Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:19:54

Constituency Profile


Bains, Indira

Maloney, James


James Maloney

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



39.55 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

James Maloney ** 3606151.90%
Barry O'Brien 1995228.70%
Branko Gasperlin 827711.90%
Chris Caldwell 41416.00%
Jude Sulejmani 9211.30%
Janice Murray 1630.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

James Maloney 3463853.70%
Bernard Trottier ** 2093232.40%
Phil Trotter 703010.90%
Angela Salewsky 15072.30%
Liz White 2330.40%
Janice Murray 1680.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1830.36%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Christine Hogarth 2262638.35%
Phil Trotter 1940132.89%
Peter Milczyn * 1430524.25%
Chris Caldwell 21383.62%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8171.70%

28/07/20 A.S.
Sure, the riding's history has been predominantly Liberal except in Conservative majority circumstances; however, it *did* wind up w/the best 416 Tory share in '93 (thanks to Patrick Boyer's residual popularity), and it had the best 416 *CPC* results under John Capobianco in '04 and '06. But that was all spot circumstance. At this rate, don't be surprised if on the backs of new home-and-condo-owners, the NDP challenges CPC for 2nd.
24/05/21 seasaw
I agree with Chris on this one, but not because of the condo development. This riding has only elected Tories when they've won a majority and apart from a couple of NDP wins, has always been Liberal. Prospects of a Conservative majority don't look too good at the moment, however that might change in the future, until then, have to call it the way I see it.
07/05/21 Chris N
This riding swung Conservative in 2011 when Ignatieff lost his seat during the national Liberal collapse. Since then, the demographics of this riding have changed significantly, with a massive condo boom in Humber Bay, and to a lesser extent, the Six Points neighborhood. This has brought a younger, more progressive electorate into the riding, who have become a reliable Liberal base.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster