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Davenport
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:19:35
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Dzerowicz, Julie


Incumbent:

Julie Dzerowicz

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

108473
102360

48808
45559

12.08 km²
8979.90/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Julie Dzerowicz ** 2325143.70%
Andrew Cash 2181241.00%
Sanjay Bhatia 49219.30%
Hannah Conover-Arthurs 23974.50%
Francesco Ciardullo 4960.90%
Elizabeth Rowley 1380.30%
Troy Young 860.20%
Chai Kalevar 790.10%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Julie Dzerowicz 2194744.30%
Andrew Cash ** 2050641.40%
Carlos Oliveira 523310.60%
Dan Stein 15303.10%
Miguel Figueroa 2610.50%
Chai Kalevar 1070.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

555314.22%
2098553.72%
1089727.90%
13353.42%
Other 2940.75%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Davenport
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Marit Stiles 2761360.27%
Cristina Martins * 855818.68%
Federico Sanchez 737016.09%
Kirsten Snider 16243.54%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1627245.61%
26657.47%
1432240.15%
17845.00%
Other 6311.77%


12/06/21 Libby Burgundy
198.91.168.152
Lately I'm wondering whether Davenport might have only been winnable by the NDP for the briefest of demographic moments.
This riding sustained Charles Caccia for decades on the strength of a resounding base of first-generation Canadians of Portuguese and Italian extraction, mostly arriving in the 1950s and 60s. Caccia was uniquely well-positioned to reach this audience, and during this era Davenport was one of the safest Liberal seats outside Montreal.
But this began to change in the 90s. While there's still a definite Portuguese and Italian presence (especially in the quieter pockets of the riding and along the Corso Italia in the northern end), large parts of these communities have decamped for the suburbs, retired to the old country, or simply died off.
For awhile, this was wind in the NDP's sails: in the early to mid 2000s, Davenport was a relatively cheap place to live, so as these immigrant communities gradually declined, the riding attracted many of the sorts of young professionals and young families who are often open to voting NDP. For awhile, Bloor even had a whole long strip of amenities dedicated to serving this community: nightclubs, bars, vegan restaurants, storefront venues. This was Andrew Cash's Davenport.
But in 2021, we really can't describe any part of inner-city Toronto as ‘relatively cheap’. The students are being renovicted, the new construction is mostly for the luxury market, and the people moving to the neighbourhood have enough money to buy property four subway stops from downtown. The southern tip of the riding was already gentrified by the early 2000s, and not only has that action now definitely crossed Bloor, but it's even seeping out from St. Clair and Eglinton. There's money moving into this part of the city, and in the long run, that's not great news for the NDP.
The NDP will certainly be a serious, credible option here. But they've been a serious, credible option since 2004, and they've only actually won the seat once. I wouldn't be amazed if this seat is already out of reach in a normal year: something the NDP might be able to pick off in a Liberal trough election, but as this riding pivots more and more towards affluence, increasingly out of reach under more normal circumstances.
04/06/21 seasaw
99.225.229.135
The only time that the Liberals lost this seat was during the Ignatieff disaster. Liberal hold
15/05/21 MF
65.92.13.223
Andrew Cash is not running again. Cash may have had a quasi-incumbency advantage of sorts, but Davenport seems to have emerged as the most left-wing riding in Toronto. It was also the only ward where John Tory received less than 50% of the vote in 2018. There seems to be a sorting of the urban electorate in inner Toronto where younger/lower income/early-stage gentrification areas are NDP-friendly, while more established, affluent ‘creative class’ type areas have been trending Liberal. Compared to other inner Toronto ridings, Davenport of the former, and it lacks the upper middle class swaths found in University-Rosedale or Parkdale-High Park. Still, the NDP does still hit a wall around St. Clair, where Davenport gives way to working class ethnic-Liberal Toronto, it's still populated by tradesmen rather than Cash's ‘urban worker’ constituency and this being Toronto, the Liberals have lots of support in the more ‘hip’ southern part of the riding too. I am marking this TCTC for now - just a slight drop in national support for the Liberals and slight increase in support for the NDP could make this riding orange. It was after all, the NDP's third best showing in Ontario in terms of popular vote.
08/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
This riding had the NDP's strongest showing in 2019, and will likely be the NDP's best chance for this round. The incumbent Liberal has a fairly low profile, but the fear of a CPC government could lead to another election of progressives voting strategically. The NDP has not nominated a candidate and word is Andrew Cash will not run this time around.



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