Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Guelph
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:58:27
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Jahangir, Aisha

Longfield, Lloyd

Sachan, Ashish


Incumbent:

Lloyd Longfield

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

131794
121688

55927
52090

87.22 km²
1511.10/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Lloyd Longfield ** 3049740.40%
Steve Dyck 1923625.50%
Ashish Sachan 1456819.30%
Aisha Jahangir 929712.30%
Mark Paralovos 10871.40%
Gordon Truscott 4980.70%
Juanita Burnett 1660.20%
Michael Wassilyn 1330.20%
Kornelis Klevering 860.10%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Lloyd Longfield 3430349.10%
Gloria Kovach 1840726.30%
Andrew Seagram 839212.00%
Gord Miller 790911.30%
Alexander Fekri 5200.70%
Kornelis Klevering 1930.30%
Tristan Dineen 1440.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1946032.86%
990516.73%
2564243.30%
36286.13%
Other 5830.98%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Guelph
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Mike Schreiner 2908245.03%
Ray Ferraro 1408421.81%
Agnieszka Mlynarz 1392921.57%
Sly Castaldi 653710.12%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

2201441.52%
1104820.84%
938517.70%
1023019.29%
Other 3480.66%


24/05/21 seasaw
99.225.229.135
Though I do agree with the previous poster that the Liberals are on the driver's seat here, l wouldn't say that this is a sure thing for them. The difference between now and 10 years ago is that back then, the MP was Valeriote, a man from a prominent family and a hardworking constituency man. Now the MP is Longfield, mostly invisible and a government rubber stamp. His decision to abstain from voting for Uygur genocide, along with his controversial comments on this issue and the pandemic may come back to haunt him, or, since we don't know when the next vote will be, maybe forgotten. Also, Justin Trudeau isn't terribly popular in this neck of the woods these days, but that may also change.
09/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
After Mike Schreiner's win for the Ontario Greens in 2018, some thought the Greens could win the riding federally in 2019. However, Guelph has historically been a federal Liberal stronghold. Even during the 2011 Ignatieff collapse, the Liberals were able to hold on to Guelph. I expect the same next election, in what will likely be a more favorable climate for the Liberals than 2011.



Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster