Caputolan, Elvira
	Khan, Adil
	Minas, Michael
	Oliphant, Rob
	Riaz, Syeda
	Robertson, Yvonne
Incumbent:
	Rob Oliphant

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			102508 99820 41320 39723 30.22 km² 3392.00/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Rob Oliphant **	29148	55.80%
	Yvonne Robertson	16304	31.20%
	Laurel MacDowell	3804	7.30%
	Amanda Kistindey	2257	4.30%
	Ian Prittie	444	0.90%
	John Kittredge	277	0.50%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Rob Oliphant	27472	53.80%
	John Carmichael **	19206	37.60%
	Syeda Riaz	3076	6.00%
	Natalie Hunt	848	1.70%
	John Kittredge	325	0.60%
	Elizabeth Hill	84	0.20%
	Sharon Cromwell	75	0.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		19894	43.89%
		4872	10.75%
		18804	41.49%
		1616	3.57%
Other		140	0.31%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Don Valley West    (87.5% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
St. Paul's    (12.5% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Kathleen Wynne *	17802	38.89%
	Jon Kieran	17621	38.49%
	Amara Possian	8620	18.83%
	Morgan Bailey	1268	2.77%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		21830	56.30%
		12504	32.25%
		2665	6.87%
		1237	3.19%
Other		536	1.38%

	18/09/21	bobby 174.92.89.3
Conservative Yvonne Robertson confirmed, withdrew, and then confirmed attendance at the only candidates debate, but in the end chose to attend for only 40 minutes, leaving hundreds of well-heeled online attendees from Bedford Park to the Bridle Path mystified and weirded out. Maybe she had somewhere else to be. It's too bad. Whatever your political stance, no party should take any riding for granted. In DVW of all ridings, a competent Conservative candidate could give the Liberals a run for their money, as it's a two-horse race with no NDP or Green presence to speak of. Maybe one day the Conservatives will nominate such a candidate. Maybe.
	16/09/21	MH 99.254.250.62
Like Toronto St Paul's, this is as safe a Liberal seat as any in Canada outside the island of Montreal. Provincially it stayed Liberal in 2018, even though Kathleen Wynne was an unpopular premier, when most of the province and even many seats in Toronto shifted to the Tories or the NDP. Lots of Oliphant signs on lawns. A Liberal hold.
	08/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
This riding has actually seen some close liberal / conservative races federally and provincially in recent elections. But not really a cpc target this election although 2019 candidate Yvonne Robertson is back for another run. There should have been a provincial by election here but Kathleen Wynne stubbornly decided to stay on as mpp despite the fact its tradition for former premiers to leave queens park. She only held the seat by a tiny margin so the by election could have been an interesting one. Doesn’t matter much federally Rob Oliphant was first elected in 2008 but lost the riding in 2011 when John Carmichael briefly mp for 1 term.
	18/07/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
What highlights how far things have electorally shifted: Don Valley West is now more ‘Lib-safe’ than Don Valley North. In 1988, the last pre-'15 ‘normal-binary’ election where there were political entities with those names, the former gave the Tories a 16.5% margin, the latter gave them a 1.5% margin. The biggest threat to Oliphant would be that of a non-majority in case Thorncliffe distributes its vote around a bit (it went *80%* Liberal in '19; part of a pattern that year of immigrant/multicultural high-rise forests going turbo-Grit, like a mirror version of the ScheerCons' monster shares in the Prairies)
	24/05/21	MF 65.92.13.223
Don Valley West has the highest average income of any riding in Canada. Prior to 1993, it was a Tory riding par excellence - back in the days when the old PCs were more of an ‘elite’ party. With the liberalization of university-educated professionals and the Conservative turn against ‘elites’ DVW has become a solid Liberal riding (with the exception of the narrow 2011 Conservative win). Kathleen Wynne held on to DVW provincially - it does have a sort of ‘Lib Dem rather than Labour’ dynamic. Thorncliffe Park of course - the exception to the otherwise affluent character of the riding - further pads the Liberal margins.