Chiang, Paul
	Kao, Elvin
	Qureshi, Aftab
	Saroya, Bob
Incumbent:
	Bob Saroya

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			123318 104693 39948 38557 84.34 km² 1462.20/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Bob Saroya **	26133	48.90%
	Alan Ho	20484	38.40%
	Gregory Hines	3524	6.60%
	Elvin Kao	2394	4.50%
	Sarah Chung	861	1.60%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Bob Saroya	24605	49.40%
	Bang-Gu Jiang	21596	43.30%
	Colleen Zimmerman	2528	5.10%
	Elvin Kao	1110	2.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		18024	45.83%
		6500	16.53%
		13249	33.69%
		1182	3.01%
Other		376	0.96%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Oak Ridges-Markham    (52.42% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Markham-Unionville    (47.58% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Billy Pang	29305	62.43%
	Amanda Yeung Collucci	8456	18.01%
	Sylvie David	7778	16.57%
	Deborah Moolman	996	2.12%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		15142	43.88%
		14082	40.81%
		3430	9.94%
		1311	3.80%
Other		546	1.58%

	12/09/20	Hans 76.67.76.60
Saroya may have the advantage in lawn signs, but most of his are on public corners. If you look at the signs on individual houses, I think that this riding is a close race between Chiang and Saroya. Saroya has done a lot of things for this riding, but he is only a conservative when its convenient for him. He hardly ever mentioned Otoole on his website or the CPC in his mailings. His biggest problem is that he hasn't distanced himself from the racists and bigots in the conservative party. He should have been out in front and condemned Derek Sloan but instead, he cozied up to the likes of Pierre Poilivre. This is going to be a close race.
	19/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Bob Saroya has held this riding since 2015 which was a surprise to many as all other nearby ridings other than Thornhill went liberal that year. The fact he’s managed to win here says something about his effectiveness as an mp and campaigner during an election.
	04/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Despite the strength of Alan Ho's Lib candidacy, the Con margin nearly doubled in '19--but that's the difference btw/everyone expecting the Libs to win in '15, and everyone expecting the Cons to win in '19. And considering how this was the 2nd best provincial Tory riding in '18, for Saroya to lose share and manage barely over a 10-point margin must have counted as ‘disappointing’. And given polling, a submajority hat trick seems very much a likelihood. Not so much defeat--though I wouldn't rule that out in case O'Toole does a Dion or Iggy.
	29/05/21	KXS 99.247.196.32
I think the Conservatives will hold on to this riding, albeit a narrower margin than 2019. I don't think O'Toole is doing anything to piss off right-leaning Chinese-Canadian voters in Markham. The Liberals actually fielded a strong candidate in the last election, local councillor Alan Ho. I don't think they will be fielding a strong candidate this time around.