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Niagara Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-08 22:20:29
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Badawey, Vance

Speck, Graham


Incumbent:

Vance Badawey

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

109067
105860

49640
45409

301.26 km²
362.00/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Vance Badawey ** 2029235.00%
April Jeffs 1798731.00%
Malcolm Allen 1546926.70%
Michael Tomaino 30545.30%
Andrew Sainz-Nieto 7761.30%
3080.50%
Robert Walker 770.10%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Vance Badawey 1951335.70%
Malcolm Allen ** 1721831.50%
Leanna Villella 1624829.70%
David Clow 13162.40%
Jody Di Bartolomeo 2910.50%
Ron J. Walker 960.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1896939.07%
2095743.17%
697014.36%
12042.48%
Other 4450.92%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Welland
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jeff Burch 2161844.23%
April Jeffs 1833337.51%
Benoit Mercier 577911.82%
Joe Dias 18033.69%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

867420.42%
1131326.64%
2033447.88%
17134.03%
Other 4351.02%


08/07/20 Jade French
108.162.172.214
Niagara Centre is bound to be one of the closest races in the the country. The liberal incumbent is unknown on the hill and has little to show to his community but he is generally liked. The conservative candidate is a Welland city councillor with a reputation for being a blowhard but he has a bit of a following. The NDP are running a new candidate, Melissa McGlashan who is an active volunteer for a huge range of community organisations and advocacy groups but who might lack name recognition outside of that circle.
It'll definitely be a close race between the NDP and the Liberals in this riding. At this stage, it's too close to call but I'd say the odds are very very very slightly in Vance Badawey's favour but it'll still be a horse race.
08/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
In the last two elections, this was one of the few three-way races in the Golden Horseshoe. The Liberal incumbent has a low profile on the Hill but a solid presence in the community. I anticipate this will be another horse race.



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