Election Prediction Project

Parkdale-High Park
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:28:30

Constituency Profile


Taylor, Paul

Virani, Arif


Arif Virani

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



14.78 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Arif Virani ** 2885247.40%
Paul Taylor 1918031.50%
Adam Pham 801513.20%
Nick Capra 39166.40%
Greg Wycliffe 6431.10%
Alykhan Pabani 1190.20%
Terry Parker 1190.20%
Lorne Gershuny 430.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Arif Virani 2462342.00%
Peggy Nash ** 2356640.20%
Ian Allen 764113.00%
Adam Phipps 17433.00%
Mark Jeftovic 6101.00%
Terry Parker 1910.30%
Lorne Gershuny 1000.20%
Carol Royer 930.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5521.08%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Parkdale-High Park
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Bhutila Karpoche 3240759.41%
Adam Pham 982118%
Nadia Guerrera 927117%
Halyna Zalucky 25444.66%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6011.33%

07/06/21 Chris N
This will likely stay Liberal next election. If the NDP are to make any waves in the sea of red in Toronto, it will probably be Davenport to the east, not Parkdale High Park.
15/05/21 MF
The close race many were predicting last time didn't come to be: Arif Virani cruised to victory, winning by a margin of nearly 10,000 votes. The NDP is running Paul Taylor again and seem to be treating PHP as their #1 target. Although his profile has increased, it's still a big hill to climb. The NDP has a very hard time in the more affluent/centrist western half of the riding (Swansea, Bloor West Village), while Roncesvalles and the Junction are increasingly populated by affluent families that vote Liberal. Virani even edged out Taylor in Parkdale. The Liberals under Justin Trudeau have made major inroads among culturally liberal urban voters in inner Toronto while the NDP have lost ground. It looks like neighboring Davenport has more favorable conditions for an NDP victory. Unless there's a big shift in the national polls, this should stay Liberal.
11/05/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
Given that they're running the same candidates as last time and the liberals won by over 15%, I don't see why the results would be any different. Liberal hold.

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