Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:19:54

Constituency Profile


Bains, Indira

Carson, Sean

Di Carlo, Anna

Elue, Afam

Kane, Sasha

Maloney, James

McLachlan, Bill


James Maloney

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



39.55 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

James Maloney ** 3606151.90%
Barry O'Brien 1995228.70%
Branko Gasperlin 827711.90%
Chris Caldwell 41416.00%
Jude Sulejmani 9211.30%
Janice Murray 1630.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

James Maloney 3463853.70%
Bernard Trottier ** 2093232.40%
Phil Trotter 703010.90%
Angela Salewsky 15072.30%
Liz White 2330.40%
Janice Murray 1680.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1830.36%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Christine Hogarth 2262638.35%
Phil Trotter 1940132.89%
Peter Milczyn * 1430524.25%
Chris Caldwell 21383.62%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8171.70%

17/09/21 AL
A recent Blog TO story was done on the NDP candidate Sasha Kane as being one of the youngest female candidates in Canada and Toronto. This might garner her a few more votes with the story and gain her a bit of visibility but not nearly enough to overtake the Liberals or Conservatives. The Liberals are going to win here again over the conservatives.
04/09/21 JT
This is a very good riding for the federal Liberals. James Maloney is the incumbent and while he is just another backbencher in Ottawa he is a very good constituent MP. He is old school and he has lived in south Etobicoke for most of his life. The Conservatives are running the worst campaign seen in this riding in the last 50 years. Boyer, Trottier and O'Brien must be shaking their heads. The Conservatives have almost disappeared on the ground here. The NDP candidate is excellent but the New Democrats haven't won this riding since 1972 and they definitely are not going to win this time.
28/07/21 A.S.
Sure, the riding's history has been predominantly Liberal except in Conservative majority circumstances; however, it *did* wind up w/the best 416 Tory share in '93 (thanks to Patrick Boyer's residual popularity), and it had the best 416 *CPC* results under John Capobianco in '04 and '06. But that was all spot circumstance. At this rate, don't be surprised if on the backs of new home-and-condo-owners, the NDP challenges CPC for 2nd.
24/05/21 seasaw
I agree with Chris on this one, but not because of the condo development. This riding has only elected Tories when they've won a majority and apart from a couple of NDP wins, has always been Liberal. Prospects of a Conservative majority don't look too good at the moment, however that might change in the future, until then, have to call it the way I see it.
07/05/21 Chris N
This riding swung Conservative in 2011 when Ignatieff lost his seat during the national Liberal collapse. Since then, the demographics of this riding have changed significantly, with a massive condo boom in Humber Bay, and to a lesser extent, the Six Points neighborhood. This has brought a younger, more progressive electorate into the riding, who have become a reliable Liberal base.

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