Clayton, Nicholas
	Dowdall, Terry
	Gillies, Lucas
	Minatel, Adam
	Munro, Bren
	Stouffer, Ken
Incumbent:
	Terry Dowdall

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			129944 116307 61293 51086 1863.34 km² 69.70/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Terry Dowdall	32812	43.50%
	Lorne Kenney	23925	31.70%
	Sherri Jackson	8589	11.40%
	Ilona Matthews	8462	11.20%
	Richard Sommer	1416	1.90%
	Tony D'Angelo	305	0.40%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Kellie Leitch **	30612	46.60%
	Mike MacEachern	25352	38.60%
	David Matthews	6332	9.60%
	JoAnne Fleming	2923	4.40%
	Len Noordegraaf	528	0.80%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		26765	48.44%
		9631	17.43%
		7000	12.67%
		3059	5.54%
Other		8807	15.94%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Simcoe-Grey    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Jim Wilson *	34094	55.93%
	David Matthews	13444	22.05%
	Dan Hambly	8780	14.4%
	Jesseca Perry	4192	6.88%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		14296	30.40%
		22288	47.39%
		6739	14.33%
		3707	7.88%

	14/09/21	C B 24.57.1.233
I think, although it’s composition has changed considerably, this riding should be watched more closely. In 1993, this was the only riding in Ontario that didn’t elect a Liberal. It elected a Reform MP. While Reform and the PPC are very different parties, and the political climate is indeed very different, this riding will give us an indication early on as to if the PPC is doing well. Wildflower - perhaps your predictions would be taken a little more seriously if you didn’t apply your personal political opinions to the entire electorate at large. There are people, believe it or not, who don’t share your views.
	05/09/21	Wildflower 172.83.175.119
Always been Conservative,but things could change with the right wing vote splitting. mark this one as a toss up because some people want more action on climate change & they dont feel comfortable paying user fees and having a 2 tier healthcare system
	17/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Terry Dowdall is a first term mp but Simcoe Grey is a long time conservative riding in rural Ontario so would expect him to hold it even as it grows and becomes less rural
	04/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Finally, after the successive Guergis and Leitch debacles, Simcoe-Grey has a chance to be the sensible-shoes *boring* Conservative riding it was always meant to be (and indeed, long seemed to be provincially until Jim Wilson was tripped up by his own seamy underbelly). The biggest possible threat would be through PPC-induced undermining--and btw/a Reform/Alliancey past and the notion of the unmasked-and-proud-of-it partying at Wasaga, it can't be counted out here. But then we'd be looking at Simcoe seats won with around a third of the vote or less--which seems a little far-fetched.
	27/05/21	MF 65.92.13.223
With the shift of the affluent and educated toward the Liberals, Collingwood and the Blue Mountains have become the most reliably Liberal part of the riding (both John Tory and former Toronto mayor John Sewell have vacation homes in the area, reflecting its ‘establishmentarian’ character). The Conservatives however win Wasaga Beach (the Jersey Shore of Canada?) and the rural areas. They should be able to hold on unless the Conservative campaign really tanks.