Election Prediction Project

Don Valley West
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:13:25

Constituency Profile


Oliphant, Rob

Robertson, Yvonne


Rob Oliphant

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



30.22 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Rob Oliphant ** 2914855.80%
Yvonne Robertson 1630431.20%
Laurel MacDowell 38047.30%
Amanda Kistindey 22574.30%
Ian Prittie 4440.90%
John Kittredge 2770.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rob Oliphant 2747253.80%
John Carmichael ** 1920637.60%
Syeda Riaz 30766.00%
Natalie Hunt 8481.70%
John Kittredge 3250.60%
Elizabeth Hill 840.20%
Sharon Cromwell 750.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1400.31%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Don Valley West
   (87.5% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   St. Paul's
   (12.5% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Kathleen Wynne * 1780238.89%
Jon Kieran 1762138.49%
Amara Possian 862018.83%
Morgan Bailey 12682.77%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5361.38%

18/07/20 A.S.
What highlights how far things have electorally shifted: Don Valley West is now more ‘Lib-safe’ than Don Valley North. In 1988, the last pre-'15 ‘normal-binary’ election where there were political entities with those names, the former gave the Tories a 16.5% margin, the latter gave them a 1.5% margin. The biggest threat to Oliphant would be that of a non-majority in case Thorncliffe distributes its vote around a bit (it went *80%* Liberal in '19; part of a pattern that year of immigrant/multicultural high-rise forests going turbo-Grit, like a mirror version of the ScheerCons' monster shares in the Prairies)
24/05/21 MF
Don Valley West has the highest average income of any riding in Canada. Prior to 1993, it was a Tory riding par excellence - back in the days when the old PCs were more of an ‘elite’ party. With the liberalization of university-educated professionals and the Conservative turn against ‘elites’ DVW has become a solid Liberal riding (with the exception of the narrow 2011 Conservative win). Kathleen Wynne held on to DVW provincially - it does have a sort of ‘Lib Dem rather than Labour’ dynamic. Thorncliffe Park of course - the exception to the otherwise affluent character of the riding - further pads the Liberal margins.

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