but the GTA. As such, I predict the Liberals will continue to hold Davenport after Monday night. https://www.cp24.com/news/housing-continues-to-top-covid-19-as-key-ballot-box-issue-for-gta-voters-poll-1.5586585|
|This may be a bit of a weird call for me given that I REALLY do not want the Liberals to win this, but I'm concerned about the PPC surge here and think that in young urban ridings like this it could really hurt the NDP. The PPC has seen enormous growth among young people and it has chipped away at what used to be a sizable NDP lead in that demographic. In most places the Conservatives will be hurt the most by the PPC, but here, in a Liberal-NDP battle, I suspect next to no Trudeau voters will go PPC, but many NDP voters might. I still think it will be close and this prediction is relying on my interpretation of the situation from my Essex post, but I have a suspicion that places like this might see the NDP underperform polls, while more rural and working-class places with an NDP-Conservative battle could see the NDP overperform by comparison.|
|The race is close enough, and the polls down enough for the Liberals to convince me that this seat will flip to the NDP. The only one to do so in Toronto.|
|Liberals been surging in the polls after the debate and the GTA/416 numbers are still strong for the Grits. There are more signs for Julie in the Northern end of Davenport. The Caledonia/Fairbank, St. Clair Village, Northcliffe Village, Oakwood Vaughan, York/Eglinton generally sways Liberal. Some of these voters are now, 2nd or 3rd generation immigrant Canadian voters and continues to support the Liberals, just as their Parents or Grandparents did. However, the Conservatives and Peoples Party of Canada is doing good among these neighbourhoods. A good portion of the Northern end of Davenport voted conservative provincially and federally the past few elections. If the conservatives actually ran a stronger candidate and had some ground game, such as canvassed each door of this riding (they rarely do) Davenport could become a three-way party race in the future. Greens are going to be losing some votes in this riding, some of those voters are going to probably swing Liberal. It will be interesting to see how much increase in support for the People's Party is going to get here because they are surging as well. The People's Party is polling at anywhere from 5%-10% and some have them at closing in on 15%. If this is accurate, the PPC is going to steal votes from both Liberals and NDP. The NDP and Liberals are about even in signs in the Central end of Davenport. Central Davenport is critical for both Dzerowicz and Bravo because the true battleground polls is usually around the streets and neighbourhoods of Central Davenport (Osler-Pelham, Symington-Dupont, Foundry, Lansdowne-Davenport, Dufferin-Dovercourt to Ossington-Dupont). These polls usually sway the riding and gives the edge to the candidate in this fight for the riding. Since the Northern Polls and Southern Polls cancel each other out, the Central region swing polls will decide the winner on election night. The NDP seems to be ahead in signs in the Southern End of Davenport (Junction Triangle, Dufferin grove, Dovercourt Park). The Liberals slightly leading in the Margueretta-Brockton Village area. The NDP is winning some streets in the Beaconsfield area but not by much. The Little Portugal poll is in a dead heat between the Liberals and NDP. This riding does have a few condos in the Southern Tip towards Queen/Liberty Village area, that sways Liberal. There is new housing built and sprinkled throughout Davenport, that generally swings Liberal or Conservative. The newer your house is, the voters/homeowners generally swing Liberal or Conservative. If you live in a older housing, you swing slightly more progressive. The Foundry Lofts, and Lansdowne and Dupont has a few new high rise buildings condos that may vote for Dzerowicz. The area has cleaned up a bit in recent years. However, it is still mixed in with the old, slum like, dilapidated few buildings with strange, addicted-mentally ill individuals, low-income tenants that sometimes still frequent & live in the area.|
|As the campaign heads to its final week, I think this will be the only NDP pick up in the 416. It was very close in 2019 and the NDP is having a better campaign this time around. |
Julie Dzerowicz does not seem to have any personal popularity in this riding unlike Julie Dabrusin in Toronto Danforth.
|Regarding the 18% lead -- it would still represent a drop of 7 points from last time, which would be enough for an NDP flip. Not saying they will, but...|
|Campaign Research just released an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals with a huge 18% lead in Toronto proper. With a lead like that, none of the 416 ridings are at risk of flipping. This is also almost unchanged (within the MoE) from the earlier Mainstreet GTA poll. Davenport = Liberal hold. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gPhJAfKBRyjFuqdZXPBE_KxOuT9qM4Mh/view|
|Unless the Liberal voters stay home, it will go liberal again.|
|338 currently has the NDP polling up here, with a 63% chance of winning. This is a heavily progressive riding which seems to have soured against the Liberal brand and looks to be flipping this September.|
|The question isn't can the NDP gain 1500 votes to squeak this out. It's will the old stock Europeans in the redder-than-red north end (that bring home Davenport year after year from the Liberals) send enough votes to O'Toole to let the NDP squeak in? They might. But I'm not convinced.|
The question here is who loses votes to whom? The NDP will lose votes to the Liberals. With Andrew Cash out of the picture, there is no incumbency return factor. The NDP is running failed council candidate and perennial local lefty Alejandra Bravo. She's not a local draw beyond people that were going to vote NDP anyway.
The Liberals will lose votes to the Conservatives. Dzerowicz is so anonymous, people only know her face from her lawn signs and the fact that someone rents the storefront beside her constit office solely to protest against her ineffectiveness. She is no draw either.
The Conservatives aren't a factor in terms of winning but they'll garner more votes now that they're running your friendly neighbour as party leader, rather than the creepy one that you don't quite trust.
Davenport is fascinating.
|The youth vote started an LPC-NDP migration in 2019, and it seems that trend is only continuing. The NDP may not have Andrew Cash, but Alejandra Bravo is a pretty strong candidate too. As the old-school Italian/Portuguese Liberal vote gets diluted by a more NDP-friendly, young, artsy/hipster type demographic, and Singh's NDP appeals particularly well with that demographic, along with a lot of Liberal disillusionment, I think the NDP will win this one back.|
|NDP has a significant presence in this area and only need ~1000 votes to flip. |
The Ontario NDP's relatively high-profile MPP Marit Stiles has generated positive association and good will for the NDP ‘brand’ in this riding.
Meanwhile, the incumbent federal Liberal MP is borderline anonymous. Not in Cabinet, not a parlsec, no major roles assigned by government.
On walks through the riding, NDP signs outnumber Liberal signs 3:5. This is definitely a very left wing riding and open to voting NDP as it has provincially. It likely that most Liberal voters can be swayed to NDP.
As such, this riding swings in the NDP's favour. Good associations with provincial rep and poor performance of Trudeau nationally can easily sway the 1000 votes needed to swing the riding.
|The 4 ridings the NDP always try to win are Beaches, Danforth, Spadina and Parkdale-High Park.|
But this is really the riding to for NDP to win.
The riding has NOT been overwhelmed with condos. So it hasn’t had the suburban voting habit condo dwellers to water down the vote.
The issue for the NDP at Davenport is if they can get the volunteers, if volunteers from Spadina (where many activist live) just move over to volunteer time at Davenport to get out the vote.
|Careful with those Mainstreet polls, they skewed a lot of predictions last election (e.g. see Edmonton-Strathcona NDP third in polls, comfortable NDP win on election day). This was on a knife-edge last election and the NDP are up in Ontario (although probably less so in the GTA than elsewhere). This would seem to favor the NDP right now, although I think this site's reluctance to call it is appropriate.|
|A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding lead at 50% support in the 416. I think this is a Liberal hold with a bit bigger margin of victory vs 2019. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077|
|Alejandra Bravo is an impressive candidate who has been steadily building her presence in the community. Along with the NDP's good numbers in Ontario, I see a good chance of this flipping to the NDP.|
|Three months after my first prediction, I still have this as a toss up. The NDP only needs to flip 700 or so votes, which on paper seems reasonable. The NDP nominated Alejandra Bravo, a 2x previous municipal candidate with ties to community orgs and activists through her work with the Broadbent Institute. I believe she is Spanish but speaks conversational Portuguese, which is also a big plus, especially in the northern end of the riding where the NDP typically performs poorly. The big question is whether or not the the typical strategic vote factor will come back to haunt the NDP yet again. Some polls within the last week suggest the CPC is trending upward, which could lead to some anxiety among progressive-type voters who would rather vote Liberal than their preferred choice of the NDP. Definitely a race to watch during the final stretch.|
|Too close to call. Based on the 2019 results, this should be the key target riding for the NDP if they hope to regain a presence in Toronto. As others have mentioned, the incumbent is a low profile Liberal backbencher, but she has proven election watchers wrong twice before.|
|The trouble with the gentrification argument on behalf of the Libs is that it doesn't account for the *kinds* of so-called monied people opting to live in Davenport--that is, money is one thing, ‘lifestyle values’ is another, and in many cases money hasn't made their promiscuous progressivism any less progressive or promiscuous. (Plus, it doesn't account for other adaptations to the new order on behalf of the less monied: sublet rentals, urban intensification, etc.) Also, the painful fact is that the most stubbornly Liberal parts remain the so-called poorest/most ungentrified parts in the N end--and Dzerowicz is exactly the kind of nondescript Lib incumbent sustained more through the inertia of the ungentrified. So to paint NDP strength in Davenport as a two-ships-passing-in-the-night electoral-demographic phenomenon that was good for one victory and no more is really selling things short--particularly in the Jagmeet era, or for that matter the Marit Stiles era...|
|@Libby Burgundy - You make a lot of good points, and gentrification is a definitely a factor that will impact election results within the old city limits. Still, I think the NDP has a lot of things working in its favor that will make them competitive in Davenport next election. For one, based on the 2019 federal results, it is clear that that Davenport is the NDP's best chance in Toronto next time. Secondly, the most recent provincial and municipal election shows that Davenport has a very strong NDP base in Davenport. Marit Stiles won the provincial seat by the sixth largest margin out of 124 seats in the 2018 Ontario election, and Jennifer Keesmaat, the progressive mayoral candidate in the 2018 election, had her strongest showing in the Davenport municipal ward. Lastly, the very real possibility of a CPC implosion next election could lead to less ‘strategic voting,’ i.e. soft-NDP voters who vote Liberal out of fear of a CPC majority.|
|For reasons I outlined in the Toronto-Danforth thread, I do not believe the Liberals will sweep the 416 for a third election in a row. And if one rejects the idea of a sweep, then Davenport (along with TO-Danforth) is most likely to fall. And I believe it will.|
|Lately I'm wondering whether Davenport might have only been winnable by the NDP for the briefest of demographic moments.|
This riding sustained Charles Caccia for decades on the strength of a resounding base of first-generation Canadians of Portuguese and Italian extraction, mostly arriving in the 1950s and 60s. Caccia was uniquely well-positioned to reach this audience, and during this era Davenport was one of the safest Liberal seats outside Montreal.
But this began to change in the 90s. While there's still a definite Portuguese and Italian presence (especially in the quieter pockets of the riding and along the Corso Italia in the northern end), large parts of these communities have decamped for the suburbs, retired to the old country, or simply died off.
For awhile, this was wind in the NDP's sails: in the early to mid 2000s, Davenport was a relatively cheap place to live, so as these immigrant communities gradually declined, the riding attracted many of the sorts of young professionals and young families who are often open to voting NDP. For awhile, Bloor even had a whole long strip of amenities dedicated to serving this community: nightclubs, bars, vegan restaurants, storefront venues. This was Andrew Cash's Davenport.
But in 2021, we really can't describe any part of inner-city Toronto as ‘relatively cheap’. The students are being renovicted, the new construction is mostly for the luxury market, and the people moving to the neighbourhood have enough money to buy property four subway stops from downtown. The southern tip of the riding was already gentrified by the early 2000s, and not only has that action now definitely crossed Bloor, but it's even seeping out from St. Clair and Eglinton. There's money moving into this part of the city, and in the long run, that's not great news for the NDP.
The NDP will certainly be a serious, credible option here. But they've been a serious, credible option since 2004, and they've only actually won the seat once. I wouldn't be amazed if this seat is already out of reach in a normal year: something the NDP might be able to pick off in a Liberal trough election, but as this riding pivots more and more towards affluence, increasingly out of reach under more normal circumstances.
|The only time that the Liberals lost this seat was during the Ignatieff disaster. Liberal hold|
|Andrew Cash is not running again. Cash may have had a quasi-incumbency advantage of sorts, but Davenport seems to have emerged as the most left-wing riding in Toronto. It was also the only ward where John Tory received less than 50% of the vote in 2018. There seems to be a sorting of the urban electorate in inner Toronto where younger/lower income/early-stage gentrification areas are NDP-friendly, while more established, affluent ‘creative class’ type areas have been trending Liberal. Compared to other inner Toronto ridings, Davenport of the former, and it lacks the upper middle class swaths found in University-Rosedale or Parkdale-High Park. Still, the NDP does still hit a wall around St. Clair, where Davenport gives way to working class ethnic-Liberal Toronto, it's still populated by tradesmen rather than Cash's ‘urban worker’ constituency and this being Toronto, the Liberals have lots of support in the more ‘hip’ southern part of the riding too. I am marking this TCTC for now - just a slight drop in national support for the Liberals and slight increase in support for the NDP could make this riding orange. It was after all, the NDP's third best showing in Ontario in terms of popular vote.|
|This riding had the NDP's strongest showing in 2019, and will likely be the NDP's best chance for this round. The incumbent Liberal has a fairly low profile, but the fear of a CPC government could lead to another election of progressives voting strategically. The NDP has not nominated a candidate and word is Andrew Cash will not run this time around.|